S1: It's time for Midday Edition on KPBS. In his flurry of executive orders , President Donald Trump also pardoned hundreds of January 6th insurrectionists. We'll talk about the San Diego connection. I'm Jade Hyndman with conversations that keep you informed , inspired and engaged. With the implications of pardoning January 6th rioters.
S2: It reinvigorates these groups , these individual groups. It sends a message to the extremist far right in this country.
S1: Plus , where the U.S. stands on the threat of civil war. That's ahead on midday Edition. So January 6th , 2021 is a day Americans will always remember. Insurrectionists supporting Donald Trump attack the Capitol in an effort to overthrow the election. They assaulted police officers , smashed windows , vandalized offices and waved the Confederate flag in the Capitol rotunda. Something never seen even during the Civil War. One police officer died as a result , along with four Trump supporters. Among them was one woman from San Diego. Well , last week , Donald Trump pardoned around 1500 January 6th insurrectionists. More than 200 have been released from prison. USA today's Will Carlos , who covers extremism , recently had an exclusive interview with Henry Enrique Tarrio , who is the de facto Proud Boys leader. Will joins me now to talk about the implications of these pardons. And the San Diego connection will welcome to the show.
S2: Thanks for having me on.
S1: It's always great to have you on. So let's start broad here. Break down the magnitude of Trump's pardons for January 6th insurrectionists.
S2: Well , as far as the world that I cover , it's huge. I mean , it's hard to imagine anything that that would have a bigger impact. I mean , other than maybe promoting these guys and giving them government jobs or something , which who knows ? I mean , that might be next , but but certainly pardoning them is a huge deal. We we were ready and prepared for it. I mean , I was writing stories , even leading up to it with the more sort of Trump talked about these pardons on the campaign trail. I mean , it's just a very big deal. It reinvigorates these groups , these individual groups. It sends a message to the extremist far right in this country. And , you know , and it gets key individuals like back on the streets and back organizing and back doing what they were doing prior to being put in prison. So yeah , it's huge. Wow.
S1: Wow. And can you put into perspective the range of crimes committed here ? Yes.
S2: So we're talking about everything from a very simple misdemeanor charge for trespassing. Um , you know , I wrote a few stories identifying people who had gone into the capital. Um , a lot of people were identified by facial recognition and things like that. So there are people who literally were just charged with , um , with trespassing on government property. And then at the other end of the scale , you have Enrique Tarrio , Henry Enrique Tarrio , who was charged with seditious conspiracy , a very serious crime , um , and was ultimately found guilty and was sentenced to 22 years. He was one of several people charged with statistics conspiracy , including the head of the Oath Keepers , Stewart Rhodes , who was also sentenced to 18 years. So those guys have kind of become the , I guess , the poster boys for the insurrection there. They got the most serious sentences. They were charged with the most serious crimes. And yeah , Tarrio was sort of right at the top of the pile , I guess.
S1: Well , and as I mentioned earlier , you interviewed Terrio. Um , what what did he tell you ? Yeah.
S2: I mean , I've been talking with. I'm going to call him Enrique. I've been talking with Enrique for for years. I mean , I talked to him a lot in the run up to the insurrection. I was actually randomly on the phone with him when he was arrested on January 4th in DC. Um. And what did he tell me ? I mean , it was a wide ranging interview. We spent more than an hour talking to each other. Basically , I asked him about what his feelings are towards January 6th. So if we start there , he acknowledges that it was a pretty awful day and that a lot of things happened that shouldn't have happened. It's not like he's sitting here attempting to whitewash it as some people on the right have done in this country. He acknowledges that , you know , that police officers were attacked , and he thinks that that the people who attacked police officers did deserve to be charged. But he says as far as his case is concerned , you know , he wasn't there on January 6th. He was basically charged with fomenting and organizing an insurrection and not with any sort of physical crimes on the day. And that's what he thinks is outrageous. He says , look , that's where this became political. And I was charged with something that I should never have been. And in his telling of it , in his world , the treatment of him and his fellow Proud Boys , again , some of whom didn't really do very much on the day , um , is indicative of a broader like political conspiracy that kind of taints all the other prosecutions. So he's very much in favor of what Trump has done in terms of these pardons. Um , but he's in this weird catch 22 where he also acknowledges that a lot of stuff happened on January 6th that shouldn't have done in a decent democracy. So , yeah , that was that was some of the stuff he talked about. He talked a little bit about the future of the Proud Boys and the future of his role with the organization. And yeah , we can delve into any elements of that.
S1: Well , as you've explained , you know , you've explained what he thinks happened in his world. This is his telling of the event on January 6th.
S2: Like , that's very clear. He wasn't there , but he watched it on TV. And he's not brainwashed , you know ? I mean , there is a certain portion of this country that have been brainwashed to believe that nothing bad happened on January 6th , that this was all made up by the media or made up by the Democrats , and that no one should ever have been charged with any crimes. And as somebody who was there , I was there. I watched , it happened , I watched , I watched windows being broken. I watched police officers being assaulted. I watched people getting hurt. And , you know , it happened. There's no there's no doubt about that. Um , but I would say his sort of , you know , his version of , of , of the events of the day is , is fairly accurate. His version of the prosecution is very different to , uh , to what prosecutors and to what , you know , a lot of people in the legal system , you know , think is fair. Um , you know , he was he was tried by a jury of his peers. He was found guilty. He was charged with crimes. He was found guilty of those crimes through the judicial system. Um , and he's now been pardoned by that same judicial system. But he thinks that the whole thing was a big conspiracy and that he should never have been charged in the first place. So that's where his kind of version of reality goes. Goes awry , I guess is when it comes to to to the prosecutions after the fact as opposed to what happened on the day.
S1: You also mentioned Stewart Rhodes , a founder of the right wing militia group the Oath Keepers. He was released from prison last week , too.
S2: Yeah , I mean , very interesting case. I mean , I think I think it's fair to say that when it comes to seditious conspiracy and I've spent a lot of time , you know , looking at these cases and covering them and writing about them. And I do think it's fair to say that when you look at the sort of mechanics of seditious conspiracy , the case against Stewart Rhodes is arguably a lot stronger than the case against Enrique Tarrio. So whereas what Tarrio did was to sort of like create chat groups and things like that and kind of encourage people to go and then gloat about the insurrection and say things like , we did this , which clearly resonated with a jury and led to him having this very strong sentence. You know , Stewart Rhodes was there on January 6th. He didn't go into the building , but he certainly seems to have been playing a kind of observational and sort of supervisory role of the people who did go into the into the capital , which is what he was charged with. He also did things like , you know , organized for a stash of weapons to be kept in a motel room across the Potomac. I think that unlike Tarrio , who kind of got caught up in all of this and caught up in the excitement of it and drove it forwards. As far as Stewart Rhodes was concerned , this was a legitimate revolution. I mean , that's how he saw it. This was an attempt to overthrow the democratic process of the country. And so I my personal take , looking at those two cases , I think , I think the case against Stewart Rhodes is kind of a lot more complex and interesting than the case against Tarrio. And it's and it's. It's kind of confused. It's always sort of confused me that that Stewart Rhodes got 18 years and Tarrio got 22 years , but I guess that's for juries and judges to decide.
S1:
S2: You know , when big scary things like January 6th happen , then need to be people who get in trouble and there need to be people who go to prison. And Tarrio was particularly was sort of emblematic of January 6th. He was there bragging about it and telling everyone to go and unapologetically kind of saying all of this stuff. And he's the leader of this kind of scary and edgy group called the Proud Boys. And so I understand why he was prosecuted , and I understand why judges gave him a strong , you know , a very heavy sentence. Um , but it's just when you look at the kind of nitty gritty of what these people were doing , you know , Stuart Rhodes has got a stash of weapons , and Tarrio is not even in D.C. that day. So it is it's it's kind of it's kind of difficult. But I think to answer your question , I think it comes down to needing to have people go to prison , needing there to be to be consequences for these actions and prosecutors acknowledging that and really kind of hammering Tarrio with those charges. And then the judge , you know , really hammering him with his sentence , which , of course , now is all moot because he's out and free. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
S1: Yeah. Let's get back to to Stuart. Because Rhodes ex-wife , Tasha Adams , has been outspoken about her fears around him being released. And you interviewed her as well.
S2: It's a really tragic story. And I'd urge , you know , listeners to go and check out my , stories on Tasha Rhodes. Um , sorry. Tasha Adams , Ney Rhodes. Uh , she and her family are up in , uh , Eureka , Montana , which is where they've lived for a long time. It's where they lived or near to where they live. When ? When she was married to Stuart. She , uh , divorced him shortly before the Capitol insurrection and had this kind of harrowing , as she tells it , a sort of harrowing escape from him. And she's basically lived in fear for the last couple of years , and she's now terrified. I've been texting with her , and she's extremely scared for her livelihood , for her safety. Now that Stewart Rhodes is out. And this is because by her telling , he was a man who was extremely abusive towards her , you know , she filed restraining orders against him. She filed all sorts of documents alleging all sorts of horrible things that he did , and she told me all sorts of horrible things that he did. And I put him in my story , but now he's out. And so she's really worried , particularly because she was involved in somewhat in the prosecution of him , particularly in getting him to sort of stay in prison. She's worried that he wants retribution and he's going to come after her. I will stress. I mean , he , through his lawyers , has said this is not in any way something I want to do. And stress that he had , you know , a couple of years when he was separated from her before he went to prison , where he didn't seek any retribution against her. So just to sort of play devil's advocate , that's his take. But but certainly she and her five children are living in fear right now. They're really concerned.
S1:
S2: Certainly , there is a pretty strong thread of far right extremism in In Your County.
S1: KPBS Midday Edition is back after the break. Welcome back to KPBS Midday Edition. I'm Jade Hindman. Among Donald Trump's wave of executive orders were the pardons of around 1500 January 6th insurrectionists. Joining me now to discuss this is Will Carlos. He covers extremism for USA today. So will a dozen of those pardoned had ties to San Diego.
S2: I was actually I don't know if you guys know this story. I was sitting I sat next to Ashli Babbitt , the lady who was killed in the riot. I sat next to her on the plane. I was in San Diego reporting , and I flew from San Diego to Baltimore. And I sat next to her on the plane. And I can tell you that entire plane was full of red hats and people shouting , stop the steal ! And I'm sure most of those sort of several hundred people who are on the plane ended up at the at the insurrection. So I would say that the people who were arrested are probably just a small sliver of the people that were actually there who had San Diego connections and Southern California connections beyond that. So , yeah , I think that even though this is , um , even though San Diego is largely , I believe , a Democratic city at this point in a Democratic county , um , certainly there is a pretty strong , um , a pretty strong thread of , of , of far right extremism in , in your county. Mm.
S3: Mm.
S1:
S3:
S2: Just the case everywhere. I mean , it's just I think wherever you have , wherever you have Americans right now , anywhere in America , there is going to be , um , part of this sort of , you know , part of the MAGA movement and part of the extremist MAGA movement. Like , it's not an interesting part of my , my beat and kind of covering this stuff. And people always say to me , you know , you , you cover extremism. But a lot of what was considered extremism four years ago is now mainstream politics. You know , like , it really , genuinely is. A lot of the things that , um , that I was covering as sort of these fringe beliefs that people didn't really understand or think about. Now you have cabinet ministers taking office who believe in things like QAnon and believe in things like the , you know , that the election was stolen and this other nonsense. So , yeah , I think that it's just any there isn't a community in America that isn't touched by by this movement , that doesn't have people who believe these things.
S1: Well , another person I wanted to talk about was Oliver Cravat. He was involved in the January 6th riots. He has plenty of San Diego connections. For one , he led San Diego State University's College Republicans while enrolled here.
S2: Uh , his father , Tony Kovacic , when I was coming up as a reporter in San Diego , was sort of the Republican kingmaker. I mean , this was the guy who I think he was the chairman of the local GOP. Nothing got done in Republican circles in in San Diego without , uh , without Tony Kovacic. So now his son , as you say , was the leader of the Young Republicans at San Diego State , was sort of very outspoken , was interviewed on Tucker Carlson , ended up working for the Trump administration in a very minor role , but he was distinctive. I wrote a story about him last year , last or actually it was December 2023 , identifying him. I was contacted by some sources who said , look , we've got this guy on camera going into the Capitol briefly. And so I wrote a story about it and identified him by name. Now , um , he was never arrested. Um , and I should say there are he's among literally hundreds of people who online researchers claim to have identified going into the building who were never who were never charged for whatever reason , like the feds never caught up with them and they were never charged. So he was never charged. Um , he didn't deny or he did sort of. He did kind of sort of deny going into the Capitol. But I think the evidence in my story speaks for itself. Like it's pretty clear that he went into the Capitol and , um , and , and , you know , that he was part of that whole MAGA sort of movement. And I've taught extents and purposes I believe remains part of that movement and is sort of still trying to make his way as a , as a kind of young Republican and who knows , possibly has opportunities now going forwards.
S1: You know , you've spent so much time covering this and those who were involved in in January 6th. What's their ideology ? Proud boys , Oath Keepers.
S2: There were thousands of people there. Like I say , I was there , I was observing it. And I think you have everything from dyed in the dyed in the wool extremists , you know , white supremacists , um , real sort of nasty characters. And then I think you have , right the way down to people who just kind of got caught up in the moment and were excited and were motivated by mob mentality. I certainly saw a lot of people that day. Kind of getting whipped up into a frenzy by by what was going on. But unquestionably , I think what unites these people is a devotion to President Trump. There's no doubt about that. These are , generally speaking , people who believe that Trump is or was always president. Most of them , I think it's fair to say , believe that there was a problem with the 2020 election and that he didn't actually lose , which of course he did. We know that. It's you know , it's a fact. It's been , uh , it's been checked and verified and investigated. And , you know , let's be clear , Trump lost the election. But as far as these people are concerned , he didn't. And I think genuinely , they see themselves as like American patriots , especially now , especially with these with these pardons , I think they see themselves as being utterly , um , justified in what they did and not only justified , but like noble and and really having done something noble and right for the country. And so as again , as someone who stood and watched these crimes happen in the name of a lie and a conspiracy , it's very odd to be sitting here four years later and be talking about these people feeling justified and feeling right and feeling as if they did something in any way noble and heroic , as opposed to criminal and awful , which is what actually happened.
S1:
S2: I think we're going to see what I always describe as brands like , I always think of the Proud Boys as a brand , essentially more than an organization or a group , and I think it's going to be a brand that is going to be ascendant in the coming years. I think it's got new life , it's got new energy , and I think more people are going to be going to meetings and signing up to the Proud Boys. But I think that the biggest impact of these pardons is the sort of psychological impact it is. It is sending a message to people that you can commit crimes right up to going into our nation's most sacred spaces , and you can beat up and fire pepper spray out and hit with Billy clubs and hit with with pipes and seriously hurt police officers. And as long as you've done it in the name of a certain person who is now president , that's okay. And I think that that's what the message that is being sent out. And I think that that's what America needs to be thinking about , is , is what message that sends to people who would do harm to our democracy and who mean harm to our democracy , because there's an awful lot of them out there , and an awful lot of them are supporters of President Trump , and an awful lot of them will have gotten the message. Now that what , you know , whatever they do is acceptable and is pardonable. I mean , that's what these pardons that's the message that these pardons send.
S1: Very insightful. I've been speaking with Will Carlos. He covers extremism for USA today. Well , thank you so much.
S2: I always like coming on. Thanks for having me.
S1: Coming up , the message being sent to extremists and what that might mean for political violence in the U.S. and abroad.
S4: It sends the message to them that Trump is one of them , and that that sort of behavior is now acceptable. That Trump , you know , approves of it.
S1: KPBS Midday Edition is back after the break. Welcome back to KPBS midday Edition. I'm Jade Hindman. We've already seen a wave of dangerous rhetoric in the weeks since Donald Trump pardoned around 1500 January 6th insurrectionists. Extremism experts are sounding the alarm about the message his move sends and how it could promote political violence. One UC San Diego political scientist has been warning about the state of our democracy for quite some time now. Her name is Barbara F Walter. She's the author of How Civil Wars Start. And professor of international affairs at UC San Diego. Professor Walter , welcome back to Midday Edition.
S4: It's my pleasure to be here.
S1: Well , I'm so glad you're here with us. So , I mean , we've had many conversations about your research and your book , How Civil Wars Start , which really lays out factors that cause civil wars.
S4: And let me give your listeners a bit of a background. Um , you know , there's been an enormous amount of research on the risk factors that that lead a country towards political violence and political instability. Stability , and much of this research has been used by our own government. The US government has a task force. It's been in existence since 1994 called the Political Instability and Violence. The Political Instability Task Force. And one of their jobs has been to come up with a predictive model to help our government predict what countries around the world we're likely to experience political violence and instability within the next two years. And I served on that task force from 2017 to 2021. And it turns out that the the two best predictors of whether a country was likely to experience political violence was whether its democracy was declining rapidly and reaching what we call the middle zone. Sort of it has some elements of democracy , but some elements of autocracy and whether its citizens had organized their political parties based mostly around race , religion and ethnicity rather than around ideology. So instead of joining a political party because you were conservative or liberal , you joined a political party because you were white or black or Jewish and Muslim or Christian , Serb or Croat. Um , countries that had these two factors , the task force considered at high risk of political instability and violence. And we sent that list to the white House. So that's sort of background to your question , which is how are we doing today ? Well , by the US government's own , uh , measure of democracy , um , our democracy had declined rapidly between 2016 and the end of December of , of 2020 , um , to the point where , um , by the end of 2020 , the US was officially considered in this middle zone. January 6th , I think , really revealed the depth to which the United States had , um , sort of declined in on a whole series of things , but but in particular in , in the strength of our democracy , trust in our democracy and these deep , deep , um , racial , um , and in some respects , religious divides.
S1:
S4: Um , uh , clearly in early 2021 , um , we'd had a peaceful transfer of power. Trump did , uh , leave the white House. The Biden administration came in , and the Biden administration clearly honored both , uh , democracy and the rule of law , um , for its terms. So , so sort of the the slide , um , the backsliding that we saw with the strength of America's democratic institutions stopped. But in some ways , we're in actually a very worrisome position because , um , our political art democratic institutions are as weak today as they were back in December of , of 2020. Um , the Biden administration was not able to institute any democratic reforms. Um , anybody who studies democracies knows that America has a series of really , really undemocratic features that no other healthy , strong democracy has. So institutionally , we are really , really vulnerable to additional backsliding. And it really has come down to depend very , very heavily on who's in the white House. Do we have somebody who really believes in democracy and is going to support democracy ? Donald Trump has made clear that he's going to wield presidential power very , very heavily. And he's done that from , um , you know , the very first day in office. Republicans in Congress seem to be falling in line , as they did in his first term. And now we're going to see what's going to happen in the courts. So we're starting to see lawsuits. But you do not want to be in a position where you're kind of holding your breath , hoping that , um , the guardrails that remain will , will hold , um , because then it's it's tenuous. Mhm.
S1: Yeah , I want to I do want to bring it back to Trump's recent pardons for January 6th. Insurrectionist. What kind of message do you feel that since.
S4: Oh my gosh. Um , so it I mean , it sends I think actually , you know , a number of really , really clear signals to , to different audiences. I think the first signal he's sending is to people who might have those tendencies. So people who , you know , you know , aren't , you know , entirely enthralled with democracy , kind of are are intrigued or seduced with autocracy. Those who have white nationalists tendencies , um , those people who kind of like the thrill of violence and bullying. It sends the message to them that that Trump is one of them , and that that sort of behavior is now acceptable. And in fact , um , you know , is maybe not encouraged , but , um , but the Trump , you know , approves of it. I think another message that he sends to people who would , would actually take action and engage in , in violence or , you know , throw up the Nazi salute in public is that he's going to protect people who protect him. And so what he's saying is that anything that they do to support him , even if it's illegal , will be rewarded. And you know that they're free to pursue their agendas , that there will be no repercussions , that the rule of law does not apply to them as long as he is president. So that's a dangerous signal. And , you know , rather than deterring additional bad behavior , it actually is going to encourage it. What's going to happen now is , is the leaders of these organizations have all been released from prison. The people who are involved in January 6th , who engaged in , in , in violence have all been pardoned. And it's just going to embolden both the leaders and the supporters to build their organizations back up. And their organizations had very , you know , clear goals. You know , the vast majority of them were white supremacist groups. Um , a large portion of them were also anti federal government groups. And , you know , one of their their the goals of many of these groups was to ensure that that America remained a white Christian nation or at least ruled by , by white Christians. Um , even if that doesn't include democracy. And in fact , we know America cannot be a white ruled by white Christians and be a democracy , because demographically , um , we're shifting so dramatically. So. And we haven't even talked about if you were one of the , the officers who was who was attacked , if you were actually there at the Capitol and you were seeing this happening , um , and you were on a list of , of of individuals that , um , you know , they wanted to target with , with violence , how you would feel at this point , knowing that they know who you are and they've now been released ? Mhm.
S3:
S1: How do white supremacist and anti federal government groups like the ones. Many of the January 6th insurrectionists were part of.
S4: If Harris had won , there would have been this whole subset of the American population. Um , again , most of which is white , um , who who truly , truly disagrees with the direction , um , the United States had been taking. Who felt like they were losing their country. Who felt that they should still be in control , that their country was being stolen from them ? I mean , you've heard about the great replacement theory that the Democrats are encouraging non-white immigration so that they just overwhelm demographically the white population and take over the country that way. So had Harris won , you would have had a very , very disaffected group of of people who would have now thought that the election had been stolen twice from them. And there's actually research in political science that says that when you get significant post-election violence , um , it's almost always initiated by the loser , and it's almost always initiated after they've lost a second consecutive election that they believe was was fraudulent. But they won. You know , they now have the keys to the Cadillac. Um , and I think in their minds , you know , they can now their , their world is protected. And so they have fewer reasons to rise up. The system is is serving them and is likely to serve them over the next four four years. What I worry about is the long term , because if you have a party , um , that remains overwhelmingly white , that is really , you know , the Republican Party is it is about 80% white and a country that is multi-ethnic , multi-religious and multiracial and increasingly so if you have a party that remains overwhelmingly white , um , and the only way to stay that way is , is to sort of engage in dirty tricks to , to lock out , um , the rest of the country , to sort of cement in what ultimately would be minority rule. Then the majority who are not benefiting from that system. Um , and we see this historically will eventually organize , mobilize , and they will eventually take action. Large groups that are excluded from from government , um , generally aren't passive , um , um over time. So so there's this short term long term trade off. And , you know , if Trump really starts going after certain segments of the American population , uh , they're going to start organizing.
S1: You know , history definitely has a way of repeating itself.
S4: This is such a long history in , in America. Um , you know , where we , we kind of , you know , move towards greater equality. And then this threatens the dominant group. And and they , you know , they seek retribution and we move backwards. So we , you know , America does the right thing. And in 1860 , by , by demanding an end to slavery , we do the right thing. Um , immediately after the Civil War where we , we give freed African Americans , um , all , you know , all the political rights. Um , and you see , suddenly this really rapid , uh , growth in African Americans in , in , in the political system , you know , and , and you have this sense of hope and , uh , like , we're finally going to be the country we've always hoped to be. And then you see , those who had benefited from the old system , um , start to organize and , and , and start to wield the power , the economic and the political power and often the , the law enforcement power that they still have to , to repress that , um , that growth and to , quote unquote , put people back in their place and , and are often often successful. And , and this is , of course , you know , Martin Luther King's famous , famous line , um , you know , the arc of history is long , but it , it , it , um , tends towards justice. Um , you know , we've we have made progress. The civil rights movement finally enfranchised African Americans again and again. It took almost a hundred years. Um , but it enfranchised African Americans. And then you saw , you know , the , the , the first African American president with , with Barack Obama and and then you could see the backlash building , like how , you know , from those , again , who saw this as a sign that the America that was theirs was being taken away. And , and , you know , the , the I that having an African American president just enraged them. And that's when you start to see the growth of far right militias. That's when you started to see , um , you know , the Republican Party at the state level start to suppress , um , the votes , especially of , of minorities. Um , that's when you started to see the , uh , you know , appointments in , in the , in , in , at the state level. Um , and then , you know , later at the Supreme Court level of , of people who were willing to , you know , remove a lot of the , the checks on , on voter suppression and , and say , you know , this isn't a problem anymore will allow states to decide , um , you know , how to run run their elections , even if what we're seeing is again , the disenfranchisement of of minority groups. And so we're in a period where we're experiencing that backlash. And and again , all I can say is , you know , it's unbelievably frustrating. And and boy , you hope that America was better than that. But I also believe that , you know , there will be progress after this , that we will that America might have to well , we will have to experience all the pain and the negative effects of , of turning on each other to some degree. Um , but that , that evidence , I think it's and it's going to be clear evidence that this is not the world we want to live in. Will will hopefully bring Americans back together.
S1: Well , also , you know , it seems what's happening in the U.S. right now is also happening in several other countries around the globe with far right movements now in control. What is going on ? Yeah.
S4: So why is this happening now ? And I there are two I think there are two big reasons , um , that are actually quite different , but they just happen to be occurring at the same time. And that's very unfortunate. Um , the first is , um , fairly rapid demographic change. The US is the first democracy , the first big democracy to go from a majority white population to a minority white population. Um , and that's going to happen around the year 2045. Um , and , and that's going to happen no matter what immigration policy we we institute. And again , if you look historically at , at political violence , the groups that tend to , um , push back , um , and that believe that violence is justified to prevent change. Are not the poorest groups or the immigrant groups ? It's the groups that had once been dominant and are in decline. Um , they begin to pursue violence kind of as as an act of desperation. And because they've had power , they tend to get away with it. So , um , the United States is the first country that's going through this. And and that's why we're seeing it here earlier than we're seeing in other countries. But as you mentioned , we are seeing the rise of far right parties in Canada , in Germany , in Sweden , in Italy , in France. And and so this is not unique. The next country that's going to go through this demographic change is Canada. After that , it's likely to be Australia , New Zealand , followed by , um , the countries of Europe. Um , and this demographic change could easily , easily be accelerated by climate change. Because if climate change actually makes parts of the Global South uninhabitable because it gets too hot and too dry , then those individuals are going to migrate north and they're likely to migrate to the wealthier democracies of of the world. Um , so it's happening in part because , um , groups that had once held power in these wealthy democracies , um , are losing that power. And they're they're fighting back and they're fighting back with national , heavily nationalistic parties and anti-immigrant parties. The second reason I think this , and I call it the accelerant and had had this not been the case , I'm not sure this demographic change would have had the same effect. The second reason is the rise of social media , um , and especially social media , whose algorithms are unregulated. And we know now know that those algorithms , um , are pushing out the most incendiary , the most extreme , the most emotionally laden information , um , because that's the information that keeps individuals engaged the longest on their phones. So their business model is designed to keep people , you know , reading , reading , reading and watching , watching , watching on their videos. But but what they're watching is stuff that's going to divide countries. It's going to make people angry. That's going to make them think that the world is is going to hell. Um , and the five biggest tech companies of the world are all American companies , and we essentially have refused to , um , regulate them. And so they're getting a free pass. Um , and , and , and we are suffering the repercussions of a whole series of really , really negative societal effects.
S1: Very insightful conversation. I've been speaking with Barbara F Walter. She's the author of How Civil War Start and professor of international affairs at UC San Diego. Professor , thank you so much for joining us. As always.
S4: It's my pleasure. And hello , San Diego.
S1: That's our show for today. I'm your host , Jade Hindman. Thanks for tuning in to Midday Edition. Be sure to have a great day on purpose , everyone.