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News In Numbers: Half Of San Diego County Extremely Vulnerable To Wildfire

Map of San Diego County showing regions vulnerable to wildfire

Wildfire Predictions For San Diego County


Tom Rolinski, meteorologist, U.S. Forest Service


More than half the land in San Diego County — including neighborhoods reaching almost to the ocean and densely settled foothill cities — is at high or very high potential for difficult-to-control wildfire, according to data gleaned from maps prepared by the U.S. Forest Service.

Even for a region steeped in the ways of defensible space and brush clearance, the map is sobering.

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inewsource is an independent nonprofit dedicated to providing in-depth, data-driven journalism on the web, radio and TV.

Almost a quarter of all terrain in the county falls into the highest hazard potential category, colored red on the map. That includes the area west of Interstate 15 near Escondido; Los Peñasquitos Canyon Reserve, just two miles from the ocean northeast to state Route 56; Mission Trails Regional Park; much of the city of Santee; the lands of the Sycuan Band of the Kumeyaay Nation; Brown Field Municipal Airport and lower Otay Mesa on the U.S.-Mexico border. Much of the vast arc of land between Fallbrook and Borrego Springs is also red.

Fully 29 percent of the county is in the next highest-risk category colored orange. This includes a six-mile radius around Ramona, all of Camp Pendleton, the land east of Poway, part of the Miramar Marine Corps Air Station and the land east of Bonita.

Devastating fires struck the San Diego area in 2007. Half a million people, from Oceanside to Chula Vista, were asked to evacuate. The Witch Creek fire alone that year burned almost 200,000 acres.

The map was prepared by the Forest Service Fire Modeling Institute. It’s not intended to be definitive or exact, but as a tool to to be paired with population, building and power line information to fully gauge risk. inewsource asked the geographic information firm ESRI to analyze the color data, which generated the percentages.

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