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Kevin Faulconer leads David Alvarez in latest poll for San Diego mayoral race

According to the latest 10News/U-T San Diego poll released Sunday morning, Faulconer has the support of 53 percent of likely voters. David Alvarez has 37 percent.

Those numbers are quite different from a similar 10News/U-T San Diego poll conducted last month. Faulconer is up six points. Alvarez is down nine points. That December poll showed the two councilmen in a dead heat to replace former Mayor Bob Filner. Faulconer had support of 47 percent of likely voters, and Alvarez had 46 percent in the poll conducted by 10News/U-T San Diego pollster SurveyUSA on Dec. 6, 2013.

Regardless of the results of the polls, both candidates told 10News their campaigns are on track.

"I am who I've always been. That's what I'm campaigning as," Alvarez said. "The things I stand for have never changed."

Faulconer told 10News his campaign is working hard to prove he is the right choice.

"We've been up, traveling the city going up and down with our message," he explained.

According to the 10News/U-T San Diego poll, Faulconer's entire advantage comes from voters who live north of Interstate 8. Faulconer has a two-to-one advantage over Alvarez in the northern part of the city. Faulconer and Alvarez are tied among voters who live south of I-8.

The biggest shift in support is among voters who are 35 to 49 years old. In the last 10News/U-T San Diego poll, Alvarez led by 11 points. Now, Alvarez trails by 21, a 32-point swing.

Ultimately, the numbers on Election Day are the only ones that count. To win, both candidates told 10News it will take a lot of hard work.

"It means being open and direct with voters about the challenges we face," Faulconer said. 

Alvarez has a similar strategy.

"We're going to make sure people turn out to vote, and we'll be successful," he said.

Election Day is Feb. 11.

Comments

Avatar for user 'mySDvoice'

mySDvoice | January 13, 2014 at 8:21 a.m. ― 7 months, 1 week ago

The key to this poll is the statement 'likely voters'. Alvarez's primary supporters live south of 8, but show up to vote in much smaller percentages compared to the Faulconer's supporters living north of 8. The Alvarez campaign needs to work on voter turnout to have any chance at winning.

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Avatar for user 'Peking_Duck_SD'

Peking_Duck_SD | January 13, 2014 at 4:47 p.m. ― 7 months, 1 week ago

I'm skeptical of this poll.

First off, haven't both the UT and 10 News endorsed Faulconer ?

They both were for DeMaio, in a blatantly obvious and unprofessional way.

Second, this is a HUGE shift, showing Faulconer up dramatically and Alvarez down dramatically in just a month.

Usually huge swings like this happen after a scandal, or a major event like a public debate where someone bombs it.

I really don't see how there could be this monumental of a shift so quickly when nothing has even been happening with the campaigns.

It's no secret the Republicans would do anything to win this race.

This is a national political story because all of America's large cities are governed by Democratic mayors.

The largest city in the country to have a Republican mayor right now is Indianapolis.

Republican Bosses well beyond our city's borders want this to be San Diego, one of the nation's top ten largest cities.

Based on the UT owner's past inappropriate behavior and jaundiced journalism tactics, I have not doubt in the world he would cook poll numbers if he thought it would help Republicans clench on to power in San Diego

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Avatar for user 'PeopleWatcher'

PeopleWatcher | January 13, 2014 at 5:17 p.m. ― 7 months, 1 week ago

Either KPBS should stop quoting the UT's polls, OR you must remind people that the UT has a history of polling Republicans and presenting the results as meaning something that they do not. Every time you quote the UT, KPBS loses credibility. Even Republicans know these polls are a waste of money and meaningless -- unless you think lying and misleading the politically uninformed is valid media activity.
.

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Avatar for user 'FreedomPlsOrg'

FreedomPlsOrg | January 13, 2014 at 10:32 p.m. ― 7 months, 1 week ago

Yeah, UT is republican owned, controlled, and now a monopoly "for the greatest nation in the world and it finest city, to self promote business!!!" moto is suck all the money we can from you and GIVE you the TRUTH we want to!!!- Papa Doug!!!

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