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Military Successes Boost Iraqi Leader's Confidence

RENEE MONTAGNE, host:

And in Iraq, the debate has turned to how quickly U.S. forces could completely withdraw. Officials in Baghdad say U.S. combat troops could be out of Iraqi cities by June 2009, and the rest of the country by 2011. That's if conditions continue to improve. What's not certain is whether the Iraqi army is ready to take responsibility.

Some Iraqi soldiers say they don't have the resources they need, even though their American trainers say the Iraqi army has improved dramatically in the last two years. It can now plan and execute its own operations. And the government of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is getting stronger, too.

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Increasingly, the government's been asserting itself, and sometimes in ways at odds with U.S. interests, as NPR's Lourdes Garcia-Navarro reports from Baghdad.

Major General MARK HERTLING (Commander of U.S. Forces, Northern Iraq): Well, if you can't make it today, I'll come down next week some time.

LOURDES GARCIA-NAVARRO: Major General Mark Hertling, the commander in charge of all U.S. forces in the north of Iraq, has just had his appointment cancelled.

Governor RA'AD AL-TANIMI (Diyala Province, Iraq): Next week good, next week.

GARCIA-NAVARRO: Diyala Province Governor Ra'ad Al-Tanimi tells him that he can't make the scheduled time. Maybe next week, he says.

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This is a scene that would've been almost unthinkable a year ago. Iraqi politicians, especially those outside Baghdad, once made time any time for American generals. It's a small sign of a bigger trend.

After General Hertling departs, Tanimi boasts proudly that things have changed in Iraq.

Gov. TANIMI: (Through translator) We do not know the meaning of being submissive, and we do not take orders. We govern through our own self-determination. The most important thing was to restore our own sense of self, of pride. And I promise you, that is back.

GARCIA-NAVARRO: And nowhere can this new assertiveness be seen as clearly as in the recent actions taken by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. Maliki is, in many ways, an American creation. The U.S. backed him while many viewed him as weak, out of touch, and sectarian. Now after successful military offensives against militants in hot spots like Basra and the Baghdad slum of Sadr City, Maliki is popular and increasingly confident. In the ongoing talks with the Americans on a status of forces agreement, it was Maliki who demanded some kind of timetable for a U.S. troop withdrawal. President Bush had always been against putting dates down on paper. But the although the agreement is not yet complete, it appears that Maliki has gotten his way.

Dr. JOOST HILTERMANN (Iraq Specialist, International Crisis Group): The United States is losing leverage on the ground in Iraq, and that's becoming visible on a daily basis in the various meetings that are taking place. So I think there is a psychological move in that direction, and the Iraqis are taking advantage of that.

GARCIA-NAVARRO: Joost Hiltermann is an Iraq specialist with the International Crisis Group. He says the time is right for the Iraqis to assert themselves. They are dealing with an unpopular American President on his way out and the possibility in the not-too-distant future that there will be far fewer U.S. troops here. Also, Iraqi provincial elections are coming up soon, and it plays well for Maliki to look and sound nationalistic. But more than rhetoric, some of the Iraqi government's recent actions are worrying Washington.

Dr. HILTERMANN: I think because of vacuum in Washington, in many ways, it's the monarchy government that has been allowed to steer policy, even if it's contrary to American interest.

GARCIA-NAVARRO: In some parts of the country, the Iraqi government has recently targeted the awakening movement, also known as the Sons of Iraq, Sunni tribal leaders who allied themselves with the U.S. to fight al-Qaida in Iraq. That has placed the Americans in the difficult position of having to protect a movement they funded and fostered from the Iraqi government they have long supported. Joost Hiltermann.

Dr. HILTERMANN: I would argue that in the case of the Awakening Councils and abandoning those, letting - setting them loose is, in fact, contrary to American interests. So I think we're in a period where clearly, even though the Iraqi government remains dependent in many ways on American military power, the actual leverage that the Bush administration is able to bring to bear on the monarchy government is very limited.

GARCIA-NAVARRO: Privately, senior U.S. military officials tell NPR they're worried that the government is threatening all the achievements of the much vaunted surge. The Sons of Iraq program, which employs 100,000 Sunnis in security roles, is credited with vastly reducing violence in the Sunni heartland and parts of Baghdad. Nouri al-Maliki's Shiite led government has been leery of incorporating these former Sunni fighters into the security forces. In recent weeks, it's placed many of the leaders on an arrest list. The Americans have been able to do little about it so far. Ali al-Adeeb is a close advisor to Nouri al-Maliki.

Mr. ALI AL ADEEB (Advisor to Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki): (Through Translator) We have confidence. This confidence doesn't come from nothing, otherwise it would be called arrogance. Our self-confidence comes because of our achievements. You'd think that the Americans would be happy because the more confidence we have, the less we need them.

GARCIA-NAVARRO: He says that Iraq's government has its own agenda, and that's the way it should be. Still, few deny that the American presence here remains vital. Maliki still faces a host of challenges, and not even the most optimistic of his aids claims they are ready to go it completely alone.

Lourdes Garcia-Navarro, NPR News, Baghdad. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.