Video Transcript:

GLORIA PENNER(HOST):  As we begin the Labor Day weekend, we look at whether there is anything to celebrate on the job front. San Diego's unemployment rate has doubled since the beginning of the economic recession. 80,000 people have lost their jobs. Most of them in the construction and finance sectors. But SANDAG's chief economist, Marney Cox, says there may be good news to look forward to. 

MARNEY COX (SANDAG’S Chief Economist): To put it in perspective for San Diego, we entered into this recession a little earlier than the national level did, maybe six-plus months or so. Actually, if you take a look at our unemployment numbers today, I think we're bumping along on the bottom. The region's economy is ready to turn around. It's been through all of the declines it needs to wring out any of those inefficient issues and the economy is ready to turn around. You can begin to see some of this with the stimulus program that's beginning to effect in San Diego. 
Our unemployment rate, although 10 percent, not quite bad as the state overall and it seems to have stabilized by not getting substantially worse in short periods of time. I think what we'll really foresee on the horizon, the state of California's budget issue, and whether or not a lot of the public education sector can't put people back to work.  Then, that would be an unforeseen or unanticipated problem that not all the state would have to work, but the local level too. 

PENNER: So, Barbara, is Marney Cox's assessment of our unemployment situation realistic? Optimistic? Accurate? What do you think?

BARBARA BRY(Opinion Editor): Well, I think Marney's correct in that, I don't think the unemployment situation in San Diego is going to get a lot worse. But, at the same time, I don't see it improving significantly until 2011. I mean, the construction industry, which is a lot of good high-paying jobs, as he said, has been the hardest hit sector. And that's going to be about the slowest to come back. Housing is still in decline, people aren't buying new homes, and until that starts to turn around we're not going to see a rebound in the construction sector. Yes, there are some stimulus construction projects, like the big hospital that's being built up at Camp Pendleton, but overall this is a very abysmal time for the San Diego economy and unemployment here. 

PENNER: But, I'm wondering David, according to Marney Cox, our unemployment rate is not as bad as the rest of the state. Why is this? 

DAVID ROLLAND (Editor, City Beat): I am honestly not sure. I think it's interesting; I go out a lot to eat, and to visit bars and things like that. The service sector seems robust to me when I go out there. So, maybe that's it. The other thing he was thinking is that SANDAG, who he works for, was a big proponent in bringing federal stimulus money locally. So, of course, he has an incentive, I think, to say that it is partially responsible for the beginning of a turnaround here. I don't know that we really know that. 

BRY: We have a much more diversified economy than most other regions in the state. I mean, we have technology; we have life sciences; we have tourism; we have agriculture; we have the military; we have the defense sector; the services sector, we have a much more diversified economy and that's why out unemployment rate is not as bad as the rest of the state's. 

ROLLAND: What's interesting about that is I've spoken to Marney Cox about the diversity of this economy and he's concerned, at least he was a couple of years ago, when we first talked about this. Locally, we were putting much more emphasis on creating more tourism jobs, more service sector jobs that tend to be lower value jobs than manufacturing and some of the things Barbara is talking about. 

PENNER: So, how can new jobs be created so that some of those, perhaps, lowering paying jobs won't be dependent on so that some of our unemployed may find work. 

BRY: Well, two ideas Gloria. One, use some of the federal stimulus money, if it could be used for construction projects, for parks, water projects, schools, things that would have a long-term impact in the community. And second, to start some sort of venture capital fund using government money combined with private money that could invest in early-stage life sciences and technology companies which do provide the high-paying jobs for our region. 

PENNER: Those certainly are higher-paying jobs, I'm just wondering, David, with such a high unemployment rate at this point, Are we seeing the gap, say between, middle- and low-income people and the upper-income people growing? 

ROLLAND: I think we were seeing that before this recession hit. And, from what I understand, that trajectory has continued. That's always my big concern, is that, we have a natural –well, I wouldn't say natural- we have a trajectory where people that have money get more money, poor people are getting poorer. At the same time, the sensibilities of the people in the country, the electorate, tends to want people to take personal responsibility, and they don't want to pay for people on welfare and child-care and social services and that sort of thing. So it's going to be harder and harder for people to make end's meet. 

PENNER: That's material for another whole segment.  Thank-you very much, David Rolland, Barbara Bry.