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How The Absence Of Cruz And Kasich Could Affect Other California Races

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump is joined by his wife, Melania, right, and daughter Ivanka, left, as he arrives for a primary night news conference in New York, May 3, 2016.
Associated Press
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump is joined by his wife, Melania, right, and daughter Ivanka, left, as he arrives for a primary night news conference in New York, May 3, 2016.

How The Absence Of Cruz And Kasich Could Affect Other California Races
How The Absence Of Cruz And Kasich Could Affect Other California Races GUEST:Bob Schuman, Republican political consultant, The Schuman Group

Apparently all over but the shouting. Donald trumps two last competitors dropped out of the Republican presidential race yesterday. Now the way seems clear for Donald Trump who's never held public office to become the GOP presidential nominee. What will this mean for Republicans running in the so-called down ticket races and what would it do to turn out. Had these and other questions for my guest Bob Schuman. He's a former chairman of the Republican Party of San Diego. Welcome to the program. Thank you. Last time we spoke you were not a Donald Trump supporter. To support him now? Yes. He's going to be the party nominee so I'm supporting him. He's the party nominee so you support him. Is that a heartfelt support? Well, I'd say right now it's solid but not enthusiastic. You expect to be? I'm hoping so. I want to say couple things happen. I love to see him surround himself -- he's beginning to bring in more professionals around him. I'd like to see him to assemble a team of advisers that we can have a lot of confidence in. I would love to see him be more presidential than he was through the primaries. Many -- many established Republicans have been critical Donald Trump. They think he's bad for the GOP. Pentagram tweeted, if we nominate Trump we will get destroyed. There's also talk about a Republicans for Hillary chapter. To see Republicans in California and San Diego really uniting behind Trump? I do. Lindsey Graham commented [Indiscernible] John McCain former advisor ran one of the worst presidential campaigns in American history. Their opinions don't matter to anybody. There's always an [Indiscernible] after these primers. They eventually will coalesce. I think of bigger more telling issue is in Pennsylvania 60,000 Democrats switched registration so they could vote for Trump. That's real. That's not theoretical. That's not people sitting around the kitchen table saying was to anybody but Trump movement. I don't really see that kitchen fire. But Trump has been such a divisive year within the Republican Party. How to unite behind him connect -- behind him? It's the nature of the beast. I think the fact that there were so many candidates and some good candidates, there was a lot of passion for -- behind all this candidates. It's hard. I've worked to presidential's at high levels. You get emotional about your candidate. When your candidate is out you don't automatically jump to somebody else. It's going to take a while. I'm sure that they are moving as quickly as they can to sort a five the establishment, I think Trump is find the base party. If the establishment types that he's going to work harder. California Republicans were hoping that the battle of the GOP nomination would bring lots of voters to the polls in June. Now what I think it will soften a little bit. In cases like this, the people that were backing the winner will turn out anyway. The people that were not as enthusiastic -- for instance crew supporters of any be disappointed. And they may not turn out like they were going to. I think the cruise supporters were much more passionate. He was more of a traditional conservative Republican. I think they're probably going to turn out in the same numbers. The question will be, with the Trump folks, as you know we had record turnouts in every state. It was largely because of the attraction and uniqueness of the Trump campaign. A lot of those voters by definition are occasional voters. The question would be, are those voters and turn out? I would guess not the same numbers. So earlier this week, we asked San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer, he said he was backing K-6. He said he did not believe Trump would be the nominee. Hottest Trump affect Kevin Faulconer who may have aspirations to run for higher office? I'm not sure that there's any access between the presidential candidate and a Mayor. It doesn't happen. My guess is down the line Kevin may do what some other Republicans are doing, give support but not endorse. Is a fine line but it keeps you happy with the Republican base. Kevin has bigger fish to fry. He has a two ballot initiatives regarding the Stadium and the convention center. He wants to do the best he can to make sure he gets the majority of the Council. I don't see this impacting them in the least. So the Republican Party in California was already having something of a long crisis. What does Donald Trump to for the GOP in California? That's a good question. I don't think it can get worse. The party has had a huge problem with Hispanic since prop 209 and I can't remember what year that was. We haven't really figured it out. We haven't been able to turn around. I don't think it gets worse. I don't see it getting dramatically better either. Ivan speaking with Bob Schuman of Republican consultant the Schuman group in San Diego. Thank you. You are welcome. Thanks for having me.

The departure of Texas Senator Ted Cruz, Ohio Governor John Kasich and a competitive Republican primary in California could depress what was expected to be a surge in voter turnout.

That could be a problem for Republicans in other state races, but an expert in voter turnout said it likely won't be.

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George Mason University political science professor Michael McDonald runs the United States Elections Project. He said the lack of a competitive race will likely hurt Republican enthusiasm — a bit.

"There will be a dampening, but it won't be a huge drop-off of Republican turnout," McDonald said. "There's still the state elections on the ballot, and there's still going to be residual interest for voters to express their interest in Trump."

McDonald points out that, in other states, voters cast ballots for candidates who had already pulled out of the race.

But a drop in Republican votes could hurt the party in state races, where Democrats and Republicans run against each other and the top two vote-getters advance, such as in the election for California's open U.S. Senate seat.

McDonald thinks the drop in turnout won't be large enough to sway many races.

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"You probably still are going to see higher turnout than you normally do for a primary election in California," McDonald said.

The Public Policy Institute of California reports the state's voter turnout has ranked in the top 10 in every presidential primary since 1980.