Thursday, November 29, 2007
The Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County fell 1.2 percent in October, the third significant decline in a row. University of San Diego economist Alan Gin compiles the forecast. The forecast for the San Diego County economy has been in negative territory for 18 of the past 19 months.
Gin says the decline was led by sharp drops in building permits, consumer confidence, help-wanted advertising and the outlook in the national economy, coupled with a rise in the number of initial claims for unemployment insurance. He says the outlook for the local economy remains unchanged, with weak growth and continued pressure on the housing market through at least the first half of next year.
A recession in the local economy is possible, but not likely as San Diego has few of the industries that are severely impacted by the economic downtown, such as automobile and steel production, he said.
Gin said the flow of dollars into San Diego's economy from defense and tourism spending also helps stave off a local recession.