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Poll Shows Kevin Faulconer Is Front Runner In San Diego Mayoral Race

City Councilman Kevin Faulconer talks to neighborhood activist Dwayne Crensha...

Photo by Claire Trageser

Above: City Councilman Kevin Faulconer talks to neighborhood activist Dwayne Crenshaw at Faulconer's mayoral campaign kickoff.

San Diego City Councilman Kevin Faulconer is now leading the pack in the race to be San Diego's next mayor. According to the latest U-T San Diego/10News poll, Faulconer has gained a double-digit lead over the former front-runner Qualcomm Executive Nathan Fletcher.

In the latest U-T San Diego/10News poll, Councilman Kevin Faulconer has gained a double-digit lead over the previous front-runner Nathan Fletcher.

Special Feature Special Election

Faulconer placed first with 41 percent of the vote, followed Nathan Fletcher with 28 percent.

In the six weeks since the last poll was released, Faulconer has seen a 17-point swing in support. Faulconer saw the biggest surge in Latino support, which tripled between the two polls. He also saw a significant growth in support among Asians, women and moderate constituents.

Although leading the money race, councilman David Alvarez appears to be stuck in third with 17 percent of the vote. Former City Attorney Mike Aguirre is in fourth with seven percent.

San Diego State University political scientist Brian Adams said variation among polls in local races exists because of unknowns.

“In a special election like this, it is really hard to make a prediction as to what turnout will be and what the pool of likely voters are and because of that it becomes very difficult to assign weight in your polls," Adams said.

Adams says polls in national races where numerous surveys are able to identify who will vote and predict turnout.

With the Nov. 19 election date rapidly approaching, candidates are facing off in a quick turnaround race that is likely to have low-voter turnout.

The 10News/U-T San Diego poll was conducted from Oct. 28-31 by SurveyUSA and interviewed 700 city of San Diego adults registered to vote. The margin of sampling error ranged from +/- 4.2 to 4.3 percent on the questions.

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