Now that House Democrats have pushed through an extension of tax cuts for the middle class — sending the bill to a certain death in the Senate — they can only hope their symbolic act pays off with voters in 2012.
The bill, which passed 234-188 Thursday, would let the Bush-era cuts expire for wealthier Americans, those who earn more than $250,000 a year. It assuredly will die in the Senate, where Republicans have vowed to block any extension of the tax cuts that does not include all income levels.
Regardless, the true fate of all the Bush-era tax cuts will be decided by negotiations separately under way between the White House and Congress.
That renders the House vote purely symbolic. Republicans call it grandstanding intended to expose them to criticism for opposing a popular initiative.
Can a vote that has no teeth in the short term actually deliver a bite?
"From a public opinion perspective, I think it's safe to say that votes in one chamber or other that don't go anywhere don't tend to resonate broadly and stick in the public's minds," says Michael Dimock, assistant director of the Pew Research Center.
Republican House Speaker-designate John Boehner nearly blew a fuse at the vote, which he likened to "chicken crap." He said Democrats are "trying to set up the next election."
Indeed, many others say.
"It's a recorded vote that they could use in the next election campaign against Republicans — 'Congressman X voted against tax breaks for middle-class Americans,' " political scientist Jack Pitney, of Claremont McKenna College in California, says. "It's a standard attack. Is this one roll call vote likely to be decisive in two years? Probably not. But they are doing what they can with what they have. If you're the Democrats, you want to exercise your power while you still have it."
A Pew poll conducted last month found that 58 percent of respondents wanted tax breaks for all Americans repealed, or at least for Americans earning more than $250,000 a year. Thirty-four percent supported the extension of tax cuts for everyone.
An Associated Press poll released this week captured similar results, with 64 percent preferring to let the cuts expire for the wealthiest or for everyone, and 34 percent believing they should be preserved for everyone.
Numerous polls over the years show neither party has managed to pull the public closer to its side of the issue.
Many pollsters and strategists say that come Election Day, voters tend not to be heavily swayed by -- or even remember -- past acts of Congress that deliver no legislative outcome.
Nonetheless, the Democratic Party had to defend its brand, according to longtime Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg, who has advised the presidential campaigns of Bill Clinton, Al Gore and John Kerry.
"Republicans are always for tax cuts and always for small government. That's what the voters always remember," Greenberg says. "I don't know what the 24-hour news cycle benefit is, but I know the benefit in 2012 [elections]. The Democrats have to have an identity. They have to have meaning. Why do you have a Democratic Party if not [for] when there's a choice to be made about cutting taxes for the middle class?"
Pew is scheduled to conduct another survey this weekend with reworded questioning to gauge whether opinions might be different if middle-class tax cuts were instead capped at an income of $1 million -- a compromise proposed by Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY).
Greenberg says the Democrats are right to try to own the issue because President Obama "set a standard" during his 2008 election campaign when he identified $250,000 as the income threshold for middle-class tax cuts.
"When you poll on this question, $250,000 is more popular as the cutoff" than $1 million, he says.
The tax cuts expire at the end of the year. The tax breaks were signed into law by former President George W. Bush.
Congressional Republicans want a permanent extension for all Americans, a proposal President Obama opposes because, he says, it would too greatly increase the federal deficit, costing about $700 billion over 10 years. Obama and Democratic lawmakers have rejected a permanent extension for the highest earners.
Negotiations appear to be centered on the possibility of extending all the tax cuts temporarily.
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