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Conflicting Poll Numbers In California's U.S. Senate Race

Kamala Harris, left, and Loretta Sanchez, right, are pictured in these undated photos.
Kamala Harris / Loretta Sanchez
Kamala Harris, left, and Loretta Sanchez, right, are pictured in these undated photos.

Conflicting Poll Numbers In California's U.S. Senate Race
Conflicting Poll Numbers In California's U.S. Senate Race GUEST: Mark Baldassare, president, Public Policy Institute of California

There are 17 state initiatives on the ballot and that does not include a couple local San Diego measures. A poll out today says that when given a synopsis and with some of the measures to know how they're going to vote. Here is the latest survey, the president Mark thank you for joining us. Thank you. There are 17 state Elliott measures, how did you pick the ones you wanted to tell Californians about? We know that the marijuana legalization one has gotten a lot of attention as controversial, and there is a tax extension, it's meaningful for the state's fiscal situation, related to the funding of education, the school bonds, and healthcare. Through the cigarette tax. So there are many others that we wish we could've asked about that but we only have room for four in our survey. But you think it is that voters think that the marijuana initiative was most important? The voters have 10 closely following the issue not just in California but in other states. The voters had an opportunity a few years ago to legalize marijuana and they chose not to. This would be a big change and is something that the voters of all age groups, it would be a significant change in public policy. Voters for against it, feel that this would be an important change in direction in public policy. Rates. Rather than another tax change in policy. It is interesting that with the measure of supporters? It tells us that there is a sizable group of people who do not like the idea of legalizing marijuana and I think that is something to keep in mind as the campaign for and against legalization goes on while the nation as well as California, have moved towards a more positive view of legalizing marijuana. Solid majority in Oliver polls leading up to this election most people want to legalize marijuana. There is a sizable group that feels that this would be a mistake. It would be very interesting to see how this -- how the voices of this group are heard during the election. And what they have to say that my convince those who believe that marijuana legalization is a good idea, might say, this proposition baby is not the best step forward. The other three, proposition 51, authorizing school bonds, and 55 extending by 12 years with tax increase with people earning over 250,000 and pop 56 increasing the cigarette tax. He found support for all is but the school bond one was one that seems the most precarious? The school band was the biggest surprise for me and our polling, the fact that fewer than 50% supported the state school bond. Whenever we asked about just a general idea of state school bonds, we tend to get 60% of California saying, they favor the idea, passing state school bonds, they do not directly lead to higher taxes. And there is generally a perception that were not spending enough money on our local schools in California, so it surprised me that there is a big difference between what general support is for school bonds and this particular school bond measure which speaks to the fact that the proponents will need to make the case. It will be interesting to see how that attitude affects several local school bond issues that we have in the ballot here in San Diego. Looking at the initiative process altogether contacted is, what did you learn about what voters think about the initiative process itself? People say they are satisfied with the initiative passes in California, we've seen this in our past polls, it partly reflects the fact that California is like the idea that voters have the option to make public policy and has to do with how they think about the legislative process in California. And with the state government, and most -- most California school system and initiatives on the ballot and more so overwhelming majority say that too often the measures that they are confronted with are confusing and complicated so it is a lot of work for voters. Cibecue looked at the US Senate race. Harris has a lead over Loretta Sanchez. They had a 22 point lead you have a 7 point lead. What accounts for the difference? We had an 18 point lead in our July survey, now we have a 7 point lead as you mentioned -- mentioned in the September lead. Are surveys asked the same questions and use the same apologies at both times, there's nothing that's really transpired in terms of the campaigns on either side. That would suggest that one candidate should be up or down, what's most notable about this race, is that the very large group of people who say that they would not vote that given the choice between the two Democratic candidates, they make Republican and independent voters say they would not vote in this election, about a quarter in our poll. And four and 10 altogether undecided were saying that they will not vote is a very unusual election for California to have two Democrats running against each other and no third party candidates for U.S. Senate and is creating a lot of confusion. The candidates themselves have been fairly quiet during this and Paris has had the lead in Oliver polls got all three times we were asked, is not a lot of certainty under the cameras are in this important election for U.S. Senate. As you said, the 25% who will not vote at all, Republicans, independents, what insights do draw from that? They are not familiar with these two Democratic candidates, many of them say that they are not satisfied with choices. That are presented with them. Compare that to the presidential race, 2% say they will not vote and 4% say that they do not know whether they will vote for Clinton or Trump or one of the other party candidates. Despite the fact that many people have spoken about how unpopular the president candidates are and with the Republican and Democratic side, most people, are going to make a choice, most Democrats will vote for Democrats, and Republicans for Republicans. Many independents, you know, which is between the third party and the Democrat and Republican, that just tells you the difference between the top two primary U.S. Senate and the presidential race. Moving on to the presidential race, it's not surprising that you found Hillary Clinton meeting in California. Your pool shows up 16 point lead over Trump. Given the strong numbers to our California is going to pay much attention to the date -- the debate coming up Monday? Was interesting about our pull virtually everyone said they are interested in the upcoming debate, six and 10 said that they were very interested in the debates, they want to hear the candidates talking about the issues. And the issues that surface in our pool where jobs in the economy, immigration foreign affairs and terrorism and security. Many Californians are hoping to learn from these debates, their favorite -- ever camera and when they do not like how the water where the sin of these issues. We will have to close this. To give for joining us. He is from the Public policy Institute here in California. Thank you very much.

Conflicting Poll Numbers In California’s U.S. Senate Race
Attorney General Kamala Harris boosts her lead over Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez in the new Field Poll, but the lead shrinks in the latest survey from the Public Policy Institute of California.
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California Attorney General Kamala Harris has boosted her lead over Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez among likely voters, 42 percent to 20 percent, according to a Field Poll out this week. But a new survey from the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) shows a Harris lead shrinking to 7 points. Likely voters in the PPIC poll favor Harris over Sanchez, 32 percent to 25 percent.

San Diego Mesa College political science professor Carl Luna said the differing results may be due to the challenge in nailing down voter sentiment when both candidates are from the same party. Both Harris and Sanchez are Democrats.

“If Congresswoman Sanchez is actually closing the gap, it’s because her success in tacking to the right, trying to get Republicans and trying to get some moderate to conservative independents to vote for her might be paying off,” Luna said. “Though the one consistency is that Harris is staying ahead in the polls and her position is solid to get her across the finish line.”

A Sanchez advisor contends the narrowing gap in the PPIC poll reflects growing approval for the congresswoman as voters start to pay closer attention to the race.

“They’re realizing the congresswoman serves on the Armed Services Committee and the Committee on Homeland Security,” said Luis Vizcaino, Sanchez' senior advisor. “People are thinking we need someone with national security experience.”

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A Harris spokesman said the campaign is continuing to work hard, and isn’t taking anything for granted.

“Kamala's campaign is about bringing Californians in every community together to reject the politics of fear and division,” said Nathan Click, a spokesman for Harris.

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