Is The Latest Climate Report Too Much Of A Downer?
Monday, March 31, 2014
Reading through the latest report from the UN-sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), it's hard not to feel despondent about the state of the world.
The report's colorful charts and tables tell of droughts and fires. Depleted fisheries and strained cropland. A world in which heat-related disease is on the rise and fresh water is growing scarce.
"It's risk, risk, risk, risk, risk," says Richard Tol, a climate economist at the University of Sussex. "Climate change is dangerous and we're all going to die and we're all going to starve."
Tol is a coordinating lead author on one chapter about the economic impacts of climate change.
But Tol doesn't believe climate change will be as destructive as the report might lead some to believe. He took his name off the dire final summary because he felt it didn't accurately account for human ingenuity.
Take crop yields for example. The report says climate change will cause them to fall by a few percent per decade. But Tol says technological innovation will likely raise crop yields by 10 percent or more each decade.
"So it's not that crop yields are going to fall but they're going to rise more slowly because of climate change," he says, "and then of course it doesn't sound as alarming."
Tol adds, "Sea-level rise may be quite dramatic, if it weren't for the fact that somebody in China invented the dyke 3,000 years ago." The Netherlands has been able to hold off the sea for more than a century, and others could do the same with proven technology.
Now to be clear: Tol still believes in climate change. And he still thinks it's a really serious problem. In fact that's why he's speaking out—he thinks this report will split believers and deniers at just the time there needs to be a consensus on how to keep the world from getting even warmer.
"I think there is a real risk of this draft further polarizing the climate debate," he says. And if we don't all work together to lower carbon emissions, he says, things will get even worse in the long term.
The report's other authors say its gloomy tone is entirely justified. "Richard's a great guy, I love him, but he's not in the center of the scientific community, says Chris Field, who co-chaired the full report. He says Tol is one of more than 300 lead authors.
Field thinks the report appropriately warns of some difficult times ahead. The world's poorest will be especially vulnerable, he says.
But Field acknowledges that predicting exactly what will happen is difficult, because people aren't like melting glaciers. They don't just sit there; they adapt.
"People have a tendency of changing what they do when they realize they have a problem, that's the core essence of adaptation," he says.
The new report does say adaptation could make climate change much less damaging to society. For instance, most projections point to a rise in global temperature of at least 3.6 degrees (Fahrenheit) by the end of the century. But Field thinks improved transportation infrastructure, better disaster response and healthcare could all help lessen the rise's impact.
And adapting won't necessarily cost a lot, adds Saleemul Hok, director of the International Center for Climate Change and Development based in Bangladesh.
Preparing for extreme weather like floods and cyclones doesn't always mean building huge barriers against the ocean. "In most cases, it's just societal preparedness," Hok says. "It's people having shelters to go to."
"The rich don't have any particular advantage here, it's not technology that makes a difference," Hok says.
Tol, Hok and Field all agree: Climate change is happening; humans aren't helpless, they can adapt. But society will also need to make changes to avoid further warming.
Otherwise, things will get even more depressing.
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