The early returns in Tuesday’s runoff election for county supervisor show Paloma Aguirre, the Democratic mayor of Imperial Beach, with a 6-point lead over her opponent, Chula Vista Mayor John McCann.
The election is for the District 1 seat, which represents much of the South Bay and parts of the city of San Diego on the influential San Diego County Board of Supervisors.
In a campaign statement Tuesday night, Aguirre called her lead “strong” and all but claimed victory in the race.
"Today belongs to the working-class people of District 1, a nuestra gente trabajadora,” she said in the emailed statement. “Who now have a fighter at the county Board of Supervisors who will hold the line against the Trump administration.”
Reached by phone, the Imperial Beach mayor said she felt national politics had played a major role in the election. She said many voters she spoke with voiced fears about looming cuts to safety net programs like Medicaid and SNAP.
Aguirre said she was feeling grateful to everyone who supported her campaign.
“They're very worried,” she said. “And at the county, we have an opportunity to fight back.”
McCann and campaign staffers did not respond to calls, texts and emails requesting comment Tuesday night.
These early results include counts of all mail ballots that the San Diego County Registrar of Voters received ahead of Election Day, along with ballots cast in-person at vote centers during early voting.
As of 10:30 p.m. Tuesday, the Registrar of Voters estimated that there are roughly 9,500 ballots still left to count. They will provide another update at 6 p.m. Wednesday.
The ballots counted so far represent 19% of the more than 370,000 voters in the district, according to the Registrar of Voters.
This race is set to decide which party takes control of the five-member board, which was previously held by a Democratic majority and is now currently split between two Democrats and two Republicans.
The Board of Supervisors is officially nonpartisan. But in reality, party politics play a major role in how the five supervisors vote on major issues like environmental crises, spending decisions and immigration policy.
If the early results hold, that means Aguirre will be elected the next county supervisor for District 1, shifting the balance of power on the Board in favor of Democrats.
County officials have until July 31 to certify the final results.
Why it matters
Aguirre and McCann emerged as the leading candidates during a crowded April primary election.
The special election comes after the District 1 Supervisor and County Chair Nora Vargas suddenly resigned from the Board in December. In a statement, Vargas said only that she was stepping down because of “personal safety and security reasons.”
That has left District 1 without political representation on the Board of Supervisors for six months now.
County supervisors oversee the county government, which has a budget of $8.5 billion. The county administers different state and federal programs like Calfresh and Medi-Cal and governs unincorporated communities.
Historically, the Board was dominated by Republican supervisors. But in 2020, a Democratic majority that included Vargas took control for the first time in a generation.
This year’s race could continue that period of Democratic control or shift power back to Republican supervisors.
By the numbers
Elections for San Diego County supervisors are divided regionally, which means only District 1 voters cast their ballots in this election.
In addition to fundraising by the individual candidates, the race has drawn more than $3.6 million in outside spending by political committees like business groups and labor unions. That's according to the political consulting firm Edgewater Strategies, which has been tracking spending in the race.
The number of voters casting their ballot in this race is expected to be fairly low.
That's according to UCSD Political Science Professor Zoltan Hajnal, who says special elections often draw far fewer voters because they take places at irregular times during the year and aren't tied to presidential or congressional races.
Still, Hajnal said, the high stakes of the race and greater mobilization around the candidates could lead more voters to turn out.
“All that, of course, can have consequences for who wins and who loses,” he told KPBS ahead of the April primary.
So far, voters have cast their ballots at higher rates than during the primary election, according to Edgewater.
In total, county staff estimate that San Diego County taxpayers will end up spending between $4 million and $6.6 million on this election.
