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California's Geographic Sanders-Clinton Divide Suggests Ethnic, Rural-Urban Split

Hillary Clinton celebrates her primary wins at The Brooklyn Navy Yard on June 7, 2016.
Steve Sands WireImage
Hillary Clinton celebrates her primary wins at The Brooklyn Navy Yard on June 7, 2016.

Hillary Clinton trounced Bernie Sanders in California's Democratic primary on Tuesday. She defeated the independent senator from Vermont by nearly 13 points — 55.8 to 43.2 percent — with 100 percent of the precincts reporting.

California’s Geographic Sanders-Clinton Divide Suggests Ethnic, Rural-Urban Split
California's Geographic Sanders-Clinton Divide Suggests Ethnic, Rural-Urban Split GUEST: Carl Luna, political science professor, San Diego Mesa College Thad Kousser, political science professor, UC San Diego

Joining me for analysis of the primary election, Carl Luna. Welcome. Good to be here. UC San Diego professor of San Diego [ Indiscernible- Name ]. Welcome. Officer with you. I want to get your overall impression of the vote. This was a lower turnout. It didn't bring this big Bernie Sanders search. Is made California much bluer than we had in 2 years ago in the primary and many Republican candidates did well. We just put 2 Democrats in the top 2 for the U.S. Senate race. Boxer will be replaced by another center -- another Democrat in California clearly put Hillary Clinton on a triumphant note, helped her finish this long, very challenging and unexpectedly hard primary against Bernie Sanders. Carl, your impression? We did see Kevin Faulkner make it without a runoff. That was a strong Republican vote. You didn't have that many surprises. District one seems to stay Democrat. Dave Roberts is the Board of Supervisors. He is ahead going into the runoff. Some surprises in the city attorneys matchup the way it played out. It was interesting the minimum wage Stilwell. We have a little bit of something for everybody -- did well . We had a little bit of something for everybody. Spack it seemed to be a lopsided -- It seemed to be a lopsided race for Hillary Clinton for the primary. Thanks to you. We have reached history. This is the first time that a woman will be a major parties nomination. Now, that we were told in the last week the Clinton and Sanders were within one or 2 points of each other. Hillary claim out with a 13 point when -- win . Why were the polls wrong? Because we didn't know who was going to turn out and whether they would be able to find their way to a presidential ballot which you had to ask for if you are a no party preference voter and ask for in advance if you are an absentee voter. Last week Hillary Clinton was a terrible campaigner. She was in a neck and neck race with Donald Trump and she was making all the same mistakes that she did 8 years ago. Today, she's a brilliant campaigner. She has shattered the glass ceiling and she has a big lead on Donald Trump. We have rewritten history and California's results played a big role in that. What do you think about the media calling the nomination for Hillary on Monday? Do you think that have an impact on the vote in California? Not like it didn't like in 1980 when Jimmy Carter receded and the West Coast was still alive. That was the general election. In the age of mail in ballots, so many ballots are coming in by mail and people have made their decision. Having this happen the day before the election I think had a minimal impact. It may have depressed some of his outcome but we can't rerun the election to see what happened. I don't think it was definitive anyway. Bernie Sanders says he will stay in the race until at least next Tuesday, the final primary in Washington DC. Carl, is that a good move? Well like they say it is not over until the old senator from Vermont says it is. It depends on what his view is. If he is trying to bring his supporters back on the road to Damascus Road Hillary Clinton that is one thing. If he thinks he is courting superdelegates, he can go to super -- Philadelphia and contest and he is now Ted Kennedy against Jimmy Carter what happened again in 1980. This could cause the Democrats a world of problems. You are shaking your head. I think Bernie Sanders has soft in his told about keeping this revolution going. I think he was doing that even before he lost so badly in big states. Generally, candidates when they went your votes, fewer states, -- win they -- when they win fewer votes, fewer states, vacancy election. Donald Trump won 70 percent of the vote in California. Our campaign receive more primary votes than any GOP campaign in history no matter who it is, no matter who they are. We received more votes. Great feeling. That is a great feeling. What is Trump resonating with California voters? Not particularly. He is not going to in California in the general but it doesn't matter.-- win California in the general but it doesn't matter. Statewide it goes Democrat . A question for Donald Trump is how does he appealed to his base and reach out enough to get the necessary votes he needs to win in November ? Our own mayor, Kevin Faulkner says he will not be supporting Donald Trump do you expect to see more Republicans in California basically run away from Donald Trump? We have seen this across the country with a few leaders and even the speaker of the house calling out Donald Trump while maintaining his endorsement. There are a number of Republican members of Congress who pulled at less than 50 percent -- at less than 50 percent yesterday . We will be targeted by national campaigners and is going to be very hard for those candidates to stay with Donald Trump and Stan Congress. Speaking of local races, voters in the city of San Diego overwhelmingly voted to reelect Mayor Kevin Faulkner here to spoke with reporters last night after the victory. I'm excited and I'm very humble. I think tonight's results as I said, it is an affirmation of working together. The tone that I have tried to set as mayor -- and the results that we are getting as we are paving more roads that we have, increasing library hours, doing great things with our public safety, it is coming together and I can't wait to really continue that momentum. As I said tonight, working together collaboratively -- that is what defines us as San Diego's and I can't wait for the years ahead. This is also a big night for Donald Trump. He wrapped up the Republican nomination tonight. Did you vote for Donald Trump? As I said, I haven't endorsed him. I have been really focus on what we are doing here in San Diego and not being partisan -- there is enough partisanship on the national level. I have said we have to work closely here together in San Diego to do what is right and I think that tonight's strong numbers across the aisle, Republican, Democrat independent affirms the right approach not just here locally but what we need to see more of in our state and our country. Are you concerned that Barbara read maybe the next city councilmember? I have said all along, you work with the Council. It doesn't matter Republican or Democrat. I think I have set that style and tone and those results over the last 2 years. Having been on the Council for a number of years myself, there is always going to be some issues that you agree and some issues where you disagree. I think what is important for all of us -- and it is part of my job to help say , let's work together. Let's put any partisan differences aside and do what is best for San Diego. I think the last 2 years have shown we can do that. I said it and I mean it, it is not about partisanship, Republican, Democrat or independent, roll up our sleeves get together and do the right thing for San Diego. We have been doing that and it is working. That was Mayor Kevin Faulkner talking to reporters about his reelection bid. This was an odd kind of mayors race with 2 challengers coming in very late in the game. What do you make of that? I think it began as a male -- mayoral walk. Maybe it escalated to a trot. I don't think it was ever a race. The Democratic Party was not able to feel a good strong candidate early on. If you going to be taking on the mayorship in one of the largest cities in America, you have to bring out your a game early. You have to raise the money to do so. You can't show up 3 months ahead of time -- it's like the charger showing up a week before the seasons -- season begins trying to pull a team together . To you believe Kevin Faulkner when he says he will not run in 2018? There will be tremendous pressure here after this overwhelming victory in a blue city making him the only Republican mayor of a major city in California, there is no one else on the Republican bench at the statewide level. We're talking about the governors race and perhaps future statewide contest. There will be a lot of opportunity for Kevin Faulkner if he wants to move up. He is smart to stay away from that decision now. How to politicians get out of promises like that if indeed that is what he wants to do? As Donald Trump has shown, yesterday was so yesterday in the world of tweets. You just move on and go circumstances have changed. With that being said, Kevin Faulkner does have the advantage. He can run for governor and lose and still be mayor. If he runs for governor he will probably lose because the state had leads to the Democrats. When we return our analysts will stay with us and we will review the results of the San Diego city Council races and the state race for US Senator and much more. It is 12:18 and you are listening to KPBS Mid-Day addition . This is KPBS midday edition. 2 Democrats are expected to face each other in November in the California Senate race. State attorney general Pamela Harris and Loretta Sanchez are moving on to the general election. The story from the California report. Attorney general Pamela Harris was all smiles Tuesday night after busting 20 other candidates in the race to replace Senator boxer. She finish strong leading her closest rival, Loretta Sanchez, by double digits. We know this is the first open Senate seat we have had an almost a quarter of a century and we have a lot to do and we know the stakes are high. The eyes of the country are on this and I know we are prepared to do ourselves and our state and our fellow Californians proud. She was favored to win Tuesday. She announced her candidacy early locking up many key endorsements and Harris raise 3 times as much cast accent chairs -- cash as Sanchez. The Sanchez didn't seem fazed the. It has been an exciting campaign and we are getting ready for round 2. We need all of you -- all of you to be with us. Tuesday's results mean that Harris and Sanchez, both Democrats will face off this fall. Is the first time in California history that 2 members of the same party will appear on the ballot in a general election for the U.S. Senate. Harris is a former prosecutor who got national attention for her effort to hold big thanks accountable for the mortgage meltdown. Sanchez has made a name fighting against sexual assault in the military as a member of the House armed services committee. The matchup is the result of the top 2 primary systems approved by California voters in 2010. It leaves Republicans without a candidate in November. That stories from Marisa Lagos and Erica Aguilera. Joining me are our analyst. Now, that, there are no surprises in this outcome of the U.S. Senate race. Are you interested in how that race develops? I think it will be the first taste of what we will have to come in many times in California which is in this blue state 2 Democrats facing off in this top 2 primary in the question is whether Sanchez is able to bring this coalition of the left of center and even some Republicans to vote against Pamela Harris who beat her belly but only got 40 percent of the vote -- badly only got 40 percent of the vote. There is enough votes out there if she can make this pitch that she is the more moderate candidate. If she makes this then that will set a path for other candidates in the future. Susan Davis, Scott peters and Juan Vargas are all moving way ahead of their challengers to retain the seats. Darrell [ Indiscernible Last Name ], that was a surprisingly close race. In San Diego County, not counting his district in orange County. In San Diego County the race was 48 percent to 47 percent. It is challenger Doug Applegate. What do you think about that?-- his challenger , Doug Applegate hear what you think about that? This was a shocker. I don't think Darrell spent a huge amount of money were huge amount of time campaigning on the ground but this is a district where Republicans have in a percentage point lead. If this becomes a competitive general election in November that means Donald Trump has brought an earthquake to miracle -- American politics . We continue our review of the primary election result here in San Diego. All of the city propositions on the ballot were approved by voters. Props letter a through G were noncontroversial changes to the language of city charter and prop letter I were voters in San Diego approved opposition letter I which boosted the cities minimum wage to 1050 an hour up again to 1150 next January. It also extends earned 6 days to a minimum of 5 days a year. The center for policy initiatives was great supporter of that particular proposition. On the line with me is Dale Kelly Bankhead of CPI. Dale, welcome. Hi. I'm glad to be here. Just a slight correction I'm with the San Diego and Imperial labor Council and CPI was our partner in achieving this great victory for working people. Since the state has boosted the minimum wage, the state has boosted it to $15 an hour by 2022, many people thought the city boost to the minimum wage would it be supported by voters. So, why do you think it was? Well, I think the overwhelming number of San Diego voters were very clear that this step was needed in order to ensure that workers in San Diego who earn minimum wage aren't forced to live in poverty. We know how very expensive it is to be here -- live here in San Diego . This will enable families to come a little closer to being able to make ends meet. Although the 15 will be welcome when it comes into place, that is not going to be for a couple of years. Here in San Diego we're going to have a better quality of life for our own neighbors during that interim period of time. Think he. Dale Kelly I have to end up their. Thank you so much for joining us. I appreciate it. Ink you.-- thank you here Tell us a little bit about who came out to vote yesterday? Not as much as you might ink. If you look around the country and blue and red states you are seeing a push toward -- think . If you look around the country in blue and red states you are seeing a push toward minimum wage. The chamber of commerce took a loss on that one. They are the ones that worked hard to get that on the ballot in the first place to validate what the city Council had done The revenue is going to build up over time but it is a floor, not a ceiling. We are doing plenty right now and we are going to keep doing more. Thank you for your time complement. We have the same question to you guys. You think voters understood what the city charter revision date, that it diverts revenue in the city for the next 25 years or did they just want the roads fixed? I don't think they had the other option which is should we raise taxes and do more infrastructure. Because of Fort -- support was so strong it might involve future city councils to try to raise taxes for figure out ways to get more funds to address the problems that the councilmember talked about. That is what he said. Now that we have this foundation, maybe a future Council will actually hours for more revenue. But he is the future counselor -- counsel. When you have a $4 billion deficit , despite what we are spending now, San Diego is becoming the potholed of the world. You have a pothole in front of your house, it will be a shroud before this initiative actually puts the money in. I think you don't need to exercise to change her diet weight loss plan. At the end of the day you will need more revenue to change the plan. That is the tough attack. I am Maureen Cavanaugh with clinical analyst Carl Luna and Thad [ Indiscernible Last Name ] . The number of candidates for San Diego District Attorney really fractured the vote. Elliott and Dickie where the 2 top vote getters with 29 and 22 percent of the vote respectively. I believe Robert is on the line with us. Welcome to the program. Thanks Maureen and thanks Carl, good afternoon. He faced a number of Democratic challengers in this primary. Are you concerned those votes will now go to your challenger, Elliott? No, it is a nonpartisan race. Our message has been a positive message about the fact that good government is not good enough. San Diego's deserve better, that is my vision and my goal to bring better government to the city attorneys office. I don't see it as a partisan race. We feel confident going forward. How do you expect -- how are you going to appeal to the wider electorate and not just Republicans? It is like I said, it is not a partisan race. It is about doing better. We deserve better and we need to do better. I have a track record of keeping San Diego safe as a prosecutor. I was a 2011 prosecutor of the year for convicting a killer in a notorious double murder of 2 women. I worked at a prestigious law firm where I worked on a major public private land issue. I worked on a huge fraud case in federal court. I have a broad background in civil and criminal. I have been a leader with lawyers. I believe the city attorneys office is a leadership job. It is not a policymaker job. The important thing the attorney can appreciate is you are not making policy. Robert, thank you so much for joining us . We will talk more at a later date. Mara Elliott is on the line. Welcome. Thank you. The fact that you would be in the runoff is that trying a surprise. What do you think -- a surprise. What do you think your campaign clicked with voters quick -- ? Voters are looking for a person who is qualified to do the job the city attorney is an important player in the city of San Diego. We touch the lives of people everyday when it comes to the streets and infrastructures, everything has a wide impact in San Diego. I think they were looking for experience and qualifications and that is probably why I said out. I thank you for your time today. Thank you for calling in. Okay. Thank you. Gil Cabrera and rough they are -- Rossdale [ Indiscernible Last Name ] out ran her in funds. What do you think that is? They have been competing for the same constituency of voters. We have seen this in LA Mayor racist and in some statewide -- races and in some statewide primaries. She also had a great name next to hers on the ballot. As we head, this is not supposed to be a partisan race, but it important to hold onto the city attorneys office for the Republicans? The attorney actually endorsed Cabrera coming into this. I don't think it was like in the days where you are trying to read and interpret the office.I agree with Thad, that is what worked with them , the voters saw their positions. Oddly enough the probably look that Mister Cabrera and saw that he is attorney and we don't like lawyers but we like judges and prosecutors. In the San Diego city Council District 1, Barbara [ Indiscernible Last Name ] almost one outright with 49 percent of the vote -- won outright with 49 percent of the vote. If things turn out differently she will face Ellis in a runoff in November. I spoke with her earlier today. What are you hearing about the number of ballots left to count and whether it will raise your percentage? Honestly, we have no idea how many ballots are still left to be counted. We don't know what precincts they are from so we don't know what the impact on the race will be. So, you are just content to wait it out and maybe just go into the runoff in November? We are ready to win it in November . I am in it for the long haul. We had built a great volunteer driven team. We are in it too win. If it means campaigning until November that is fine with us. The race got pretty intense with you denouncing many of the claims that Ellis made about your stance on the issues. Do you think that we are going to see more and that -- more of that if indeed this goes into a runoff in November? I trust the voters to know the difference between when a candidate is telling the truth and when a candidate is misrepresenting the facts. On the beginning, I have run a positive issue focused campaign. That is what we intend to do on our side. We contacted the Ray Ellis campaign and they declined to be interviewed for the show. Let me go to my analyst. This district 1 race is pivotal for the balance of political policy -- power in the city Council. What would a win by either party mean for the Council? With Barbara, she is probably going to win because she came in almost across the line. This wasn't the primary but in November it will be a Democratic electorate. Sherry was a soft Democrat and she got elected. It might solidify a more progressive opposition to Kevin Faulkner requiring him and the other Republicans to cooperate more. Of Mister Ellis wins, it will be easy to get a veto approved mayoral system in place because all you have to do is pick up one Democrat. The Mayor would be off with Ellis but he could do with Barbara. This was also another crazy race. We had the husband of Sherry [ Indiscernible Last Name ] jump into the race and we had one of her former staff members. How does that set up the election for November Thad There are fences that need to be mended on the Democratic side. And Barbara can get those votes, she walked to a strong victory in November but I think because this is the last remaining big competitive race with the mayor race also not in some of the other district races sewn up, all of the money in San Diego politics is going to be flowing down Mount solid at into district 1 -- solid dad into district 1. -- soledad into district 1. Moving on, for District 3 we have an outright winner. Chris [ Indiscernible Last Name ]. He joins us now. Congratulations. Much was made about the fact that there are 2 Democrats battling to fill the seat of Democrat Todd [ Indiscernible Last Name ] who is moving on to the assembly. Will you make an effort to reach out to your constituents were not Democrats? Of course. There where I think nearly 25,000 or so votes cast in a little more to be counted. We have a number of residents and constituents who aren't in line with some of the Democratic principles. With that said, most are. I'm excited for the overwhelming majority of District 3 voters that are supporting me and the vision I have for the city. What you most eager to get on the city Council and get done right away? Certainly providing leadership on homelessness. It is a district centric issue but it has reached district -- national impacts. I think given the history of strong people like Gloria, Atkin from this district demands the master councilmember continued work on issues like that and affordable housing. Since it downtown stadium would be in your district would you be for or against any stadium ballots -- propositions on the ballot . We first need to see if it qualifies but I do not support the initiative as it has been proposed. How do you feel about stepping into glorious shoes? It is a bit intimidating but he's an old friend and have a lot of admiration for what he has done for the district. I think I bring a lot of the same work ethic and smart and heart to the job. I think people are going to see a seamless transition and the quality of service they have the district. Congratulations once again thank you for coming in. I want to go to my analyst Carl and Thad. Did anything stand out for you about this waste -- race between Chris and [ Indiscernible- Name ] for the seek we will --? Marty block that moved out of the Senate with Atkins moving in. Gloria has moved up to Atkin spot and now we have somebody in Atkin to see.-- old seat. Only in San Diego do see this rotation. You read my mind because that was what I was going to ask Thad . The fact that Gloria has been elected to the assembly it is this term limit turnover we see between the city Council and send imago -- San Diego. We are going to see less of it in the next few years because term Council has changed. Gloria looked at a seat where he could run in the state assembly and if he continues to impress voters, holds for 12 years. That seat becomes valuable instead of taking a shot at a mayoral race. We will see less turning, fewer musical chairs and that explains some of the dynamics this year. In San Diego the winning candidates for the San Diego district council 9 will face a runoff in November. Is represented by retiring city councilmember, Marty [ Indiscernible Last Name ]. This will be the first time this district will be represented by a Latino. Earlier today I spoke with one of the top vote getters, Florida's -- Florez. As emeralds Chief of Staff do you see maintaining her policies if elected. Yes, she has done a great job of listening to the community and doing what the community is interested in. We had a big victory with prop I which is something that came from our office. Absolutely, I see not only doing what is interesting to the community and advancing the community but also what's in the best interest of the citizens but most importantly for our working families. How do you see the race developing as we move forward to November? For instance, will you campaign for the County Democratic endorsement? Absolutely. I'm a lifelong Democrat. My father was a Democrat, my grandfather was a Democrat. I would be honored to have their endorsement. It is something that is important to me. In this race one the things we spoke about was I was the only lifelong Democrat that was actually running. I think absolutely I would like to have the support only because that is my belief system. How most you see yourself moving forward to November? I think were going to have to continue working hard, continue to make the case of the voters that it is important we look at the streets, sidewalks, the basic things and also making sure the voters understand very acutely that we are about the details in their government -- in their communities and not about the big picture things like a charter stadium or the citizens plant. Those things are a distraction. I think voters know that and I think we need to maintain that. That was Ricardo Florez who gained 36 percent of the vote in District 9 yesterday. I spoke with the person who will be his challenger in November Georgia Gomez. Out of this rather wide field of candidates, when you think you made the runoff? We started -- our campaign has always been one that has been very grounded in the community being that I have been a part of the district for over 15 years. I have been very involved in the community being a part of the planning groups of our neighborhoods. Also, when we still had redevelopment, I was a part of the committee. I have worked with many different groups within the district and I have a strong -- I have strong ties and people really encouraged me from the beginning to do this and people spoke very loudly yesterday that they want change. They want to see somebody that is from the community but also has understanding of policy and we saw that yesterday. Speaking specifically about district 9, there was a considerable amount of interest in the selection in District 9 -- election in District 9. Do you think that voter enthusiasm will continue until November? Most definitely. I think people came out yesterday and they came out because residents of the district -- I was walking the community and there was a strong sense of real change that only change -- positive change in the community, but actually change at the government level. They want to see somebody who is actually going to go beyond what is available for our community to bring resources, to lift up the quality of life. Georgia Gomez, thank you very much. Crawl, this election is seen as a chance for the new district 9 to assert itself on the city stage. How can they do that? The voter turnout in that district wasn't that high. You had something less than 30,000 votes cast. If you get a stronger turnout you get a good share of it, also as a new district this was Marti Emerald, Ricardo Florez with her former Chief of Staff, should he win or Georgia Gomez who was supported by Gloria, whoever win is that will set -- whoever wins that will set the tone. We will continue our review of the primary election results after this short break. This is KPBS midday edition. Our political analyst, Carl Luna and Thad are helping us through this hour of election returns . The one competitive San Diego supervisors race will feature Dave Roberts facing Kristin Gaspar. Dave Roberts was the top vote getter with 39 percent followed by Kristin Gaspar with 34. Joining me is Roberts. To the program. Thank you, glad to be here -- welcome to the program. Thank you, glad to be here. What are you going to be doing to get your numbers up by November? Actually, this was a great victory and it shows how much the voters supported my initiative and want me to stay a supervisor. I have such negative campaigns funded by outside interest. Republican parties supported one candidate and special interest groups supported the other. They all came at me and to come out in such a strong first-place finish shows I'm the one that the voters want to stay in this race. Dave, you are seeing this as a big victory so do you think the allegations of mismanagement in your office will continue to be a campaign issue up until November? I think outside special interest continue to do that because they have nothing else to talk about and they know that my opponent doesn't have the skills I have, doesn't have the success story, can't work in a bipartisan fashion like I have for the last 4 years. I think the voters can clearly see what this is all about. It is really about the future control of the Board of Supervisors and are we going to continue to make the progress we have made or are we going to head back and have people that want to pave over our countryside and really destroy our quality of life. I am standing strong. I'm fighting for my constituents and I will continue to do that. Dave Roberts. I appreciate your time. Kristin bar I spoke with earlier -- Kristin Gaspar, I spoke with earlier today here's the interview . You came out the winner to challenge Dave Roberts in November. How do you think the 2 -- two-way race is going to be different from what you had in the primary? It will be interesting to run in a two-way race. I look forward to the challenge ahead over the next couple of months. I think the ability to focus in the messaging is a -- important. When you have 2 individuals it makes it easier to get your message across. You have criticized Roberts consistently over the alleged misdeeds in his office. To you think he will continue to do that up until November? I will continue to hold him accountable for his actions while in office because I believe strongly that we need to expect more from our elected officials, that we need people to operate with the highest level of ethics and integrity while in office. There's just no denying that even if you're willing to dismiss everything else, his inability to manage his workplace with the distraction to the office -- was a distraction to the office and resulted in 2 probably close to half $1 million of taxpayers money wasted to settle disputes and legal claims and it is really unfortunate for the people in District 3 because half $1 million could go a long way toward other important issues in the region. Now, Carl Luna, supervisor seats are among the most secure in San Diego County. Is Roberts getting this challenged because he was criticized -- challenge because he was criticized or because he's the only Democrat on the board? Both, he was vulnerable because of the earlier scandal and as a result the Republican parity, Lincoln club, chamber put between them about 300,000 or more in the race and tripled what he had almost quadrupled. When he claims it was a major victory, given the money spent against him that he came in first was not a bad success. In his first race he came in 2nd in the primary to win in the general election. District 1, city Council, District 3, Board of Supervisors that is where a lot of money will be spent for Republicans to try to make up for their deficit voter registration. I would imagine a lot of money spent by Democrats to Thad I would think so because this is the one foothold they have in this very competitive County were the Democrats only have one seat on that County supervisors board. They have an incumbent that only pull 39 percent of the vote with the vote split between 2 members of the other party it will be a tough defense and democratic dollars will flow in. That is the problem they have in San Diego, the Republicans have the Chamber of Commerce, the Lincoln club, there is no Democratic equivalent. The labor of commerce is there but they don't have a Lincoln club with a can bring in the super pack to flood a lot of money in their -- there. A lot of Democrats lot to wing it -- like to wing it . They need to have a lunch at Thompson's to try to counter that. We apparently have 2 San Diego city Council races heading toward a runoff, supervisors race and city attorney. Of those, which was the most unexpected? The city attorney, there was a lot of money raised for the city attorneys race. I am wondering, having Elliott in there, is kind of a surprise. Elliott wasn't a surprise that it has gone to the runoff not really with the five-member field that was involved. That will be a question again of money versus name recognition. Mister Dickey probably has the advantage. Lots of money raised already in that race. How expensive do you think it could get? It could be in the hundreds of thousands but I think in some ways it is a surprise because it delays the demographic transformation of San Diego's political leadership. The voters have changed but yet we elected a white male Republican for mayor. This was seen as a potential be for -- beachhead for Latinos and it is apprise it wasn't made. After the primaries and before the convention there is usually a lull in campaigning. Do see that happening this year? We're coming next month to Philadelphia with the Democrats and we may not have any break. I think we are going to see no more attention to California paid. We have had hour 50 minutes of political fame and now it is over . We will see the candidates except for fundraisers. Nationally once we get closer to Labor Day we will see a lot of ads and hundreds of millions of dollars. I will ask you both to do something very difficult and 30 seconds. Carl, you first. Both parties have threatened contested conventions, how do you see the Republican and Democratic conventions turning up this year? Unless Donald Trump continues to makes those unfortunate comments which even the speaker of the house called racist, he will get to the convention, they will make their peace and they will go on to the general elections. If he seems to be self-destructing they may have to have buyers remorse and figure out a way to throw the rules out and that will be a very interesting race for the Republicans. For the Democrats it's a question on whether or not Hillary Clinton can make peace with Bernie Sanders before the convention and give him a platform he is happy with and not have it be a wrestled convention. These are going to be made-for-TV coronations. If you didn't have buyers remorse about Donald Trump you're not going to have it now. I want to thank my guess, Carl Luna, political science professor and that -- Thad [ Indiscernible Last Name ]. Thank you both so much for this our. Think you. Thank you so much for having us.

There were no exit polls last night, but the state map provides a glimpse into at least one divide between the two candidates: Clinton performed far better in the southern part of the state, while Sanders' victories were focused in the northern part of the state.

What's with the line of demarcation? The map suggests two potential (related) divides between Clinton and Sanders.


One is that throughout the primary period, Sanders has performed well among white voters. Clinton, meanwhile, has tended to perform better among African-Americans and Hispanics. And performing well among minority groups is a boost in California, where Hispanics are the largest ethnic group, making up nearly 39 percent of the state.

While exit polls have shown some states' Hispanic voters favoring Sanders, as FiveThirtyEight wrote this week, Clinton victories have tended to be large in some of the nation's most heavily Hispanic districts.

That trend was repeated in a few of California's most-Hispanic counties. Clinton leads in Imperial County — that southeasternmost one, in the lower tip of the state — by 35 points. That county, with its 82-percent Hispanic population, is the most heavily Hispanic county in the state, according to an LA Times analysis. (Because some mail-in ballots still have to be counted, the candidates' leads in different counties could still change.)

Of course, the state also has significant black and Asian-American populations. It appears that in some counties, minority voters helped push Clinton's vote total up, while white voters bolstered Sanders' totals in many places. Indeed, the five counties where Clinton got her lowest share of the vote are more than two-thirds non-Hispanic white.

This map shows the margin of victory between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders in California.
Alyson Hurt NPR
This map shows the margin of victory between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders in California.

There's also a relatively clear split between rural and nonrural counties. There are 21 rural counties in California (by the U.S. Office of Management and Budget's definition — click here for details), and Sanders leads in 16 of them. And those counties are also heavily clustered in the northern part of the state. His major non-rural victory was in Santa Cruz county, that small (but high-population) brown spot on our map on the west side of the state. And those few eastern counties he also won? They're also rural.


The rural counties trend that isn't entirely separate from the white voter trend. California's northern, rural counties also tend to be whiter than the rest of the state. (Likewise, the rural population nationwide is whiter than the nonrural population.)

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