You better have a restful, tame New Years Eve celebration this year. Just three days into 2008 and just as you are recovering from your revelries (assuming you dont heed this warning), youll be assaulted by the results of the first official step in the march toward the Presidential nomination.
The Iowa Caucus , the First in the Nation test for presidential candidates
since 1976 , will be held earlier than ever before. Both the Democrats and Republicans in the Buckeye State are going for January 3, 2008.
To retain that first distinction, Iowa party officials were forced to move the date ahead by several weeks. Maneuvering had begun in other states to be the first to have a presidential primary, or, at the very least, to have an early enough primary to influence the choice of nominee. New Hampshire was pushing hard to stay ahead of any other primary, even while South Carolina and Michigan were talking about January 15th. The chess game had begun, and Iowa responded with that oh-so-early caucus. Then theres Super Duper Tuesday , when California is joined by Florida, Illinois, Texas and 15 other states to create the February 5th primary to influence who will emerge as the front runners.
But back to Iowa where registered Republicans and Democrats convene in schools, public buildings, or private homes within their precincts to gather as neighbors and signal their preferences. Republicans actually place their votes in a hat. Democrats stand in preference groups for their candidates. So whats so exciting about this? Why should the rest of the nation care about such a quaint process? Well, Iowans have had a pretty good record of forecasting the eventual nominees during the last 30 years. In five out of nine races, Democrats correctly chose John Kerry, Al Gore, Bill Clinton (who ran unopposed), Walter Mondale and Jimmy Carter. Republicans had an easier time of it since George W. Bush, his father, and Ronald Reagan each ran unopposed one time. In addition, the GOP Iowans selected Bob Dole and Gerald Ford months before they won their parties nominations.
The Iowa Caucus results, of course, are released to the media even before the precinct results move on to the county and state conventions where delegates are selected to attend and vote in the national conventions. And its that first victory, ballyhooed by the press, that could become the new reality. If Clinton is bested by Obama or Edwards or if Dodd or Romney push Giuliani out of first place, could the current front runners be displaced and could a new contest form in the rush of primaries?
So, as you plan on how you will say goodbye to 2007 and greet 2008, do keep in mind that more could change in the early days of the new year than the numbers on your calendar, and youll want to be ready -- just in case.
