Democratic Sen. Christopher Dodd of Connecticut no doubt did his party a favor by deciding not to run this fall for a sixth term.
His poll numbers have long been tanking, and his retirement clears the way for a stronger Democratic candidate -- the state's popular Attorney General Richard Blumenthal.
But no one would characterize Dodd's impending exit, or that of his longtime Democratic Senate colleague Byron Dorgan of North Dakota, as anything but an ominous sign for their party going into November's midterm election.
"It's a wake-up call," says Richard "Dick" Harpootlian, a South Carolina lawyer and politico who once chaired the state's Democratic Party.
"The mood of the public is as sour as I've ever seen it and somebody's got to pay," he says. "This is the price for being in power during the darkest economic times since the Great Depression."
Though more incumbent House and Senate Republicans than Democrats so far have decided not to run again this fall, the high-profile departures of Dodd and Dorgan, and tough races faced by Democrats including Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, have highlighted the perils this year of majority party incumbency.
And the events of the past several days have thrown into question what hurdles President Obama and his agenda could face on Capitol Hill post-election, and what strategy Democrats may use to persuade disillusioned voters that the country -- and the president -- are on the right track.
Rough Terrain
"It's a hostile political environment for Democrats -- and the economy and the unemployment rate are the fuel behind all of this," says Mark Blumenthal of Pollster.com and National Journal magazine.
The president's job approval rating has fallen below 50 percent, and his favorability among the coveted independent voters has sunk even lower. The numbers, pollsters say, are similar to those faced by GOP President Ronald Reagan in 1982, when he came into office after an unpopular incumbent Democrat and during a bad economy.
"Democrats are going to lose seats in the Senate," Blumenthal says, "though it's awfully hard to see how Republicans get to a majority."
Though they are expected at this point to maintain their Senate edge, Democrats stand to lose their filibuster-proof, 60-vote caucus, which includes independent Sens. Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut and Bernie Sanders of Vermont.
History and the mood of the voters also suggest that the Democrats' 79-vote margin in the House will be eroded, though they are likely to maintain control.
"Obviously, the landscape looks a whale of a lot better for us than it did in 2006 and 2008," says Republican pollster and consultant Whit Ayres.
The best strategy for Republicans right now, Ayres said, is to run hard against President Obama and the Democratic leaders of the House and Senate. And to relentlessly hammer the congressional spending issue -- from the bailouts of the financial system and the automobile industry to the stimulus package and health care overhaul.
Recent polls show that many independent voters, who helped fuel Obama's win last fall, have soured on him. The number of Independents who say they approve of the president has dipped below 40 percent, from a high of 62 percent a year ago. But even then, when Obama and Democrats were riding high, about one-third of independents said they remained undecided about him.
"The spending has scared people, and pushed independents away," says Ayres. "Republicans smell victory."
Open Seats
But comparisons to the dramatic 1994 Republican takeover are overblown, strategists say. Republican gains on Capitol Hill will be limited by the number of open seats -- those without an incumbent running -- that are expected to be up for grabs.
"The reason Democrats lost so many seats in 1994 in a similarly hostile environment," says Blumenthal, "is that there were a huge number of retirements and open seats created by redistricting."
There were 60 open House and eight vacant Senate seats that year. Currently, 10 Senate and around two dozen house seats are open.
"Everyone right now is watching for House retirements, and, if it's a bigger number, that has bigger consequences," he says.
Democratic Strategy
For Democrats, the way forward may be a look back.
"We've got to remind people how bad things were last January," Harpootlian says. "We have to remind people that they gave Republicans the White House, the Senate and the House for six of the previous eight years, and their solution to economic woes was to cut taxes and increase spending."
In his state, for example, he says Democrats need to "remind" voters that Republican Sen. Jim DeMint, up for re-election, advocated putting Social Security money in the stock market in the years before its collapse.
But whether voters want to hear blame cast by members of a party that for more than a year has controlled the White House and Congress -- no matter how deep and intractable the problems it faced on taking over -- remains a dicey strategy. The alternative, criticizing Republicans for standing against initiatives such as the health care overhaul and stimulus program, will be a difficult case to make to voters in the ideological middle as the nation's debt reaches record highs.
Silver Lining?
With polls and focus groups showing Americans fed up with Congress as a whole there may be plenty of incumbent pain to go around. Democrats may have an opportunity to gain traction if they can get a health care bill passed and signed soon, and make the case that Republicans like longtime Sen. Chuck Grassley of Iowa worked to block the historic overhaul.
In Iowa, Grassley is expected to face his toughest challenge ever if Des Moines lawyer Roxanne Conlin, a former federal prosecutor with high statewide name recognition, gets the Democratic nod.
"I think we can send him back to the farm," says Democratic activist Sarah Swisher. Swisher says that many Democrats and moderates who have backed Grassley in the past say they believe he "turned his back on them" in the health care debate.
Though defeating Grassley is still considered a long shot, it points to the increased vulnerability of longtime elected officials who once seemed invulnerable. Like Dodd.
The good news if Democrats lose that 60-vote caucus in the Senate, but maintain a majority?
"We may have to moderate, but that will mean we'll have a better chance of getting things through," Hartpoolian says.
"And we won't have to deal with people like Joe Lieberman."
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