STEVE INSKEEP, host:
Negotiators within Somalia itself resumed peace talks over the weekend. On one side is the Islamic militia that controls the capital, Mogadishu. On the other side is Somalia's transitional government, which the United Nations backs. There's been no effective central government for 15 years.
We're going to go now to Jonathan Ledgard, correspondent for The Economist, who's covering this story. Welcome to the program.
Mr. JONATHAN LEDGARD (Correspondent, The Economist): Thanks so much for having me.
INSKEEP: Any hope that these talks could succeed?
Mr. LEDGARD: It's possible, but I think it's fairly unlikely for several reasons. The main being, fundamentally, that the two sides don't look like they have any common ground.
INSKEEP: Don't look like they have any common ground? What do you mean?
Mr. LEDGARD: I mean that in Mogadishu, we have an Islamist faction which has a very clear agenda, which is to create an Islamic emerit for Somalia and even for greater Somalia that would include parts of Ethiopia and Kenya. And on the other side we have a secular government, many of whom were involved in the previous Marxist regime - some of whom, including the leadership supported by Ethiopia. Ethiopia is the number one enemy of the Islamists. And it's not clear that either side is prepared to compromise on the fundamentals.
INSKEEP: We heard in David McGuffin's report that the Islamist militia says that only it can unify Somalia, which would have to be dismaying news for those who oppose it. But is there any chance that they're right?
Mr. LEDGARD: I think there is. In some respects, what we have is a difficult situation where we have the Islamists, who have pretty (unintelligible). They are quite philanthropic, quite benevolent in many ways - certainly on issues of health care and education, they've done a lot more in a couple of months than the transitional government or the Mogadishu warlords managed in over a decade. On the other hand, within the Islamists, you have some very nasty characters who trained with Osama bin Laden in Afghanistan and who are very closely wed to the al-Qaida agenda.
So it's a bit of a conundrum - particularly for the United States' foreign policy as to whether to embrace the Islamists, because they do offer the best chance of economic development for Somalia - and thus stability in the region -or whether to distance yourself from them. And then you end up with a sort of collapsing state again.
INSKEEP: Has Mogadishu actually become a haven for al-Qaida figures?
Mr. LEDGARD: I know something has been put about a lot, particularly in the American media. I don't think there's that much evidence to suggest that at the moment. I think a lot depends on how the Islamists are treated and which kind of Islamists in the long run win out in influencing the government in Mogadishu.
INSKEEP: Now, Mr. Ledgard, as we wait to see what happens next in this war torn country, we heard in the previous report about a threat from neighboring Ethiopia to invade if things get out of control. Do you have any information about Ethiopian troops already crossing the border into Somalia?
Mr. LEDGARD: Well, I think it's very clear - despite the denials of Ethiopia -that Ethiopian troops are presently inside Somalia in several locations. And indeed, there are Ethiopian troops just positioned outside of the transitional capital of Baidoa, supporting the transitional government. There is no evidence that this is just a major offensive just yet, but Ethiopia clearly wants the Islamists out of Mogadishu and will go to war to see that goal.
INSKEEP: Jonathan Ledgard, thanks very much.
Mr. LEDGARD: Thanks, Steve.
INSKEEP: He's a correspondent for The Economist, and he joined us from Dar es Salaam, the capital of Tanzania. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
