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DeMaio Leads, Filner Second In Latest Mayoral Race Poll

Above: Poll results for the race for San Diego Mayor spanning the last 8 months of the campaign.

If a primary election was held on Thursday, three of the mayoral candidates could advance to a general election in November and Proposition B on pension reform would pass, according to the latest 10News/SurveyUSA poll results.

Aired 6/1/12 on KPBS News.

If a primary election for San Diego Mayor was held on Thursday, three of the candidates would have the potential to advance to a general election in November, according to the latest 10News Poll results.

Poll results for Proposition B on Thursday, May 31.
Enlarge this image

Above: Poll results for Proposition B on Thursday, May 31.

Of 542 actual and likely voters polled on Thursday, City Council Member Carl DeMaio would get 31 percent of the vote, Congressman Bob Filner would receive 28 percent and State Assemblyman Nathan Fletcher would get 23 percent.

Mesa College political science professor Carl Luna said both DeMaio and Filner have been hitting Fletcher hard recently.

"Carl DeMaio doesn’t want to have to face him in a runoff in November," Luna said. "Bob Filner doesn’t want to edge him out for second place, so both are dumping a ton of money to make Fletcher look bad."

If no candidate wins a majority of the vote, the top two will move on to the November election.

Compared to an identical poll that was released 17 days ago, DeMaio is flat, Filner is up 7 percentage points and Fletcher is up 2.

Early voting began on May 7. Among the 28 percent of polled voters who said they have already voted, DeMaio has 36 percent, Filner has 31 percent and Fletcher has 16 percent.

Among the 72 percent who said they have not yet voted but are certain to do so on or before June 5, DeMaio has 29 percent and Filner and Fletcher each have 26 percent.

The question asked was, "If the primary election for San Diego mayor were today, who would you vote for? Carl DeMaio? Bonnie Dumanis? Bob Filner? Nathan Fletcher? Or some other candidate?"

Results:

31% Carl DeMaio

11% Bonnie Dumanis

28% Bob Filner

23% Nathan Fletcher

3% Other

4% Undecided

Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.3%

Of 542 actual and likely voters polled on Thursday, 57 percent would vote for Proposition B to replace pensions for new city employees with 401(k)-style retirement plans. Twenty-one percent would vote no and 22 percent are not certain.

The question asked was, "On Proposition B, which would replace pensions with 401(k)-style plans for most newly hired city employees, are you ... Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain?"

Results:

57% Yes

21% No

22% Not Certain

Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.3%

Channel 10 is a media partner with KPBS.

Comments

Avatar for user 'laplayaheritage'

laplayaheritage | June 1, 2012 at 8:06 a.m. ― 1 year, 10 months ago

New video highlights Bob Filner's experience as a regional leader!

Have you seen this video released last week detailing Bob’s history of creating positive change in San Diego? If not, see why so many voters know that Bob Filner is the only candidate with the leadership and experience needed to move our City toward a brighter future. As Bob said himself, we have the opportunity during this election to choose a new direction:

“Why not have a city where we dream again of greatness? So let’s dream! And working together we will make San Diego America’s greatest city.”

This election is nowhere near decided! Every vote will count, so please forward on to friends and family!

Please Like Bob on Facebook and follow him on Twitter.
https://www.facebook.com/bobfilnerformayor
https://twitter.com/BobFilnerMayor

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Avatar for user 'Peking_Duck_SD'

Peking_Duck_SD | June 1, 2012 at 10:09 a.m. ― 1 year, 10 months ago

DeMaio's camp, which includes political activist/ real estate developer/ journalism destroyer Manchester as well as the local Republican Bosses are **terrified** about the general election.

Sure, DeMaio will make the runoff, there are still enough backwards people in San Diego to make that happen.

But there **aren't** enough backwards people to elect him in the general election.

San Diego has progressed, we are a diverse, moderate city that has more registered Democrats than Republicans.

And even amongst Republicans, many here prefer a more moderate balance that includes being more liberal on social issues but more conservative on economic issues.

DeMaio represents the old-school Manchester form of government.

A bunch of plutocratic extremely wealthy white men sitting in a room completely detached from the realities of our city's citizens making decisions that only bennefit fellow rich,white, old guys.

I'm pretty confident that both Mr. Filner or Mr. Fletcher can beat DeMaio in the general election.

I will be voting for Mr. Filner on June the 5th, and so will most of the people I know.

My Republican friends have rejected Mr. DeMaio and have told me they are voting for Mr. Fletcher because he is more transparent and moderate.

I think the fear over the general election riddling DeMaio's camp was clearly illustrated when the *PRAVDA UT* propaganda minister **Jeff Light** unwittingly spoke while being recorded about his fear of Filner making it to the general election because he can beat DeMaio.

This is straight from the heart of San Diego's small but powerful Republican elite who have controlled the city for years. Mr. Light's slippage comes directly from high level talks by Manchester and local Republican Political Bosses who have hitched their star to Mr. DeMaio.

They are worried.

They are **very** worried.

San Diego has changed, and that's **not** good news for DeMaio.

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Avatar for user 'Missionaccomplished'

Missionaccomplished | June 1, 2012 at 10:40 a.m. ― 1 year, 10 months ago

Liberal Democrat Brown's late support for Republican turned (some would say opportunistically) "independent" Fletch is an interesting move. Snub on fellow Demo Filner who has NOT supported Obama 100% the way he used to support Clinton.

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Avatar for user 'Missionaccomplished'

Missionaccomplished | June 1, 2012 at 10:42 a.m. ― 1 year, 10 months ago

Anthother interesting bit is Fletch's former close ties with the Dukester Cunnigham, convicted felon, who was recently in the news.

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