Hurricane Patricia is bearing down on the western Mexico coast today. Forecasters say this could be potentially catastrophic. It's a monster storm with sustained winds of 200mph. That's the most powerful ever recorded by the National Hurricane Center either in the eastern Pacific or Atlantic basin.
Yesterday Patricia (pron: puh-TRIH-shuh) went from a weak tropical storm to a top-of-the-scale category 5 hurricane in 25 hours. It's believed to be the fastest strengthening ever observed. And it's likely to get stronger. Some models show the storm could reach sustained winds of 220mph. That's unheard of.
Some have compared this to Super Typhoon Haiyan which struck the Philippines in 2013. There are some important distinctions between those two storms. Haiyan's winds (either 174mph or 196mph – because of different estimates) were estimated using satellite observations. Patricia's winds are confirmed by U.S. Hurricane Hunter aircraft which flew into the storm and measured the actual winds and atmospheric pressure.
Patricia is a 'small' storm – the most powerful winds don't extend very far beyond the eye of the storm. Perhaps only about 30 or 40 miles. It's similar in size to Hurricane Andrew – a devastating but compact hurricane that walloped south Florida in 1992. Also, the storm surge from Patricia might not be as bad given the rapid intensification. Still, later today, it will smack Mexico very, very hard. The threat of rain, flooding and mudslides will be the biggest killer in this storm.
The rapid intensification is fueled primarily by one thing: very, very warm ocean waters. 87-degrees where the storm is swirling above. Not only that but the warm waters are very deep — adding more fuel to the storm. This is an El Nino event. The number of category 5 hurricanes in the Pacific Basin has been impressive this year – but not unprecedented. Meteorologists and other climate watchers are already asking: "Is Hurricane Patricia what global warming looks like?"
Also, this is a 'category 5' storm...the top of the Saffir-Simpson scale. If the categories went higher (as some have suggested in recent years), Patricia would actually be labeled as a category 7 storm.
While all of the attention is being paid to Mexico in the short term, there will be impacts to the U.S. too. Once the storm comes ashore, it'll weaken considerably. While the National Hurricane Center says it's possible Patricia will dissipate completely 36 hours after landfall, it doesn't mean the storm will be done. The remnants will make their way across the Gulf of Mexico and into Texas and Louisiana. Some areas in the U.S. could see a foot of rain or more in the coming days.
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