Poll Shows Darrell Issa With Double-Digit Lead Over Ammar Campa-Najjar

Speaker 1: 00:00 The 50th congressional district race between Democrat, uh, Mark Hampton ajar and Republican Darryl Eissa had been called neck and neck a up and anyone's guess, but new polling has raised questions about how tight a race. This is a poll out this week from the San Diego union Tribune and 10 news finds. Eissa opening up a double digit lead over camp in a jar. Joining me is KPBS reporter, Matt Hoffman, Matt. Welcome a Maureen. Tell us more about this UT 10 news poll, Speaker 2: 00:32 Right? Sort of a huge change in the district. After we saw a lot of these polls that were showing them neck and neck basically tied, um, this server USA pull 530 likely voters in the 50th congressional district. Some of those have already voted, but what we, what the survey found was that 51% of people were supporting Eissa and just 40% were supporting camp in a jar with 9% undecided. Now that's a big jump from some other polls where we saw like 46, 47, 42, 42. Um, so this one really opening it up, showing that, um, and especially among independents, they found, you know, camp at ajar just six weeks ago. Uh, he had a 13 point September lead when it comes to independence, uh, that in this poll turned into a 14 point deficit. So that's a 27 point swing to Eissa. Uh, basically this poll shows that independence are, are flocking dies so Speaker 1: 01:17 Well. Is there any speculation about why camp and ajar may have lost ground in this? Speaker 2: 01:23 You know, he did it a sort of controversial interview with a group called defenders County that were formed after, um, some protests and some looting writing, um, over there in Lamesa. Um, and he took some criticism from that for Democrats. A lot of people were not unhappy of the County chair. We heard him say that, you know, some of them are, his views are definitely not in line with our party. Um, but you know, two political scientists that I talked to, um, one from UC San Diego, one from San Diego state, they don't really seem to think that this has, um, that there's been any sort of one event that's had an impact on this race. Um, they just sort of say, look ice as a well-established candidate. You know, he served, you know, mainly in the 49th, almost 18 years, um, and that he's a conservative, you know, what you're going to get when you get Eissa. And they think that look, Hunter was a damaged candidate when he ran, especially under indictment. And, uh, they, they don't think that this poll is necessarily surprising. You know, maybe the lead isn't 11 points. Maybe it's more like five to eight, but not surprising. Speaker 1: 02:11 And that's Duncan Hunter jr. Who represented this particular district for many, many years. Now it could the fact that so many people have decided to vote before election day. Could that affect the outcome of this race? Speaker 2: 02:23 Yeah, because this is a presidential race with president Trump leading the ballot for Republicans, political science experts are expecting a lot of Republicans to flock out on election day. And they're expecting a lot of these mail-in ballots that are coming in California, uh, to go sort of democratic. So, uh, some of the political scientists are predicting on election night, sort of like the first returns. You may see a Mar with the lead and then maybe start to see that dwindled down. Um, but basically, you know, I talked to Benjamin Gonzalez. O'Brien, he's a political science professor with San Diego state and he says, look, if you're a Democrat for Remar, you're hoping that some of those Republicans just don't turn out. What you're hoping for is maybe that some Republicans and some of those who were breaking Speaker 3: 03:00 Towards Eissa, maybe they don't turn out on election day. Uh, maybe they changed their mind at the last minute. Speaker 1: 03:07 What else do the political experts you spoke to say about the race now? Speaker 2: 03:12 Well, Morgan, they basically say that the fact that there's a lot of money being thrown around in this race, we're seeing, you know, about 17, $18 million already spent inside the 50th district. Now, if you look at that sort of in proportion to the rest of the house races, that is about it's about number nine, according to open secrets, it's the ninth highest a house race that's being spent on. And if you're wondering, wondering, like which ones are ahead of that, it's like AOC is race, um, Nancy Pelosi, um, all, all the big races, Kevin McCarthy, the you think about, and then all of a sudden, there it is the 50th congressional race. Now a lot of that is because Darryl Leisa is self-funding his campaign, you know, he's raised about $12 million, 12 and a half million dollars. Um, but of that $8 million has either been loaned or donated by Eissa himself directly. Speaker 2: 03:52 And that goes to about five and a half million dollars that, uh, Mark camp ajar has been able to raise now, where are they spending that money down the stretch, a lot of TV ads, and both of them are going negative. You know, we see campaigns are trying to bring up, uh, ISIS past. We see ICA trying to bring up camp and the jars past. And so the political scientists think that if both these candidates are spending big money on ads down the stretch, then there must be some internal polling that shows, Hey, look, this race is actually a lot closer than we think Speaker 1: 04:15 What's been the reaction of the two campaigns to this news that Eissa has opened up a lead. Speaker 2: 04:21 Well, no, no surprise coming from the Eissa camp. You know, we heard the former congressmen saying, look, this is no surprise to me. You know, I've been running a campaign based on, you know, I'm a set conservative, they know what they're going to get and people are, are finally responding to that. Um, he, he notes that he had a tough challenge in the primary with some Republicans, but now the Republicans seem to be sort of coalescing behind Eissa and he's ready to represent them in Congress. Now Campanas are a much different tone, obviously being down 11 points in this poll, he's basically saying, you know, the only poll that matters is election day. Um, and he also points to another poll that was done earlier this month. It was by strategies three 60. Um, and it showed that I sat in campus or were neck and neck 42% and 42%. But that poll was done, uh, for the campus as our campaign. And it had a 5% margin of error. Speaker 1: 05:05 So then Matt, less than a week from the end of the election, what's the takeaway on this race? Speaker 2: 05:11 So Maureen part of that survey USA poll 88% of Republicans plan to or already have voted for Eissa. And it also showed that 92% of Democrats, same thing plan to or already have voted for camp in Azure. So that shows you right there, that Democrats and Republicans are sort of voting along party lines here. Now that's bad for campus are he needs some of those conservatives need some of those independence and that sort of undecided that 9% undecided here, that big chunk of independence, they could be the ones that make the difference in this race. I mean, we know that ice is a known commodity. Uh, we know camp in a jar, you know, is obviously Democrat, but those independents and some of those Republicans that are wondering where they're going to vote and turn out, could have a big deal to do with that. You know, if these Republicans don't turn out on election day, we could see as argued a win here. Speaker 1: 05:51 I've been speaking with KPBS reporter, Matt Hoffman and Matt. Thank you. Thanks Maureen.