You better have a restful, tame New Years Eve celebration this year. Just three days into 2008 and just as you are recovering from your revelries (assuming you dont heed this warning), youll be assaulted by the results of the first official step in the march toward the Presidential nomination. The Iowa Caucus , the First in the Nation test for presidential candidates since 1976 , will be held earlier than ever before. Both the Democrats and Republicans in the Buckeye State are going for January 3, 2008.
To retain that first distinction, Iowa party officials were forced to move the date ahead by several weeks. Maneuvering had begun in other states to be the first to have a presidential primary, or, at the very least, to have an early enough primary to influence the choice of nominee. New Hampshire was pushing hard to stay ahead of any other primary, even while South Carolina and Michigan were talking about January 15th. The chess game had begun, and Iowa responded with that oh-so-early caucus. Then theres Super Duper Tuesday , when California is joined by Florida, Illinois, Texas and 15 other states to create the February 5th primary to influence who will emerge as the front runners.
But back to Iowa where registered Republicans and Democrats convene in schools, public buildings, or private homes within their precincts to gather as neighbors and signal their preferences. Republicans actually place their votes in a hat. Democrats stand in preference groups for their candidates. So whats so exciting about this? Why should the rest of the nation care about such a quaint process? Well, Iowans have had a pretty good record of forecasting the eventual nominees during the last 30 years. In five out of nine races, Democrats correctly chose John Kerry, Al Gore, Bill Clinton (who ran unopposed), Walter Mondale and Jimmy Carter. Republicans had an easier time of it since George W. Bush, his father, and Ronald Reagan each ran unopposed one time. In addition, the GOP Iowans selected Bob Dole and Gerald Ford months before they won their parties nominations.
The Iowa Caucus results, of course, are released to the media even before the precinct results move on to the county and state conventions where delegates are selected to attend and vote in the national conventions. And its that first victory, ballyhooed by the press, that could become the new reality. If Clinton is bested by Obama or Edwards or if Dodd or Romney push Giuliani out of first place, could the current front runners be displaced and could a new contest form in the rush of primaries?
So, as you plan on how you will say goodbye to 2007 and greet 2008, do keep in mind that more could change in the early days of the new year than the numbers on your calendar, and youll want to be ready -- just in case.
Gloria Penner
November 15, 2007 at 07:43 PM
This arrived in my email this morning from a colleague at KPBS and, if accurate, would make the Iowa caucus even more interesting. Here it is:
"From Drudge Report:
Rasmussen will release new polling data on Iowaat 10 AM ET: Clinton's lead down to four points (from 11 in previous poll); Among voters who are certain to participate, it's a three-way: Clinton 26% Obama 26% Edwards 26%..."
Stay tuned.
Gloria
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Greg Duch
November 24, 2007 at 01:30 AM
The Campaign Outlook for 2008 and BEYOND
I think that Obama has an advantage which the others don't. If he doesn't make it in 2008, he will still be a viable candidate in 2012 or 2016.
Hillary will be quite a stale face in the crowd after 2008.
Biden, Dodd, and Kuccinich are getting long in the tooth to try in 2012.
Edwards will tire after making two attempts at national office; in 2004 and 2008.
On the Republican side, it's tough to imagine any of the present crop winning the Rep. nomination.
McCain is too old.
Giuliani is too New York LIBERAL.
Romney is too Mormon, so to speak.
Hucklebee is too unknown.
Thompson is too slow.
Tancredo is too anti-immigrant.
Hunter is too, too.
That leaves Vice-President Dick Cheney as the logical choice to succeed the Bush presidency. Unless, Bush pulls a Putin on the country. Well, then again, if Cheney were President, Bush could still be Cheney's "right-hand" man.
The USA is the land of the unending presidential campaign. Campaigning is a national pastime for pundits, gurus, and other assorted sages. How do parliamentary countries hold campaigns of six weeks and then choose an entire new government?--as in the U.K., Israel, and most other democracies.
