Friday, November 30, 2012
The University of San Diego Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate today released its Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego, which showed a 0.3 percent increase for October.
USD professor Alan Gin called the climb "modest,'' noting it was half that of September.
He said the climb in the index was led by moderate gains in building permits issued for residential construction, consumer confidence and the outlook for the national economy. Building permit totals have increased for eight months in a row, while consumer confidence was up for the 10th time in the last 11 months, he said.
The other components of the index -- unemployment, help-wanted advertising and local stock prices -- were virtually unchanged, according to Gin.
"October's modest gain, with none of the components advancing significantly and with three being unchanged as indicated above, epitomizes the current state of the economy,'' Gin said. "The outlook is for more of the same, although the local economy is expected to pick up some in 2013.''
The region should gain 25,000 to 30,000 jobs next year, pushing the county's unemployment rate below 8 percent, Gin said. He said the construction industry should be among the sectors adding workers.
The professor said national economic data has been "generally positive, although not spectacular.''
The index stood at 122.6 in October, the highest mark since March 2008. By comparison, the low point of the recession was 100.7 one year later, and the pre-recession high was 143.8 in February 2006.