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2014 Forecast For San Diego’s Housing Market

Evening Edition

Above: Good news and bad news seemed to go hand in hand for San Diego's housing market this year. We'll hear what may be in store for local real estate in 2014.

Aired 12/17/13 on KPBS Midday Edition.

GUESTS:

Alan Nevin, real estate economist and director of economic and market research for the Xpera Group, a company of construction consultants

Alan Gin, professor of economics at the University of San Diego, and author of USD's Index of Leading Economic Indicators

Transcript

The real estate bubble is widely accepted as one of the major causes of the Great Recession. For the past five years, people have been looking to real estate as a bellwether of the nation's recovery, but looking for definite trends has proved elusive.

There's no doubt real estate values are in much better shape than they've been in years. According to the latest housing market report from San Diego-based Dataquick, in San Diego County, the median home price last month was $415,000. That's up almost 16 percent from November 2012.

California's foreclosures rate is down 60 percent from last year according to a report out today from the Public Policy Institute of California.

But full recovery has not taken place, and it's been hard to predict when it will.

Also in the mix: whether interest rates will remain at record lows, if the job market will continue to improve and if consumer confidence will continue to strengthen the housing market.

Alan Nevin, a real estate economist with the Xpera Group said, "If you want the economy to recover, you start making it easier for builders to build homes."

But Nevin said we are nowhere near building the 10,000 new housing units each year that would signal a full recovery from the recession.

"When we had a boom, we had 90,000 construction jobs. Now we're down to 50,000. That was an enormous revenue stream to the county," he said.

Nevin said a healthy new home construction market has a large multiplier effect on a region's economy: for every $1 spent on new home construction, $2 goes back into the region's economy.

Comments

Avatar for user 'pw'

pw | December 17, 2013 at 12:40 p.m. ― 1 year ago

Yes is the water go to come from???
I have drop my water usage by 80% and then they need the same money so up up goes the water bill

No new homes until they have new water source that won’t increase my water bill

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Avatar for user 'bentonmadisn'

bentonmadisn | December 20, 2013 at 12:14 a.m. ― 1 year ago

Truly shows that 2014 would be another growth year but the growth percentage would be same or less as the current year though this would make or break the real estate market but consumers and construction companies which are all time low now. Positive change in the real estate market would only occur if the interest rate only when interest rate do not go in upward direction and if government create some reforms for real estate business which would strengthen itself in coming years.
homes for sale Georgetown ky

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Avatar for user 'rebroker'

rebroker | January 16, 2014 at 11:06 a.m. ― 11 months, 1 week ago

Real estate brokers are the front-line for any real estate market. To view the opinion of a San Diego real estate broker on the 2014 San Diego real estate market use this link:
http://www.brokerforyou.com/brokerforyou/2014-san-diego-real-estate-market-forecast.html

You may have to cut/paste the link into your browser. Also, you can just visit:
http://www.brokerforyou.com/brokerforyou/ and view the 1/5/2014 post.

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Avatar for user 'sam4greenhousegroup'

sam4greenhousegroup | January 31, 2014 at 1:05 p.m. ― 10 months, 4 weeks ago

This comment was removed by the site staff for violation of the usage agreement.

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Avatar for user 'RealPeopleRealProperty'

RealPeopleRealProperty | February 12, 2014 at 8:13 a.m. ― 10 months, 2 weeks ago

Thank you for your post. I really appreciate your intention to inform us and to share your knowledge.

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Avatar for user 'JeanMarc'

JeanMarc | February 12, 2014 at 10:19 a.m. ― 10 months, 2 weeks ago

The real estate agent model is going out of style. In this modern age of the internet their profession is no longer needed. All realtor does is tell you "Oh yes! Now is a great time to buy (or sell)"!

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