San Diego County Moves Toward Dreaded 'Purple' Tier Of COVID-19 System

Speaker 1: 00:01 Coronavirus cases are still on the rise in San Diego County. And we're at risk of falling back down into the more restrictive purple tear next week that would require restaurants, places of worship, gyms, and movie theaters to stop all indoor operations and affect retail stores too. However, there are ways to avoid this fate, some things that County could do, and some things that we as residents could do, who to talk about where we are is San Diego union Tribune reporter pole system, Paul, thanks for joining us and welcome back. Thanks for having me. So now what exactly has happened to put us back on the brink of falling back into the purple tier? How much did the rate of COVID cases go up? Speaker 2: 00:39 Right. So we've, we've just seen the, uh, the number of cases that are following in this one week window that the state uses to calculate our local case rate every week, uh, increase and increase. And now, now it's gotten to the point where it's, it's over eight cases per a hundred thousand residents in a single week. And that, uh, that is enough that, uh, that it's just difficult to drive the numbers down under the, uh, the magical limit of seven cases per a hundred thousand. So Speaker 1: 01:10 How do you think we got into this position? W why are those numbers going up? Speaker 2: 01:14 Uh, you know, that, that came up in, uh, the county's press conference yesterday, uh, that they hold every week and they said, you know, people just aren't wearing their mask. They're having too many gatherings and at their homes, uh, they're, they're not keeping their social distance. They're just not doing the things that they used to be doing to keep this virus from spread. Speaker 1: 01:30 Okay. So the purple tier looms, here's what supervisor Nathan Fletcher has said about our situation yesterday. Speaker 3: 01:36 We'll have to wait until next week to see what our numbers are next week. Uh, but it would take a significant change in trajectory, uh, given everything that we've been witnessing over the course of the last month, uh, in order for us to avoid that, Speaker 1: 01:50 Paul, we don't necessarily have to fall into that purple tier, right? I mean, one thing that could change their trajectory is an increase in testing explained to us why an increase in testing could help keep San Diego in the red tier. Speaker 2: 02:02 That's right. So for one thing, uh, you know, we're looking back a week, they don't go by the most immediate numbers. They look back a week, uh, next Monday when they calculate the new rate. And so it's the number of cases that have fallen into this week ago, period. Uh, I ran the numbers yesterday and we're at 6.6, uh, cases per a hundred thousand as of yesterday. Uh, so we, you know, for the next three or four days, we will see more cases coming in, but not all of the new cases that come in will fall into that week. Go window. Uh, so, so for one thing, uh, the case rate just might not rise past, uh, you know, too far past seven cases. Um, and then the other thing is that the state has this system where they adjust downward your case rate based on the number of tests that you do in that we could go seven day window. So if we have more test results that come in that fall in that window, and it puts our overall average number of tests above, uh, the state median rate, then we can, we can see our, our overall rate reduced significantly up to 40%. So there's still a lot of hope, uh, to be had the, that even if we go over the, that magic threshold, that there is a possibility that the number can still be reduced. Speaker 1: 03:17 It's kind of ironic that more testing could help us bring our, our rate down, but that's the way it works. What about hospital rates, Paul? I mean, that's the main goal is to keep hospitals from becoming overwhelmed. What would it take to overwhelm them at this point? Speaker 2: 03:30 Right. So, uh, you know, at this point we really haven't come close to overwhelming hospitals. Uh, generally the number of COVID patients in hospital beds on any given day is about 6% of all people hospitalized on a given day. So we really, we haven't seen a massive impact on the hospital beds. It would take a really big surge to swamp our hospitals at this point. Um, but it's also important to remember and experts have hammered this home for me, time and time again, it's not just about hospital beds. You've got to have people to staff those hospital beds, and it gets really, uh, the most dicey in intensive care units where you need highly specialized, critical care nurses and doctors and respiratory therapists. And these people don't grow on trees. So, you know, you can easily burn them out. Uh, and, uh, you know, there's this entire, um, traveling nurse and doctor system where many will move to other States that have a higher need. And there's some indication that that's happening right now. So, uh, you know, even if we have beds that doesn't necessarily guarantee we're going to have, uh, the, the necessary professionals that we need to care for people who end up in a very serious situation in a hospital. Speaker 1: 04:41 You know, if you look at the map of the counties who are in different tiers, all the counties surrounding San Diego County to the North and East of us are already in that lower, uh, purple tier, which presumably doesn't help. Yeah, Speaker 2: 04:53 No, no. Especially if you have a lot of people who are traveling here and there, and maybe for work, maybe for family, uh, you know, there is a fair amount of mixing in Southern California. It's not as if these borders between counties are really vary from at all. Uh, you know, this is, uh, this is one mega region that has a lot of, um, social reasons why people, uh, go different places. So, so having rates that are higher in other areas bordering us, certainly does put pressure on our local rate, Speaker 1: 05:23 Of course, local businesses, dreads dropping back into the lower tier. Again, have we heard anything from them about what these latest numbers could mean? Speaker 2: 05:33 Yeah. I mean, we know that, uh, if we do fall to the purple tier, if we get the second purple score next week, that there would be a three-day period in which, uh, many different types of businesses would have to stop operating in doors. That would be restaurants, places of worship, uh, movie theaters, uh, businesses of few weeks back said, we are not going to go along with any, any such outdoor move. If it does happen, we're just, we're not gonna comply. Uh, the County said yesterday, very firmly that, you know, we are going to enforce, if we get complaints about businesses operating in doors, that shouldn't be, we're going to, you know, move forward with enforcement action. Um, so it really sets up quite a, quite an interesting tension. Uh, you know, just how far will local law enforcement be willing to go in enforcing these rules, uh, for restaurants and other places that are really just trying to survive? Speaker 1: 06:30 Well, it's not just the County, I guess it's us. That could make a difference too hard because the County did crack down on, on social gatherings, over Halloween, uh, with cease and desist orders. So what do these latest numbers say about, you know, any Thanksgiving plans ahead, for example, Speaker 2: 06:46 Right. I mean, I think it's a warning to all of us, that there are real consequences of not following some of the very simple things that people are being asked to do. I think it probably just means that we all need to be a little mindful, uh, that, that our individual actions just really have a cumulative effect in our area that could really hurt our favorite restaurant. For example, Speaker 1: 07:12 We've been speaking with San Diego union Tribune reporter pole system, Paul, thanks so much. Speaker 2: 07:17 Thanks for having me.