Leading Indicators Shine Brightly On San Diego’s Economic Future
Tuesday, May 31, 2011
San Diego's economic outlook is mostly positive for the second half of the year. The San Diego Index of Leading Economic Indicators jumped almost one full percent in April.
SAN DIEGO The index has avoided negative territory for 25 months. The past four months have each had a substantial gain and that's good news for the local economy.
University of San Diego economist Alan Gin compiled the six indicators. A surge in building permits led the numbers, as developers looked to construct mutli-family housing units. The job market also performed well.
"The latest report was not great in terms of the number of jobs generated," said Gin. "But at least the unemployment rate is now down below 10 percent. It had been above 10 percent almost two years.
Unemployment claims are just one measuring stick. The index also tracks help wanted advertising.
"Help wanted advertising has increased to its highest point since November of 2008," said Gin. "So that's an indication that businesses are at least thinking about hiring people. They're placing ads on line to try to fill jobs."
San Diego's economic future is far from certain. The outlook for the national economy fell in April for the first time in 10 months. If the national economy struggles, that could also slow the economic recovery in San Diego.