Updated at 1 p.m. ET
Hurricane Dorian is predicted to hit Florida and the northern Bahamas this weekend as an extremely dangerous Category 4 storm, bringing intense rains and sustained winds of 130 mph, the National Hurricane Center says.
With favorable conditions and very warm waters ahead, Dorian is expected to have a fearsome growth spurt in the next 48 hours. As the NHC says, "all of the intensity models forecast Dorian to begin strengthening again soon, and rapid intensification could occur."
Dorian has now left the Caribbean Sea and is over the open Atlantic Ocean, about 220 miles north-northwest of San Juan, Puerto Rico. It has 85 mph winds and is moving northwest at 13 mph, the National Hurricane Center says in its 11 a.m. ET update.
"There is an increasing likelihood of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the Florida east coast" on Labor Day weekend, the National Hurricane Center says.
Dorian is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane early Monday. But the storm surge, heavy rains and strong winds will start arriving hours earlier — and many parts of Florida could feel the storm's effects, says NHC Director Ken Graham.
"Please don't think this is just coastal," Graham says in a video update Thursday morning. "This is over the whole state."
Dorian also is expected to maintain its hurricane status as it moves inland — a process Graham says would be slow and dangerous and could produce "high impacts" through persistent wind and rain.
Pointing to an "M" on the forecast map that denotes Dorian's approach as a major hurricane and then to an "H" near the center of Florida, Graham adds, "The distance here is about 24 hours."
On the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, a Category 4 storm (with winds from 130-156 mph) can cause catastrophic damage, including damage to well-built frame homes.
"Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed," the NHC says in its guide to the wind scale. "Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months."
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has declared a state of emergency for 26 counties in the current path of the hurricane, citing forecasters' dire predictions of high winds and the chance for a damaging storm surge and flooding.
Dorian is poised to be the most powerful hurricane to strike Florida's east coast in decades. Last year, Hurricane Michael became the first Category 5 hurricane to hit the contiguous United States since Andrew in 1992. But Michael made landfall on the Gulf side of Florida, at Mexico Beach. Dorian could become the first Category 4 or 5 storm to hit the state's east coast since Andrew pummeled Homestead, as meteorologist Philip Klotzbach notes.
In 2017, Hurricane Irma made landfall as a Category 4 storm in the Florida Keys, before hitting the state a second time on its Gulf Coast.
Citing data from a NOAA P-3 aircraft, the NHC says in its 11 a.m. ET update that "there is now a double eyewall structure," with a small inner eye that's only 5 nautical miles in diameter inside a larger 25-nautical mile outer eyewall. The agency adds that the concentric structure is likely preventing the hurricane from developing stronger winds, despite a decrease in its central pressure to 986 mb.
NHC meteorologists say they expect Dorian to expand as it gains power. As of 11 a.m. ET Thursday, it was projecting hurricane-force winds up to 15 miles from its center, with tropical-storm-force winds extending up to 90 miles.
On Wednesday, Dorian drenched parts of Puerto Rico, St. Thomas and other islands. The storm became a hurricane as it approached those land masses, with sustained winds of 75 to 80 mph. Despite raising alarms in a string of Caribbean islands, there have been no reports that Dorian caused extensive damage — a relief for areas that are still working to recover from the ravages of Hurricane Maria and Hurricane Irma in 2017.
"Thankfully, there were no reports of major damage here," NPR's Adrián Florido reports from San Juan. He adds that in the U.S. Virgin Islands, "there were widespread power outages" in both St. Thomas and St. Croix, along with some flooding.
In Puerto Rico, the newspaper El Nuevo Día says that compared with Maria and Irma, Dorian served as "a great drill" to put the government's response system to a test.
Now it's Florida's turn to prepare, as a major hurricane heads toward its central east coast. The first tropical-storm-force winds could hit the state as early as Saturday night, although the most likely prediction calls for them to arrive on Sunday, the NHC says.
Both DeSantis and Florida's Sen. Rick Scott say they spoke to President Trump on Wednesday night and that he assured them the federal government is ready to help Florida.
Pete Gaynor, acting administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, says the National Response Coordination Center is now at Level 1, its highest level, because of the storm. Listing FEMA's priorities in a tweet, Gaynor says the agency will help in "re-establishing communications & power after the storm & coordinating federal resources to support local government needs."
The American Red Cross is also preparing a potential disaster response, saying it's now "getting volunteers and relief supplies ready and lining up shelters."
The NHC's Graham warns against taking the forecast's five-day cone too literally — and assuming landfall will occur precisely where the current path hits the coast: "Two-thirds of the time, based on our average error over the last five years, you could see the center of this system anywhere inside this cone."
That means that everyone from southern Georgia all the way down to the Florida Keys "really has to pay attention to this system," Graham says.
For much of the next 48 hours, Dorian will likely be on a fairly northwestern track. It's then predicted to make a left turn to the west-northwest. But the timing and angle of that shift remains uncertain, meaning any landfall predictions are very likely to change. Forecast models are predicting a number of potential paths into Florida's coast, ranging from near the Georgia border to South Florida. The current projection is based on a consensus of those predictions.
"We don't want anybody focusing on exactly where the center would come ashore," says NHC spokesman Dennis Feltgen, "because hurricanes, as we know, are not a dot on a map. Their impacts are over a wide area."
The powerful hurricane is heading toward the U.S. mainland days after the Trump administration said it's transferring some $271 million in funds from the Federal Emergency Management Agency to other units in the Department of Homeland Security, citing a need to support the president's border enforcement efforts.
The emergency transfer of money includes $155 million from FEMA's disaster relief fund, according to documents obtained by NPR.
On Thursday, DeSantis said he's not concerned about that transfer, calling it "a political controversy." As NPR's Greg Allen reports, DeSantis said at a mid-morning briefing, "They have a huge amount of money available. There's not going to be any limitations on Florida getting whatever it needs to respond to this."
With the storm currently at sea, no U.S. coastal watches or warnings are currently in effect for Dorian. But forecasters say it could skim the northwestern Bahamas on its way to the U.S. mainland.
The Bahamas Department of Meteorology issued a hurricane alert around 10 a.m. local time that covers several islands, including Grand Bahama, Abaco, New Providence and Eleuthera.
The Bahaman agency says residents "should ensure that all hurricane preparations are put in place as they can begin to experience the effects of Hurricane Dorian by Saturday night."
While Dorian caused some flooding and isolated damage in the Caribbean, there are now sighs of relief, as leaders give thanks and schools and businesses prepare to open.
In the British Virgin Islands, the Terrance B. Lettsome International Airport on Beef Island reopened early Thursday.
Giving a summary of the hurricane's effects late Wednesday night, BVI Premier Andrew Fahie says, "Thanks be to God that we have had no reports of loss of lives, serious injuries, major property damage, crimes or problems in relation to businesses being compromised. "
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