Contrary to what some had feared, it looks like prison realignment has not had a significant impact on arrest rates in San Diego County.
A new study by the San Diego Association of Governments (SANDAG) shows that 12 percent of adult arrests in 2012 involved someone on probation. That's up just two percent from 2008.
The report finds that realigned offenders are not being arrested at higher rates than traditional offenders. In fact, the arrest rate for so-called Mandatory Supervision offenders—those sentenced to serve a prison term in county jail—and the traditional population is identical at 22 percent.
But there's a caveat when it comes to Post-Release Community Supervision (PRCS) offenders, those who served a prison sentence for non-violent, non-serious felonies. They have a much higher re-arrest rate. The re-arrest rate for PRCS offenders while under supervision is 36 percent.
“When we analyzed the data, it was fairly consistent across the board that those assessed as low-risk are least likely to be re-arrested and those assessed as high-risk are most likely to be re-arrested, regardless of whether they are a realigned offender or not,” said Dr. Cynthia Burke, SANDAG Director of Criminal Justice Research.
Prison realignment shifted offenders from the state to the county in 2011 to reduce prison overcrowding.
