California’s U.S. Senate Race: Unique, Historic And Utterly Boring
KPBS.org is streaming Wednesday night's debate between candidates Kamala Harris and Loretta Sanchez at 7 p.m.
Wednesday, October 5, 2016
California's U.S. Senate Race: Unique, Historic And Utterly Boring
Seth Hill, political science professor, UC San Diego
The last time California had an open U.S. Senate seat, Bill Clinton was running for president. Nearly 25 years later, the winner of this race is guaranteed to make history. But with the only general election debate set for Wednesday night, hardly anyone in California seems to be paying attention.
Recently, some Modesto community college students were about to show off their school to Kamala Harris, the frontrunner in California’s U.S. Senate race — but they weren't exactly sure who she was.
Students like Samantha Whiteman wasn’t quite sure which party Harris was affiliated with, or how to pronounce the candidate’s first name.
“Right now, my concentration’s mostly on school and trying to juggle school and work and clinicals,” Whiteman said, so she’s not paying a lot of attention to this Senate race.
But neither are most other Californians. A recent poll asked voters which race they were most enthused about, and just 2 percent said this one. Perhaps that’s because the two candidates have so much in common.
“People use party ID. And then there’s gender ID. And then there’s race or ethnicity ID. We have two Democrats: two women and two women of color,” said Mindy Romero, who studies voter engagement at UC Davis.
Harris is California’s Attorney General, and she’s backed by the Democratic Party establishment. She’s half black, half Indian; she’d be the first Indian-American senator and the second African-American woman. And she’s earned a reputation as ambitious yet cautious.
“There’s a big difference between being a supporter of something and being a champion of it,” Harris said.
Her opponent’s style couldn’t be more different. Orange County Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez is known for being brash. She’s in her 20th year on Capitol Hill, and she’d be the Senate’s first Latina.
“You can trust me to stand up to the establishment,” Sanchez said the night she finished second in the June primary. “California voters have sent the political establishment a message!”
Another reason so few voters are engaged could be that an entire major political party is left out. Under California’s primary system, the top two finishers — regardless of party — advance to the November election. And California’s first same-party statewide runoff begs the question: What’s a Republican to do?
“Well, in my case, I’m probably gonna leave it blank,” said Tony Alosi, a Republican who volunteered for Ted Cruz in the California primary.
Polls suggest about a third of GOP voters are like Alosi.
“You can’t really forecast what’s going to happen just because one Democrat is slightly less Democratic than the other one,” Alosi said.
Another third of the Republican electorate is splitting its vote between the two Democrats. The last third is undecided, including Erik Laykin, who founded LA Trump and attended this year’s Republican convention.
“One still needs to cast a vote for the candidate that most closely represents your views, even if it’s by a far stretch,” Laykin said.
Polls show Harris in the lead. With the presidential race drowning out everything else, Wednesday night’s debate could be Sanchez's only chance to catch up. For her to have any shot at winning, she'll need Laykin’s vote — and every other Republican and independent she can get.
“There is a path for a moderate Democrat to win this kind of a race,” Republican political consultant Cassandra Pye said. She said that path would require lots of endorsements and slate mailers — from the Sanchez campaign or outside groups. But none of that has materialized yet, and early voting starts next week.
“And when you think about it, I’m sort of the quintessential sort of Sanchez voter in this race, right? I’m not liberal, I am a Republican, I’m a woman, and I’m a perpetual voter, and I’ve seen nothing. I’ve seen no evidence of a campaign,” Pye said.
That’s the great irony of this race: It’s unique, historic and utterly boring. Which suits Kamala Harris just fine.
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