Donald Trump may be backing down — sort of.
The billionaire businessman was the only GOP presidential candidate not to raise his hand at last month's debate to pledge he wouldn't run as a third-party candidate.
Now, however, it seems he's poised to promise not to undertake an independent bid if he loses the Republican nomination.
Trump's announcement is expected at a 2 p.m. EST press conference at Trump Tower in New York City. That's after a 1 p.m. meeting with Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus, where he's expected to sign the pledge. But a GOP source stresses, "With Trump, nothing is certain until it's final."
Even if Trump inks the pledge, it's not a given that he won't mount a third-party run — or that he'll even stand by this one. The RNC pledge isn't legally binding, and there's nothing holding him to it if he decides the party at a later date isn't treating him fairly.
The move appears to be aimed at making sure he qualifies for early primary ballots. South Carolina, which holds the first primary in the South, has a similar pledge affixed to its ballot qualifications, which must be submitted by the end of September. Speaking in the Palmetto State last week, Trump demurred on whether he would sign it, insisting there was plenty of time.
But Trump seemed to be leaning toward signing it at an event last weekend in Nashville.
"We're going to make a decision very soon," he told reporters. "And I think a lot of people are going to be very happy."
With the clock ticking and pressure mounting, Trump appears to be bending to the party — at least for now.
Bottom line — Trump has to sign these pledges if he wants to be considered a serious candidate in the short run. He wouldn't even be able to get on the GOP ballot in some important states like South Carolina and possibly Virginia and North Carolina, which are also considering loyalty pledges.
Whether those are enforceable is another matter.
There's a history of loyalty pledges in parties
Parties can determine who gets on their ballot. And when candidates have refused to sign a loyalty oath, they haven't been permitted to run in the primary.
In 2008, then-Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich sued to try to get on the Texas Democratic ballot after he wouldn't sign the party's pledge, but courts upheld the decision.
Richard Winger, editor of Ballot Access News, said while the primary ballot is enforceable, the general election is a different story.
Trump is stating, in good faith, that he won't run as any other party's candidate or an independent if he doesn't win the nomination, but there's still no legal muster behind such a pledge.
"They only have moral force. They can't enforce it," Winger said. "But it's embarrassing for people to give their word that they would not do something and then do it."
Some states do have sore-loser laws. If a candidate loses a primary, that candidate can't run as an independent in the general election. While that's mostly been in congressional races, some may also try to get it to apply to presidential elections, if it came to that.
But Winger said that could be a difficult argument, too. In his most recent issue of Ballot Access News, he notes that 34 states who do have sore-loser laws have precedents where they have allowed a candidate to run again, even if they lost the primary.
In some cases, that may apply only to an independent run. In 2012, former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson sought and lost the GOP nomination for president. Instead, he ran as the Libertarian Party's nominee, and wasn't allowed on the Michigan ballot.
However, that was because he was running under another party's banner — had he simply been running as an independent, he would have been allowed.
And in states that hold caucuses instead of primaries, enforcement of a pledge could also prove difficult.
So, while there is plenty of legal wiggle room for Trump, this is the surest sign yet that he is trying to play within GOP rules. His actions could engender goodwill from some in the establishment, even though many remain skeptical of his intentions.
With where he stands in the polls and with the size of crowds he's drawing, party leaders have to recognize his staying power and that there is feasibly a chance he could be the Republican nominee.
For Trump, there is a bright side in signing the pledge, too. If he does win the GOP nomination, now his other rivals, who have badmouthed and beat up on him, will be the ones eating crow — and backing his candidacy.
Copyright 2015 NPR. To see more, visit http://www.npr.org/.
