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Comments made by AKEngineer

Is Whooping Cough Vaccine Working?

Stats can be confusing to those who don't understand them....

"I did hear it was broadcast on the news that 80% of Pertussis cases in Washington was of people who were current on all their DTAP and TDAP vaccines....."

So I made a spreadsheet to see how that works out.

Even if vaccines were 90% effective, assuming those who weren't vaccinated had a 40% chance of not contracting Whooping cough when exposed, and assuming an immunization rate of 95%, a whopping 76% of those who contracted the illness would have been current on their vaccinations.

If you drop it down to 80% effective, the percentage of people infected who are vaccinated goes to 86%

The stat hiding in the background is that the percentage of people who were NOT infected who were immunized is 98% and 97%, respectively.

So really, vaccines can be (and are) remarkably effective, and still give you your "80% of the cases were those who are vaccinated" stat.

Anyone who uses a stat like this as an argument against vaccines needs to take Statistical Analysis 101, in my opinion.
Just as the CDC said, "statistically, higher vaccination rates increases the probability a sick person will have been immunized."

May 4, 2012 at 11:50 a.m. ( | suggest removal )