In Bali, Climate Future Is Under Negotiation
More than 180 nations are meeting in Bali, Indonesia this week to discuss a future global pact on fighting climate change. The first phase of the Kyoto Protocol on climate expires in 2012, and the United Nations is asking representatives meeting in Bali to think about what's next. Here, a look at some of the major issues:
How do you get the big greenhouse emitters to play?
Perhaps the biggest issue on the table is how to get the world's biggest greenhouse gas producers — including the United States, China and India — to agree to participate in a future agreement. The U.S. backed out of the 1997 Kyoto accord, which set specific emissions targets, after the Bush administration decided it would be too expensive and not very effective. China and India were not included because they were developing economies, and argued that developed nations should take the lead.
Experts agree that all of these big players must agree to take significant action to cut future emissions of warming gases, such as carbon dioxide, if any agreement is to be effective. But many nations are skeptical of Kyoto-style mandatory cuts and want more flexible voluntary approaches. The focus in Bali will be coming up with a menu of incentives and strategies acceptable to all the players.
How warm is too warm?
Nations will ultimately have to agree on how much warming we are willing to accept. Scientists say the world is already committed to nearly three degrees Fahrenheit of warming. Many European governments argue that the ultimate limit should be 3.5 degrees — anything above that would have dangerous consequences. To stay within that limit, researchers say the world has just a decade or two to take major steps to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases.
What's the timetable?
With the end of the first phase of the Kyoto accord just four years away, some nations are pushing to have a clear framework for a new agreement in place by 2009. But that timetable could be delayed by a wide range of factors, from the results of the November 2008 presidential elections in the United States, to political shifts in China and Europe.
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