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Politics

Trump Holds Narrow Lead Over Cruz In California Primary

Republican presidential candidates, businessman Donald Trump and Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, argue as Ohio Gov. John Kasich listens during a Republican presidential primary debate at Fox Theatre in Detroit, March 3, 2016.
Associated Press
Republican presidential candidates, businessman Donald Trump and Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, argue as Ohio Gov. John Kasich listens during a Republican presidential primary debate at Fox Theatre in Detroit, March 3, 2016.

California Counts is a collaboration of KPBS, KPCC, KQED and Capital Public Radio to report on the 2016 election. The coverage focuses on major issues and solicits diverse voices on what's important to the future of California.

A new Field Poll finds businessman Donald Trump has a slight lead over Texas Sen. Ted Cruz among Republican voters ahead of California's June primary.

The poll released Thursday found 39 percent of likely GOP voters back Trump, while 32 percent support Cruz, 18 percent support Ohio Gov. John Kasich and 11 percent are undecided or plan to support someone else.

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But the poll found significant regional differences, a noteworthy factor since 159 of California's 172 delegates to the Republican National Convention will be decided by who wins each of the state's 53 congressional district races.

Cruz leads in Los Angeles County and the Central Valley/Sierra areas, while Trump leads in other areas of Southern California and the San Francisco Bay Area. Kasich has his strongest showing in the San Francisco Bay Area, the poll found.

"Should these regional differences persist, it would dilute the delegate advantages accrued by the winner of the June 7 California primary," Field Poll director Mark DiCamillo wrote.

The poll also reported that many of Trump's California supporters are the same voters who backed action star Arnold Schwarzenegger when he ran in the state's historic recall election for governor in 2003.

"Voters who say they voted for Schwarzenegger in 2003 prefer Trump over Cruz nearly three to one," DiCamillo said.

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Trump also continues to struggle with women voters. The poll found just 31 percent of GOP women prefer him, compared to 35 percent for Cruz.

The Field Poll surveyed 558 likely Republican voters in English and Spanish by telephone from March 24 to April 4. It has a sampling error margin of plus or minus 4 percentage points for likely voters.