“It’s kind of like a quilt, you know, all the squares … we don’t have one chunk. It’s kind of a patchwork," Andy Lyall said, looking down on his family farm from a perch high above the Pauma Valley.
Lyall pointed out the boundaries of his family’s farm. It was a beautiful vista, illustrative of much of San Diego County’s agricultural landscape.
Lyall stood in the middle of an orange grove, talking about the crops he and his family have grown for decades on what the family calls a ranch.
“Citrus, oranges, mandarins are probably about 80%, maybe 90% of our acreage here; and about 10% avocados," Lyall said.
The Lyall operation encompasses about 200 acres, with rows of trees heavy with fruit. Andy Lyall loves what he does
“I love when I give my friends some of our oranges or avocados, and they’re like, 'That’s the best orange I’ve ever had,' or 'That’s the best avocado I’ve ever had,' or orange juice or whatever it is. Yeah, I love that. I love being able to produce good, safe, nutritious food for people," he said.
But against this bucolic background, there is concern in the farming community.
“There’s a lot of unknowns, particularly now because of the 90-day pause that was imposed," Dana Groot said.
Groot is the President of the San Diego County Farm Bureau. He was talking about the “T” word — tariffs.
“The feeling among the farming community is kind of a wait-and-see attitude," Groot said.
Part of the reason farmers are not as anxious as owners of nonagricultural businesses: farmers have been through this before.
“This is not the first go-around for San Diego County farmers. We had some experience with tariffs under Trump’s first presidency, and there were consequences for some of the growers, particularly exporting to Canada," Groot said.
Back on the farm, while an irrigation system watered his avocado trees, Lyall told us he agreed with Dana Groot. He is also taking a "wait-and-see" attitude.
“Cause I really don’t know how it’s going to play out. I think ultimately, I think it’s important that we have food security here in the United States, that we have American farmers producing food for American people first," he said.
Still, Groot said there is reason to be concerned.
“On the troubling side, of course is input costs may increase whether it’s packaging, plastic materials perhaps from China or fertilizer inputs could increase dramatically. On the export markets, we’re not too concerned about Mexico. Canada, later in the growing season, might be an issue. Again, a lot remains to be seen," Groot said.
Lyall leaves the sale of his product to others. He said the folks who market his fruit learned from the last go-round.
“They have done a really good job of finding more of a domestic market and just some other options, so that we’re not surprised by tariffs," Lyall said.
And there’s something else; something that’s ingrained in farmers across the country.
“Farmers, as a group, tend to be a little more accustomed to variables that are not within their control, so it’s perhaps a little less of a stress for them because it’s always a wait-and-see, right?” he said.
As the agricultural community waits to see what will happen with tariffs, one important data point to keep in mind. Agriculture is the fourth largest economic driver in this county at nearly $1.2 billion a year. Groot said if you count the services that depend on agriculture, it’s more than $4 billion. A lot of reasons to wait and see, and hope that if they come, tariffs don’t tarnish one of San Diego County’s economic crown jewels.
