Activists pushing for a speedy repeal of the 17-year-old old federal law banning openly gay Americans in the military have had much to celebrate in recent weeks.
Endorsements for repealing the ban have rolled in this year from military leaders ranging from Secretary of Defense Robert Gates and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Adm. Mike Mullen, to former Vice President Dick Cheney.
Independent Sen. Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut says he plans to introduce the Senate's first bill calling for repeal; a House repeal bill has 187 co-sponsors.
And Tuesday a California-based research group released a study that found more than two dozen foreign militaries have had almost uniform success in quickly integrating gays and lesbians into their ranks — without damage to morale or readiness, and without establishing separate facilities.
But the very real roadblocks still facing those who advocate an end to the Clinton-era "don't ask, don't tell" law have also been on display.
Army Chief of Staff Gen. George Casey told the Senate Armed Services Committee on Tuesday that he has "serious concerns" about rolling back the ban while the nation is waging two wars.
It's a view strongly shared by Marine Commandant Gen. James Conway and by Mullen's predecessor, Gen. Peter Pace, who once called homosexuality "immoral."
Pace currently serves on the defense secretary's influential Defense Policy Board and is viewed by activists as playing a key role in opposing a repeal.
Conversation Shift, Policy Lag
"There certainly has been a seismic shift in the conversation" about gays in the military, says Aaron Belkin of the University of California, Santa Barbara.
Belkin heads the university's Palm Center, which prepared the report on foreign militaries and their integration of gay servicemen and women.
"But the question remains whether the new rhetoric will be accompanied by political change," says Belkin, even with President Obama pledging to pursue repeal and ordering military leaders to find a way to implement an end to the ban.
But Will A Repeal Pass This Year?
Belkin counts himself among skeptics who believe that, despite the public's support for repeal and the recent spate of high-profile repeal endorsers, a measure rolling back the law is unlikely to pass through Congress this year — not even as part of the defense authorization bill, where it would have the best chance of passage.
"All the chiefs have to do is muddy the waters a little bit," Belkin says. "All they have to say it that it can't be done now because we're at war on two fronts."
And that's exactly what Casey said Tuesday.
"I do have serious concerns about the impact of the law on a force that is fully engaged in two wars and has been at war for eight and a half years," he said. "We just don't know the impacts on readiness and military effectiveness."
He also cautioned Congress and the president against imposing a moratorium on enforcement of "don't ask, don't tell" while the Pentagon reviews the president's proposal to end the ban.
But Kevin Nix at Servicemembers Legal Defense Network, which helps military members affected by "don't ask don't tell," cited the Palm study finding, saying that "lifting bans in other countries was a non-event."
"There is empirical evidence of other countries showing that this would not be a complicated, protracted process," he said.
Nix also said he hailed Lieberman's decision to introduce a bill to repeal the ban. He characterized the senator as someone with "a strong relationship with the Defense Department, a commitment to national security and a record of opposing discrimination."
But despite high-profile support and Lieberman's dive into the issue, repeal is no done deal this year. And Congress, in a midterm election year and with pressure from some military quarters, may very well delay any action until the Pentagon reports its findings toward the end of the year.
"Frankly," says Belkin, the skeptic, "I don't see movement this year."
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