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The immense puzzle that is the Middle East also includes an unsolved crime: the bombing that killed the former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. On March the 1st in the Hague, 11 judges will convene an international tribunal to examine that case. Many Lebanese insist the Syrian leadership was behind the assassination. But Syria, Lebanon's neighbor, denies any role.
From Beirut, NPR's Peter Kenyon reports on the challenges facing the tribunal.
PETER KENYON: As one of the more fought-over places in the Middle East, Beirut has seen its share of explosions. But few had a more profound political impact than the massive suicide car bomb that killed Rafik Hariri and 22 others in a tunnel underneath the Saint Georges Hotel, at a few minutes before 1 p.m. on February 14th, 2005.
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KENYON: Every day at the moment of the blast, flame shoots from a memorial that stands on the spot. The crater left in the ground here mirrored the hole Hariri's death punched in Lebanon's political scene, from which it is still struggling to recover.
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KENYON: Hariri's son Saad was thrust into the spotlight, joining with Jews and Christian leaders to form a coalition that helped drive Syrian troops out of Lebanon after a 29-year stay. At a huge rally marking the fourth anniversary of his father's murder, the biggest cheer Saad Hariri got was when he said, we are at the doorstep of the international tribunal. Before his death, the larger-than-life billionaire politician had broken with the dominant Syrian regime over its heavy-handed manipulations in Lebanon. The initial U.N. investigation pointed dramatically at both Lebanese and Syrian officials. Subsequent investigators have been more circumspect.
But lawmaker and Hariri supporter Mohammed Kabbani says despite the arrest early on of four Lebanese generals, people will never believe that such a sophisticated assassination didn't require the involvement of senior Syrian officials.
Mr. MOHAMMED KABBANI (Lawmaker): The Lebanese people believe that such a big crime done in a very professional way cannot be the work of a low-level, young espionage agent. Such a decision cannot be taken except by big shots.
KENYON: This tribunal is likely to face two kinds of problems: its own limitations and geo-political pressures. It was created by the U.N. Security Council, and features seven international and four Lebanese judges who were not identified out of fear for their safety. Their brief is not the usual array of mass killings and crimes against humanity, but a specific terrorist crime. Lynn Maalouf is a Lebanese consultant with the International Center for Transitional Justice.
She says in addition to having a narrow mandate, the tribunal's investigators will not have the same powers as the current investigators working for the U.N. International Independent Investigative Commission, which Maalouf calls the TripleIC.
Ms. LYNN MAALOUF (Lebanese Consultant, International Center of Transitional Justice): The prosecutor's office is actually is going to have less powers than what the TripleIC. Basically, all states were compelled to cooperate with the TripleIC. The tribunal will not have these powers, so state cooperation is going to be quite problematic.
KENYON: In other words, if Syria, for example, were either to refuse to hand over officials indicted by the tribunal or claim sovereign immunity in the case of high-ranking officials, the tribunal would have little recourse other than going to the Security Council and hoping for sanctions or other pressure. Officials in Damascus are already on record stating that any Syrian suspects would be tried at home.
The other main area of concern is whether the political will exists to hold Syria accountable should its leadership be implicated. In 2005, Syria was very much of a pariah state, condemned by the West and many Arab states, and potentially threatened by a large U.S. military presence just across the border in Iraq.
Four years later, Damascus has held indirect peace talks with Israel, is establishing diplomatic ties with Lebanon, and faces a new American administration that favors dialogue over unilateral force. Analyst Paul Salem, at the Carnegie Middle East Center, says Damascus seems confident it can survive the tribunal.
Dr. PAUL SALEM (Carnegie Middle East Center): And most importantly, I think it's confident that the United States, Europe, Russia, the international community in general does not want regime change in Syria. Unlike the fears in 2005, Syrian knows now that none of the major players want regime change.
KENYON: For these and other reasons, analysts say expectations need to be lowered. Jamil Mroue, editor of the Daily Star Newspaper, says even with its limitations, this tribunal can serve notice that using violence to achieve political results - as he says Syria did for years in Lebanon - does have consequences.
Mr. JAMIL MROUE (Editor, Daily Star Newspaper): The tribunal is to establish that political conduct does not go unobserved. It is not about demonizing the Syrians. The search for absolute justice is the profession of philosophers. This is far more untidy business.
KENYON: Not only untidy, but slow-moving. Speculation is already focusing on whether the tribunal will issue a charge sheet naming defendants before Lebanese elections in June.
Peter Kenyon, NPR News, Beirut. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
