Democrats are certain to lose their majority this year -- if not in Congress, than among governors.
Democrats, who lost two governorships last fall, now hold a bare majority in statehouses -- 26 out of 50. But Republicans are confident of making further gains, which would give them a symbolically important advantage in the states.
Several Democrats are retiring in states such as Kansas, Tennessee and Oklahoma that Republicans view as natural pickups. And the GOP likes its chances in Midwestern states such as Michigan, Ohio and Iowa, where the weak economy has hurt the incumbent Democrats.
There are very few Democratic governors who are considered safe bets for re-election at this point. One big factor may be President Obama.
Obama's Drag
The incumbent president's party has lost an average of 5.5 governorships in midterm elections dating back to 1954, according to the Cook Political Report.
With 37 governorships up for grabs this year -- including 23 left open by term limits or retirement -- that likely translates into bad news for the Democrats.
"There are states where we didn't think we could play, say, two months ago, that now we think we can play in," says Tim Murtaugh, spokesman for the Republican Governors Association. "I don't think it has anything to do with Obama's personality as much as it has to do with his policies."
Off-Years Don't Insulate
A generation ago, most states moved their elections for governor away from the presidential year in hopes of insulating state offices from national concerns. But that move may have backfired.
With the president not on the ballot, many gubernatorial elections -- like congressional races -- become de facto referendums on how the public views the performance of the White House.
"It's impossible to avoid national concerns," says John J. Pitney Jr., a political scientist at Claremont McKenna College in California. "National tides can be just as important in midterms, and very often to the detriment of the party holding the White House."
In 2006, Democrats picked up six governorships -- giving them a majority of statehouses for the first time since 1994. They also gained about 600 state legislative seats, out of about 7,400 nationwide. Those wins were racked up despite the fact that the election year was dominated by national and international issues such as Iraq and congressional corruption that had little if anything to do with state governments.
"There's some kind of anti-presidential midterm reaction that operates in off-years for governors," says Larry J. Sabato, a University of Virginia government professor who wrote a classic book on governorships.
Republican Advantage
That certainly worked to the GOP's advantage in the two elections for governor held last November, when Republicans picked up both New Jersey and Virginia.
Both those states have gotten in the habit of registering what look like protest votes against the White House. New Jersey hasn't elected a governor from the president's party since 1985, while Virginia has voted against the president's party every time since 1977.
"I do believe that is a part of the psychology of those off-year gubernatorial elections," Sabato says. "It's almost as if they have to be given a very good reason to break the pattern."
Psychology aside, there's also the question of turnout. In a presidential year, turnout may exceed 60 percent. In a midterm, states are lucky to break 40 percent.
The turnout mix may be especially important this year. Obama motivated millions of first-time voters to come out in 2008, including many young and African-American voters. If the New Jersey and Virginia results are any indication, many will stay home this year.
Most analysts believe that Republican voters are more strongly motivated this time around. "Opposition can be a bigger motivator than support, and the opposition to Obama is pretty intense," Pitney says.
Other Factors Matter
Of course, the pattern doesn't always hold. In 1986, at the midpoint of Ronald Reagan's second term, Republicans lost control of the Senate but picked up seven governorships.
Elections for governor are prominent races in and of themselves -- not just a proxy vote on the presidency. The national mood is bound to have its effect, but other factors such as the advantages of incumbency, the state of the state economy, and the quality of the candidates are important as well.
That's why Arkansas' popular Democratic Gov. Mike Beebe, for instance, looks like a lock for re-election, even as his state has become one of the prime areas of concern for Democrats hoping to maintain control of House and Senate seats.
When people are voting for governor, they look for someone who can run the schools, build roads and attract businesses to their state, says Emily DeRose, communications director for the Democratic Governors Association.
"All of those responsibilities are very different than somebody serving in Congress," she says.
It's possible that Democratic losses in the mid-South and Midwest will be offset by gains in states such as California, Connecticut and Vermont, which have been strongholds for the party in recent years. So although Republicans appear certain to pick up some governorships this year, their total net gain may not be massive.
"Both parties are defending governorships in states where they have no business holding them," says Jennifer Duffy, who tracks governors races for the Cook Political Report.
Running On Their Own
And even in states where the national tide is clearly helping the GOP, gubernatorial candidates know that success or failure will turn on their own efforts -- not just Obama's approval ratings.
In Iowa, former GOP Gov. Terry Branstad holds double-digit leads in early polls against Democratic incumbent Gov. Chet Culver. But Branstad's campaign believes that has more to do with Iowa-specific concerns than anything happening in Washington.
Tim Albrecht, Branstad's campaign spokesman, says that "voters in Iowa are echoing a national mood," but to the extent that they're unhappy about the economy, unemployment and government budget problems, they blame "Gov. Culver and the legislative Democrats."
"In a state like Iowa," he says, "voters definitely differentiate their state politics from the federal politics."
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