Science and big pharma are trying to figure out how to un-clump the plaques and tangles. But as yet, there’s not even consensus as to whether these clumps, strands and tangles cause Alzheimer’s, or are the result. And even worse, some people with dementia have no plaques or tangles, and some without dementia have one or both. Making the mountain higher is the fact that there is no current blood or tissue test for Alzheimer’s. What you get is some suspicion that Alzheimer’s may be a normal part of aging, an idea that horrifies others.
Cause or result, we’re in a lot of trouble. And it’s all because of that great demographic surge – the baby boomers. They’ve started to turn 60.
More than 5 million Americans over 65 were ill with Alzheimer’s in 2007. By 2050, there will be 16 million. Medicare currently spends three times as much on dementia patients as it does on the average patient. As Boomers age, Medicare costs will nearly double from $91 billion in 2005 to $160 billion in 2010. By 2050, Alzheimer’s will cost Medicare $1 trillion a year.
There are currently five drugs on the market for Alzheimer’s. One is dangerous and rarely prescribed. The others don’t do much. The companies hope that some of them will prove effective before the avalanche of Alzheimer’s rolls is all down the hill.
Eric Karran, the chief scientific officer of Eli Lilly, said that if the pharmaceutical industry had known what Alzheimer’s looked like, they never would have started working on it. It’s a very big mountain.
