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Local Economist Predicts ‘Bleak’ 2007


University of San Diego Economist Alan Gin says San Diegans can expect a weaker economy next year. He says the slow housing market is to blame. KPBS Radio’s Andrew Phelps has details.

Gin predicts the regional economy will be “relatively bleak” in the first half of 2007. He predicts slower job growth and less consumer spending. But Gin does not anticipate a recession. He says the disappointing housing market will make the most impact on the economy.

Gin: …Including reduced employment in construction and real estate-related industries, less consumer buying power, because people’s home equity is not rising as fast, they’ve been declining. And then some people being hurt by being forced to file for bankruptcy, because they got in over their heads with their housing payments.

Gin says there is some good news for the housing market. Interest rates should slide down next year, which is good for homebuyers. And the supply of homes should shrink, which is good for home sellers. For KPBS, I’m Andrew Phelps.

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