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Comments made by FedCake

When Will Local Real Estate Market Rebound?

The commentators on this show don't seem to perceive the fact that this is not a mere recession, it is an epic banking crisis masked by the rapid operation of the Fed's money pump. Show me another real estate bust over the last fifty years when the building industry went into a virtual shutdown, and when home prices dropped by thirty or so percent on a nationwide basis. There wasn't one!

And as to the comments regarding how current sale prices are unrepresentative, there is a name for the prices for which homes are currently selling, which is "comparables," meaning the prices for which homes sell today set the price level buyers will be willing to pay tomorrow. The fact that many are distress sales should be highly informative, as the Anderson School Forecast that came out just today suggests California unemployment rates will stay high through 2013 or so, suggesting that there will be plenty more distress sales to come before the market bottoms out.


March 10, 2011 at 10:45 p.m. ( | suggest removal )

When Will Local Real Estate Market Rebound?

"Just wait and see what happens when rates hit 5%, 6%, 7%."

Given that the Fed has been deliberately suffocating interest rates ever since the economy crashed in Fall 2008, what makes you think rates will ever again return to the 5%+ range?

March 10, 2011 at 10:38 p.m. ( | suggest removal )

When Will Local Real Estate Market Rebound?

The "sub-markets are different" argument holds little water, as home buyers can pick and choose where they want to live. If area A is far cheaper than area B after considering the relative desirability of the two areas, guess where everyone is going to locate?

I realize David Lereah's book was entitled "All Real Estate is Local," but it sells on Amazon for pennies for a good reason.

March 10, 2011 at 10:36 p.m. ( | suggest removal )