Unvaccinated San Diegans Account For Nearly All COVID Cases And Deaths

Speaker 1: 00:00 As the pandemic evolves. So does the Corona virus, which underscores the importance of getting vaccinated, listen to this unvaccinated or partially vaccinated San Diego genes account for nearly all COVID deaths, hospitalizations, and cases. Now the mutated and more infectious Delta variant is the main strain infecting people in the U S and right here in California, as other variants, continue to emerge. Joining me to discuss this is Dr. Christian Ramers assistant medical director of family health centers, and an SDSU professor who specializes in infectious diseases. Dr. Ramers welcome. Thank you for having me Jake. So the Delta variant is now the predominant Corona virus strain. That's causing infections in the us and California, but how about right here in San Diego county? Yeah, so Speaker 2: 00:47 We're always a little bit behind because it takes a while to sequence, uh, the viruses that people are being infected with. Uh, you are correct that in the U S it's estimated we crossed over 50%. We're at 51.7% Delta variants, and in California, over 35% are Delta variant. Um, we are certainly seeing them in San Diego. Those cases have been reported. I can't really tell you an exact percentage, but in my opinion, the patients that I'm seeing I'm in our monoclonal antibody infusion clinic right now, I'm pretty sure they're all Delta. And that's just because the speed with which Delta has taken over, for example, in the UK and in other places, the slope has been much steeper than in other places. And what we're seeing is a much higher attack rate. This number that are not, which we used to say is about two and a half, which means it means on average, a person with COVID is going to infect two and a half more people. Uh, that is probably up to more like five or six right now with the Delta variant, which means that it's much more infectious. So for example, a household in the very beginning, we would have a 30 to 40% attack rate. So you know, about a third of people in the household would get infected. And now we're seeing exactly what they described in India when this variant was first discovered, which is that everybody in the household gets infected. It's just not even a question anymore. And that's because of the increased infectiousness of Delta. Is Speaker 1: 02:03 There consensus among the scientific community on whether or not the vaccines protect against the Delta variant? Well, Speaker 2: 02:10 Consensus is a, is a tough word. Um, what we're seeing are little bits of data coming in from individual studies and that's giving us a range. Uh, there was a study from Israel that showed, uh, that the Pfizer vaccine in particular protected only 64% from infection and 93% from hospitalization. There are other studies that look better than that. So more like 88% protection from infection and 96 from hospitalization. But suffice to say the bottom line is, is that the vaccines are not quite as good against Delta as they were against the initial strains, but still quite good. Uh, and still pretty protective Speaker 1: 02:45 San Diego county reports that 140,000 county residents are overdue for their second doses of either Pfizer or Medina. Where does that leave them in terms of protection from COVID and particularly new variants, the Delta variant? Speaker 2: 03:00 Yeah, what we know so far is that those people are very, very vulnerable and that's because studies are now coming out, looking at the protection, given by a single dose against a new variant like Delta and the protection is not very good at all. Uh, so you really need that second dose to solidify the immunity and protect you against the new, more contagious variance and people that have already had COVID really need to be vaccinated because having COVID ones certainly does not protect you from these new variants. Speaker 1: 03:27 There have been headlines about those who got the J and J shot getting booster shots of Pfizer or Madrona to protect against that Delta variant. What are your thoughts? Speaker 2: 03:37 Yeah, I think any day now we're going to have a little more formal recommendation about this. It, it really does make sense. And in fact, the J and J shot was originally studied as a one dose or a two dose combination. And we're sort of waiting for what it looks like to give that second dose. We are a little uncomfortable making decisions without evidence to support it, but hopefully that evidence is coming very soon about not just that situation, but about boosters in general in the fall. And I will say that the UK has already gone ahead and kind of laid out what the fall might look like with boosters and prioritized older individuals, those that are immunocompromised or those that have underlying medical conditions, as well as healthcare workers is the first in line to receive boosters Speaker 1: 04:18 On this show. We talked about how it's a race between vaccination levels and new variants. Um, how's that race going in European? Well, Speaker 2: 04:26 I think we're still neck and neck. Um, I would say that we are, uh, in a different place than we were last year, certainly because we do have fairly good coverage of the population, especially those that are most vulnerable. So I don't think we're going to see surges that overwhelm our hospitals by any means, but where we are now is that those that are unvaccinated, as you mentioned at the top of the story are really vulnerable and they're making up almost all of the cases that we're seeing. Speaker 1: 04:50 So worst case scenario, you know, vaccination levels don't improve. This virus is able to mutate among those who aren't vaccinated. What's the biggest Speaker 2: 04:59 Fear. I think the biggest fear is that the virus continues to mutate and continues to infect enough people, to be able to mutate and then is able to get around our vaccines. That's what I think we're all afraid of that has not happened thus far. Our vaccines are still very, very good. I'd say they went from being outstanding to being very, very good at dropped from that 95%, maybe down to 80 or so, but the real concern is that the virus is going to continue to be around and it's going to continue to circulate and unvaccinated people evolve even further, pick up a few more mutations and be able to get around the vaccines. And that has not happened yet. Speaker 1: 05:36 We published today in nature, says the Delta variant bypasses the immune system and unvaccinated people. Can you explain to us how that works? Speaker 2: 05:44 Yeah. Well, I mean, these are, these are all just, uh, an accumulation of mutations that allow the surface of the virus to just sort of look different. Um, and I think what that study was referring to is two examples. Those that have had COVID before and then those that have just had one vaccine dose. And in both those situations that Delta Barrett can quite easily get around the immune response. So you really need in people that are infected to get vaccinated as well, to get those really high levels of protection that seemed to stand up against Delta. And in those that have had a single dose, they really need that second dose of vaccine. Again, to get those high levels of protection, to keep the Delta variant from infecting them. All right. Speaker 1: 06:22 I've been speaking to family health center, assistant medical director, Dr. Christian Ramers, who is also a SDSU professor who specializes in infectious diseases. Thank you so much for joining us, Dr. Ramers. Thank you.