The Cuban flag is flying over the Cuban Embassy in the United States for the first time in 54 years after the two countries restored diplomatic relations in December 2014, but not everyone is celebrating the renewed flow of mojitos from the embassy's Hemingway Bar.
Presidential hopefuls Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush, who both call the heavily Cuban-American Miami area home, denounced Monday's new step in U.S.-Cuba relations.
"History will remember July 20, 2015 as Obama's Capitulation Monday, the day two sworn enemies of the United States were able to out-maneuver President Obama to secure historic concessions," Rubio, who is of Cuban heritage, stated, also referencing the UN Security Council's endorsement of the Iran deal which happened Monday.
"Monday's events at the UN, Washington and Havana leave no doubt that we have entered the most dangerous phase of the Obama presidency in which the president is flat-out abandoning America's vital national security interests to cozy up to the world's most reprehensible regimes," Rubio said.
Bush, who maintained his position against Obama's policy of normalizing relations with Cuba, was noticeably softer in his tone regarding Monday's events.
"Better judgment is called for in relations far and near. Ninety miles to the South, there's talk of a state visit by our outgoing president," Bush said in a speech in Tallahassee, Fla., on Monday. "But we don't need a glorified tourist to go to Havana in support of a failed Cuba. We need an American president to go to Havana in solidarity with a free Cuban people, and I'm ready to be that president."
Bush currently leads Rubio among Cuban-American Republicans by double digits. In a poll published Saturday of registered voters in Miami-Dade County, Bush led Rubio in Cuban-American votes by 12 percentage points, 43 to 31 percent. Ted Cruz, whose father emigrated from Cuba, received another 7 percent of support in the polls.
Florida, a swing state, is an important part of any presidential candidate's electoral vote calculus, and Cuban Americans have long been a powerful group within Florida, especially in Miami-Dade County. The Miami area is home to the largest population of Cuban heritage outside of Cuba.
Bush's relative success among Cuban Americans in the polls with his slightly softer stance reflects a larger trend. Cuban Americans are not as against normalization as they have been in the past.
Once a community known for standing in solidarity in support of the trade embargo, steering U.S. policy toward Cuba, the Cuban Americans of Miami-Dade County are showing rifts in their political views.
According to recent polls, just over half of Cuban-Americans favor normalizing relations with Cuba. As of March 2015, 51 percent of Cuba-Americans approved of President Obama's plan to normalize relations with Cuba, while only 40 percent disagreed with his plan. Another poll, conducted in the spring of 2014 by Florida International University pollsters, found that 52 percent of Cuban Americans in Miami-Dade County favored ending the U.S. embargo of Cuba.
That's quite different from what the numbers used to show.
In the 1993 version of the same Florida International University poll, 87 percent of Cuban-American respondents in Miami-Dade County favored increasing international economic pressure on Cuba, and 80 percent favored maintaining no diplomatic relations with Cuba.
The changing Cuban-American demographic may serve as a window into the group's changing opinion. While 68 percent of Cuban Americans were born in Cuba in 2000, that number decreased to 57 percent by 2013, according to the Pew Research Center.
The decrease in share of the Cuban-born Cuban-American population matters because of the two groups' differing political views. While 45 percent of those born in Cuba supported Obama's policy of normalization in 2014, 66 percent of those born in the United States favored normalization.
These emerging differences in the Cuban-American community's views may also play a role in the Democrats' increasing ability to court its members. While 70 percent of Cuban Americans polled in Miami-Dade County were registered as Republicans in 1991, that number sank to only 53 percent in May of 2014. Another 25 percent were registered as Democrats.
Over the past several months, since President Obama first announced his policy change toward Cuba in December, nearly every GOP presidential candidate has come out with a statement denouncing the President's normalization policy. Scott Walker, Ted Cruz, Lindsey Graham, Bobby Jindal, and Mike Huckabee have joined Bush and Rubio in denouncing Obama's policy of restoring full diplomatic ties.
GOP candidate Sen. Rand Paul has been the only candidate who stood out in his opinion, a position that caused a scuffle with Rubio earlier this year.
"After 50 years of conflict, why not try a new approach?" Paul wrote in a Dec. 19, 2014 Facebook statement. "The United States trades and engages with other communist nations, such as China and Vietnam. Why not Cuba?"
Paul continued his statement to make a dig at fellow GOP contender Rubio's strong stance against the president's policy.
"Seems to me, Senator Rubio is acting like an isolationist who wants to retreat to our borders and perhaps build a moat. I reject this isolationism," Paul wrote. "Finally, let's be clear that Senator Rubio does not speak for the majority of Cuban-Americans. A recent poll demonstrates that a large majority of Cuban-Americans actually support normalizing relations between our countries."
Rubio retorted, "He has no idea what he's talking about," on Fox News' The Kelly File.
Democratic presidential hopefuls have openly praised the president's steps toward normalizing U.S.-Cuban relations, and with the majority of Cuban Americans approving of the president's policy, that might just gain the Democrats a few more votes.
"As I have said, the best way to bring change to Cuba is to expose its people to the values, information, and material comforts of the outside world," Clinton said on Dec. 17, 2014, when Obama first announced his plan to change U.S. policy toward Cuba. "The goal of increased U.S. engagement in the days and years ahead should be to encourage real and lasting reforms for the Cuban people. And the other nations of the Americas should join us in this effort."
Sen. Bernie Sanders made similar remarks on the same day.
"I applaud the president for beginning discussions to establish full diplomatic relations with Cuba, just like most of the rest of the world. This is a major step forward in ending the 55-year Cold War with Cuba," Sanders said in a statement.
With shifting opinions among Cuban-Americans on normalization of U.S. relations with Cuba, the popular Republican opinion may not be against normalization of U.S.-Cuba relations for many more election cycles.
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