MAUREEN CAVANAUGH: Our top story on Midday Edition, the accepted wisdom on midterm elections is that it is hard to get people interested in them. That may not be the case this year. Across the nation there are a number of extremely tight races that could determine which party controls the Senate. Here in San Diego, there not only hotly contested races, but a new allegation of sexual misconduct in one of the most expensive congressional contests our county has ever seen. Joining me to discuss this remarkable midterm election are my guests Vince Vasquez our Senior Policy Analyst with the National University System Institute for Policy Research. Vince, welcome to the program. VINCE VASQUEZ: It is good to be with you. MAUREEN CAVANAUGH: Carl Luna is Political Science Professor at Mesa College. It is good to see you. CARL LUNA: It is good to see you again. MAUREEN CAVANAUGH: First off though, one of the elements that has been introduced in the 52nd District race is a second allegation of sexual misconduct against Republican Carl DeMaio reported first by KPBS. KPBS News and digital editor Laura Wingard is here. Laura, welcome to the program. LAURA WINGARD: Thank you, Maureen. MAUREEN CAVANAUGH: This story Laura involves a former staff member of the DeMaio campaign who claims DeMaio exposed himself to him back in July. Besides the staffer’s claims, how much corroboration does KPBS need before it runs a story like this? LAURA WINGARD: Well, we have been working this story not just for this weekend as some people have been speculating out there. This story first came to our reporter Claire Trageser, um or this source first came to her the week of October 20th. It was on something totally unrelated. Justin Harper reached out to her on something totally unrelated. So she followed up with him and she eventually got he eventually talked to her about what had happened to her. He talked to her on the record last weekend. The weekend of October 25th, he didn't want his name used. So she was working with three editor’s our newsman Susan Marmion, myself, and Lorie Hearn the editor and executive director of inewsource our media partner. We did a thorough background check of Justin Harper and we looked into these claims. We have talked to other people and looked at records and we were confident in our reporting that this story was true. That said, we wouldn't go with it when he was anonymous. MAUREEN CAVANAUGH: Now, there has been criticism that KPBS has chosen to run this story 48 hours before the election. How do you explain that? LAURA WINGARD: The reason we did that was because, it would have been remiss of us to sit on this when we knew this allegation was out there. It is not the first allegation to come forward and we gave the DeMaio campaign an opportunity to try to discredit it or to give us information that showed something else. They did not. MAUREEN CAVANAUGH: And if it hadn't been for the sexual claims made against Bob Filner after he was elected, do you think KPBS would have run this story before an election? LAURA WINGARD: I wasn't here at KPBS during the Filner scandal, so I can't speak to that. I can say that in three decades of being a political reporter and editor mostly almost exclusively at newspapers until I came to work here. I have broken stories as a reporter and as an editor close to the election and it is something that is weighed very carefully by the newsroom and the reporter and the editors and you usually put it out there because you realize that you will regret it more if you sit on it and then publish it afterward. So people say, "Why didn't you tell us about this or sit on this?" We felt this story was important enough to let the people know and let them decide, and I think we did a very fair job in our coverage of this. We show the connection between the Peter's campaign and the um, and Justin Harper, that Justin Harper sent an email to Mary Anne Pintar, Scott Peters press um campaign manager. She forwarded that email to Todd Bosnich. MAUREEN CAVANAUGH: The first accuser? LAURA WINGARD: The first accuser, and I think that raised questions. So we went to them and um, you know they gave their response so we lay that all out. So that story was not brought to us by the Peter's campaign. That's another reason why we felt comfortable doing it. MAUREEN CAVANAUGH: Laura Wingard, thank you very much. You can read this story and the DeMaio campaign's response on our website KPBS.org. Now, let me reintroduce my guests Carl Luna is here along with Vince Vasquez. Let me first ask you both for your reaction to this story of a second accuser and the timing of the story. Let me go to you first convince. VINCE VASQUEZ: You know, I think that clearly this is late in the campaign and I think especially with the older voters they anticipate to some degree what we would call an October surprise, something that would make an impact in the way people vote or shape their opinions about the candidates. However, with such a low voter turnout and such early voting, I think the impact of this will be very limited. MAUREEN CAVANAUGH: And Carl? CARL LUNA: I quite concur. This late in the game, a bunch of voters have already turned in their ballots and voters have pretty much solidified they are viewpoints. I mean if either candidate were to run through the streets with a AK47 shooting up the neighborhoods I don't think it would have an impact on the way that voters are really looking at this point because most of them are not really going to be paying attention to anything down until after the election. MAUREEN CAVANAUGH: The latest polls show that Republican Carl DeMaio and Democrat Scott Peters are virtually neck and neck in the 52nd Congressional District. Let's look at this from the perspective of incumbency Carl, why is Scott Peters having such as hard time as an incumbent whereas most congressional incumbents are sailing back into office? CARL LUNA: It is a perfect storm Maureen. He is in a district, the 52nd, which is very close in terms of the division between Republicans, Democrats and Independents. It is one of the few in the country that can flip. He has an unpopular standard barrier in terms of his President, so that works against him as a Democrat. It is a midterm election, which typically means that the Republicans get a better turn out of a very low electoral turn out. We are going to be in the way below 50 percent on this. All of those factors work against him each though he is an incumbent that is why he is one of the most vulnerable Democratic or Republican incumbents in the country. On the flip side, the reason it is not a blow out against him is the fact that Republican Carl DeMaio is just not the strongest of Republican candidates. He has a hard time reaching out to voters to get them to like him beyond the City Council space, although this is the area of the city where he got elected to the City Council. He didn't get elected Mayor. The bottom line is Scott Peters has not been able to do much in the minority which works against him, but it also works for him. There is not a lot that you can hang him on. MAUREEN CAVANAUGH: Now, Vince you have done an analysis of the mail in ballots that have been returned so far in the 52nd District. What have you found out about those particular mailing ballots? VINCE VASQUEZ: We were actually surprised in the fact that um, when you began to see these early absentee ballots trickling in we had about 42 percent of those ballots cast were Republican ballots and about 72 to 73 percent of those voters were about 55 years of age or older. So we know that older voters, Republican voters typically are the first absentee voters to cast ballots. And then you see the demographic shift to younger voters to Democratic voters and Independents. We have not seen that shift and that is troubling news for the Scott Peter's campaign. And it is surprising to us because we actually predicted for this to be more of a purple, more mod rail fall election with new and frequent voters showing up in coastal areas not necessarily it hasn't happened. MAUREEN CAVANAUGH: It hasn't happened with the absentee ballots, so can we truly extrapolate from that as to who is going to show up at the polls tomorrow? VINCE VASQUEZ: So there actually has been an election dynamic over the last ten or 15 years where we have gone from Democratic voters weighing heavily to vote on Election Day and Republican voters being the absentee voters. So you would see this jump, but the permanent absentee voter program in California has been very popular with both sides. So, they are actually casting their ballots at about the same rate. So you are going to get the more or less same Democratic and Republican ballots that you would get earlier as you will late. There might be a demographic shift and maybe slightly younger voters that are a little bit more diverse closer to an election day. But, you know, we can make more um accurate observations about the election and who has an edge, not necessarily who is going to win, but certainly who has an edge. MAUREEN CAVANAUGH: Right. Carl, there has been a lot of puzzlement over the amount of money and attention paid to this 52nd District election when it truth it is not going to matter much in terms of legislation in Washington, is that right? CARL LUNA: Well, yes. The House is going to be Republican and the Senate is probably going to be Republican but not the filibuster. There is the precedence of veto, I have compared this election to the Battle of the Somme you are spending a lot of resources for a limited yardage and it is not going to change the tactical or the strategic situation. That being said, since there are decisions by the Supreme Court, the money is out there. Now, what you are seeing in this case is a test marketing of ideas and money to see how it will play in 2016, for more historical analogy this is like the Spanish Civil War with a fascists versus the communists trying out for the big one World War two. MAUREEN CAVANAUGH: So, they are trying out different streams of revenue and different arguments to make that may resonate with voters in 2016? CARL LUNA: That would be my analysis, otherwise why are you spending $10 million in San Diego on a seat as you said that doesn't matter all that much. Certainly, the Republicans would like to pick it up. In 2016, certainly there is the seat swaps back again until the 2020 redistricting, that is a district that will stay in play midterms Republicans do well and general elections Democrats do well. MAUREEN CAVANAUGH: Now, the race that does matter in the balance of power in San Diego City Hall is district six, Republican Chris Cate is running against Democrat Carol Kim. Carl, tell us what is at stake? CARL LUNA: Right now the Democrats, because of Mr. Faulkner becoming the Mayor, they have a 63 majority vote in the council which means they can override a Mayoral veto, if Mr. Chris Cate wins, which he has a good odd of doing, it goes back to being the 54 Democrat Republican that means Kevin Faulkner matters for the next two years, veto things that Council comes up with now minimum wage going to the ballot with Barrio Logan off the radar scope, it is not going to be the big issues, the big bond issue infrastructural will be one off the big fighting points. But there is going to be quiet times until the 2016 election. MAUREEN CAVANAUGH: Vince, what does the mail in balloting tell us about the District 6 race? VINCE VASQUEZ: So in District 6 welfare been following those early absentee ballots as well. We actually find an even more split between Democratic and Republican ballots, the reason being you have a larger Democratic edge in that district versus the 52nd you have a slight Republican edge in terms of registration. Um, and I think that is something where we sort of come to the conclusion that both candidates are going to be locked in a tight race and probably campaigning until the final minutes of election day. So, this race might come down to a few hundred votes. Also it is a different dynamic in the fact that you have more undecided voters Chris Cate has made media appearances before on behalf of the Taxpayers Association. At the same time, there really are new candidates to the voters, so I feel there are more undecided voters whereas Carl DeMaio and Scott Peters have been on the ballot multiple times and they have very high name ID. MAUREEN CAVANAUGH: All right. Carl? CARL LUNA: I think it is very interesting that that race has gotten so tight because Chris Cate back in the June primary was like at 47 or 48 percent, his distance to goal was very small. Carol Kim had a lot of yardage to makeup and it would seem that the new voters coming into it in November are breaking more toward her side than you would have thought. This probably should have stayed a Republican seat. So that's an interesting race to watch. My question then is if there is a dynamic like that, that might be under the radar working in Scott Peter’s district. Maybe that will help Peters, I don't know though. MAUREEN CAVANAUGH: Vince pointed out that District six race is pretty tight, the polls show that the DeMaio and Peters race is pretty tight, what is the likelihood that we are not going to know who won these races, Carl until midnight on Tuesday? CARL LUNA: It is more likely than not it is more likely than one would have thought going into this stage of the election. For the seats at stake, the City Council seat and the Congressional seat. I think voters can get a decent night’s sleep on Tuesday and wake up on Wednesday and find out the results without having to sweat it as much as the presidential. MAUREEN CAVANAUGH: And then, Vince what have you been finding out on the overall number of mail in ballots throughout the county, what does that tell us about the turn out? VINCE VASQUEZ: You know, we actually had to downgrade our original predictions about turn out this election. We originally had thought maybe 42 to 46 percent of voters would be casting their ballots here in San Diego County and that is based on historical trends and looking at data from prior elections. Clearly, it is going to be somewhere in the range of 34 to 38 percent and that is going to be another historical 30year low for a gubernatorial election here in San Diego. MAUREEN CAVANAUGH: Does that have to do with the fact it is in a lot of people's eyes, it is not really a gubernatorial election, certainly at least not a gubernatorial election, at least not a contested gubernatorial election since the polling shows that Brown is going to run away with the race. VINCE VASQUEZ; right, we actually released a report today and we talked about that because I think there has been some back and forth is this really an issue of a fictoral electorate that is sitting on their hands and choosing not to vote and sitting this one out? I think there are so many factors here at play that suggests this is something systemic, we are actually having a growing disengaged electorate here that is choosing not to vote for a number of different reasons and we inspect this trend to continue throughout the end of the decade. MAUREEN CAVANAUGH: You know, we are not going to have time to talk about them, but there are an awful lot of Mayor Races across the county. There are state propositions, just wondering finally if I can ask you both what other race that we have not talked about are you particularly interested in seeing how it turns out. Carl? CARL LUNA: The race I am looking at is the race of public disinterest because I think that's the most important number that is going to come out of this election. MAUREEN CAVANAUGH: The turn out? CARL LUNA: The low voter turnout. I have heard this election called nationally the "Ehh" the "Meh" the new mediocrity the Seinfeld, say what's with that election? This is a systemic problem as Vince is pointing out that we need to deal with this as a country because pretty soon our democracy is going to be shallow in meaning when with comes down to 20 percent of the voters deciding. MAUREEN CAVANAUGH: And Vince, is there a particular race that you are looking at? VINCE VASQUEZ: Yes, maybe the Poway Mayoral race, the reason being you have two Republicans and you have longterm incumbent I think somebody has been there in elected office for over 30 years. MAUREEN CAVANAUGH: And that would be? VINCE VASQUEZ: Is it Higgins? And then, you also have though a contender who has the endorsement of the Republican Party, they are both Republican candidates. I think this to some degree will test the power of the Republican Party in San Diego and Steve Vaus who is wellknown and he is popular he's a country singer and he has a really good chance of picking up that seat. MAUREEN CAVANAUGH: All right. Then, we will be watching it all and I know that you will be watching it all. We are going to have you back. We are going to analyze the election on Wednesday. I want to thank Carl Luna, Political Science Professor at Mesa College. Vince Vasquez Senior Policy Analyst with National University System Institute for Policy Research. Thank you both very much. VINCE VASQUEZ: Thank you. CARL LUNA: Thank you.
The accepted wisdom on midterm elections is that it's hard to get people interested in them. That may not be the case this year. Across the nation, a number of extremely tight races could determine which party controls the Senate.
Here in San Diego County, there are not only hotly contested races but allegations of sexual misconduct by Republican congressional candidate Carl DeMaio. He is trying to unseat first-term Democratic Rep. Scott Peters in one of the most expensive congressional contests the county has ever seen. About $10 million has been poured into the race.
Will voters turn out at the polls? A new report from the National University System Institute for Policy Research projects only about a third of registered voters will cast ballots by Tuesday.
Using data from the Registrar of Voters Office and Political Data Inc., the policy research institute evaluated early ballots received for Tuesday's gubernatorial election.
The institute, which found that people have been slow to return their mail-in ballots, predicts Tuesday's voter turnout will be 34 percent to 38 percent.
Initial projections had pointed to a 42 percent to 46 percent turnout for the entire election.
The institute's Vince Vasquez said fewer people are voting and that is a trend that is expected to continue. He said even if people are determined to turn things around, it will not happen overnight.
"Once we do come to consensus as to what works, I think it is going to take real political capital to make it happen," Vasquez said. "That's the reason why we're saying we don't expect for this to trend to end except for maybe sometime by the end of the decade. Its just simply going to take more time."
Vasquez said voters overwhelming cast the majority of ballots in advance, and he predicted less than a third of the vote will be cast at polling places on Tuesday.
