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Poll Shows Kevin Faulconer Is Front Runner In San Diego Mayoral Race

Above: City Councilman Kevin Faulconer talks to neighborhood activist Dwayne Crenshaw at Faulconer's mayoral campaign kickoff.

San Diego City Councilman Kevin Faulconer is now leading the pack in the race to be San Diego's next mayor. According to the latest U-T San Diego/10News poll, Faulconer has gained a double-digit lead over the former front-runner Qualcomm Executive Nathan Fletcher.

Aired 11/4/13 on KPBS News.

In the latest U-T San Diego/10News poll, Councilman Kevin Faulconer has gained a double-digit lead over the previous front-runner Nathan Fletcher.

Special Feature Special Election

Faulconer placed first with 41 percent of the vote, followed Nathan Fletcher with 28 percent.

In the six weeks since the last poll was released, Faulconer has seen a 17-point swing in support. Faulconer saw the biggest surge in Latino support, which tripled between the two polls. He also saw a significant growth in support among Asians, women and moderate constituents.

Although leading the money race, councilman David Alvarez appears to be stuck in third with 17 percent of the vote. Former City Attorney Mike Aguirre is in fourth with seven percent.

San Diego State University political scientist Brian Adams said variation among polls in local races exists because of unknowns.

“In a special election like this, it is really hard to make a prediction as to what turnout will be and what the pool of likely voters are and because of that it becomes very difficult to assign weight in your polls," Adams said.

Adams says polls in national races where numerous surveys are able to identify who will vote and predict turnout.

With the Nov. 19 election date rapidly approaching, candidates are facing off in a quick turnaround race that is likely to have low-voter turnout.

The 10News/U-T San Diego poll was conducted from Oct. 28-31 by SurveyUSA and interviewed 700 city of San Diego adults registered to vote. The margin of sampling error ranged from +/- 4.2 to 4.3 percent on the questions.

Comments

Avatar for user 'dlwintermia'

dlwintermia | November 4, 2013 at 10:10 a.m. ― 5 months, 2 weeks ago

There's something about Nathan Fletcher that gives me the creeps. I'm sorry, but I can't seem to bring myself to trust a man that has changed his position so many times. Also, little things like his voting history while he was running for public office. While running for a new office, he completely ignored the office that he held. If missing the votes is miss-stated at 74%, then what is the correct figure? He pulls endorsements out of his hat like rabbits, but then how many hats does he have and how many different kinds of rabbits live in these hats?

He also seems to miss a lot of important venues, where he might be able to clarify some of his spotty history. How does he or maybe I should say who decides what he should go to and what he can afford to miss? At the end of the day, I always have more questions about Mr. Fletcher than I have answers for previous questions. He does keep you on your toes while you are trying to understand him.

Perhaps what he needs to do is get a job, keep it for a decent length of time and build a history that you can believe in. Frankly, I wouldn't even hire him for a job let alone elect him to an important public office. In my mind, I see a man who is always campaigning for the next position, but fails to perform well in the one that he holds.

After the recent debacle in San Diego, do we need another one right behind the one we still haven't really cleaned up? Obviously we made a mistake trusting the "professional" women who so wholeheartedly endorsed our former major, then turned around and accused him of behaving unprofessionally just a few months later. It's difficult to keep all of the stories straight in San Diego county. However, I'd like to make my decisions one at a time. My first one then is to find a mayoral candidate that I can trust. Any ideas?

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Avatar for user 'sdreefer21'

sdreefer21 | November 4, 2013 at 2:02 p.m. ― 5 months, 2 weeks ago

700 people is not a very compelling number.

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Avatar for user 'dialyn'

dialyn | November 4, 2013 at 3:01 p.m. ― 5 months, 2 weeks ago

I'd love to know how much in debt to Manchester and people like the Koch brothers does Faulconer find himself. I've really hated the ads I've received from his supporters. I think of all the positive ways money could be spent rather than buying an election. It's most disheartening. And, no, I'm not enthusiastic about Fletcher either.

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Avatar for user 'ConcernedCitizen2'

ConcernedCitizen2 | November 4, 2013 at 9:10 p.m. ― 5 months, 1 week ago

One of Kevin Falconer's neighbors in Point Loma told me that he is "more of a politician than a human being." That's not a ringing endorsement from someone who knows him well. Faulconer is getting his support from the wealthy Republican business community. Take a look at what he has done for the regular Joe, little guy, average citizen while in power on City Council. Not much.

Fletcher served our country and he has the backing of the Qualcomm Jacobs Family who have been very generous and gracious in the community.

Alvarez is genuine and wants to help the overlooked and underserved communities that are suffering. It's not clear if he has the experience to lead the entire City.

Fletcher looks like the most reasonable and experienced of the bunch, with down the middle values.

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Avatar for user 'jjking20000101'

jjking20000101 | November 4, 2013 at 9:33 p.m. ― 5 months, 1 week ago

dlwintermia:

We are all human. I understand that you have your views on issues. Other people also have their views on issues. Nothing is wrong about this.

But this is exactly what is wrong when politics are involved. People cling too strongly to ideologies as opposed to pragmatically doing what is best to the ordinary people, be it businessmen, white collar workers, blue collar workers, or even the unemployed and homeless. We are a country composed of people with differing ideals and needs. Only when we are all taken care of are we truly a nation united under God indivisible.

Nathan Fletcher is human. His views when he was under 18 years of age might be vastly different from those when he joined the military, after her left the military, when he was in the State Assembly, when he was single, after he married, after he had kids, when his kids are in college, when he is retired, etc. He might become a great mayor of San Diego.

Would you have predicted if Carl Demaio or Bob Filner would be a good mayor around this time last year?

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Avatar for user 'mjprig'

mjprig | November 5, 2013 at 11:03 a.m. ― 5 months, 1 week ago

Fletcher's campaign has been beyond disingenuous. I get fliers from him pretty much every day. One last week actually smeared Alvarez as the faux Democrat, propped up by right-wing republicans. I am voting against Fletcher more than for anyone else.

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Avatar for user 'CaliforniaDefender'

CaliforniaDefender | November 5, 2013 at 2:33 p.m. ― 5 months, 1 week ago

Interesting that Alvarez is polling so low. Perhaps San Diegans have had enough of the Democratic Party for a while as the stench of Filner still lingers in the air.

I'd prefer a third party candidate win, but at this point I think it is better if Faulconer gets over 50% of the vote to avoid a runoff. We need stability and to get back to business now.

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Avatar for user 'rebecca95'

rebecca95 | November 5, 2013 at 5:19 p.m. ― 5 months, 1 week ago

Kevin Faulconer is actively working to eliminate marine trade businesses and jobs from the Shelter Island basin. He wants to see Shelter Island become like Seaport Village, by moving the boat yards to south bay. Check his voting record on eliminating land designated for marine recreational use, for high-end residential townhomes. Specifically the block bounded by Scott, Dickens & Carleton streets. 10 business had to move out so that 47 condos can be built. Faulconer has his hands in developers' pockets, and he wants to help them "gentrify" all of Point Loma. The marine trades supporting and benefiting from those boat yards are in the 100s within a 6 block radius.

Faulconer goes where the money pays him to go. Fletcher is the moderate that represents everyone, and he had the guts to change parties.

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Avatar for user 'ePoliticalUSA'

ePoliticalUSA | November 5, 2013 at 6:07 p.m. ― 5 months, 1 week ago

Another poll another result no 2 seem to have the same results. Our poll of mostly Facebook users has the opposite result. Alvarez on top Faulconer on the bottom. Although Faulconer lead at one time it would appear his supporter either dont use FaceBook or hav abandoned him. Last week all campaigns rang out tweets to take the poll and Alvarez and Aguirre supporters resonded. Flethcer and Faulconer supporter on the other had were dismal. What is your opinion? http://epoliticalus.wordpress.com/2013/10/17/who-is-the-next-mayor-of-san-diego-poll/

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Avatar for user 'Peking_Duck_SD'

Peking_Duck_SD | November 5, 2013 at 9:58 p.m. ― 5 months, 1 week ago

Mjprig, what are you smoking??

My mailbox has been CLOGGED FOR WEEKS with all kinds of pro-Faulconer propaganda, much of it attacking Fletcher.

I have issues with Fletcher, but I will vote for him if it comes down to him and Faulconer.

I've also noticed Faulconer seems to be the sweetheart of the downtown developers crowd.

All the big construction sites downtown have his signs up, placed there by the fat-cat real estate moguls.

A vote for Faulconer is a vote for the downtown elite Manchester crowd, certainly not for the people of San Diego

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