Nearly 100% Chance of Major Earthquake in California within 30 Years

Monday, April 14, 2008

By Jenny O'Mara and KPBS Public Broadcasting

It's almost 100-percent certain that a quake like the one that rocked Northridge in 1994 will hit again within the next thirty years. That's the finding of a report by the U.S. Geological Survey, the California Geological Survey and others.

Doctor Michael Reichle is the Chief Seismologist with the California Geological Survey . He says a magnitude 6.7 quake could happen anywhere in California. He says there's a nearly fifty percent chance for an even larger quake-of magnitude 7.5.

Reichle: The larger quakes are really confined to the known faults, the San Andreas, the Hayward Fault in Northern California, the San Jacinto and Elsinore faults in Southern California.

Reichle says this is the first time scientists have reached a general consensus on the hazard levels on the faults in California. He says the news should serve as a wake up call to Californians-- to get their emergency plans together.

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