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Report: S.D. County Will Fall Short 70,000 Housing Units By 2050

Based on current land use plans, the county of San Diego will fall 70,000 housing units short of demand by 2050, according to a study presented today to the Board of Supervisors.

SANDAG is developing the Series 12: 2050 Regional Growth Forecast for the San Diego region.  This forecast will be SANDAG’s first estimate of population, housing, land use, and economic growth to the end of the TransNet program in 2048.
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Above: SANDAG is developing the Series 12: 2050 Regional Growth Forecast for the San Diego region. This forecast will be SANDAG’s first estimate of population, housing, land use, and economic growth to the end of the TransNet program in 2048.

Based on current land use plans, the county of San Diego will fall 70,000 housing units short of demand by 2050, according to a study presented today to the Board of Supervisors.

The county population will increase from 3.1 million to 4.4 million by 2050, said Beth Jarosz, a demographer with the San Diego Association of Governments.

Such growth will require 500,000 more jobs and 450,000 more housing units, Jarosz said.

However, only 380,000 additional housing units appear possible under current guidelines, she said.

SANDAG officials are working with local jurisdictions to address the shortfall, and most general plans only cover the next 20 years, according to Jarosz.

``Most of the growth will come from people here today,'' Jarosz said, referring to current residents having babies and living longer. Domestic migration is expected to be flat and immigrants from other nations are expected to arrive at a pace of 12,000 to 16,000 annually, she said.

``Unless you're going to go out and campaign against people having babies in San Diego in the future, we're going to have to solve this problem,'' Supervisor Ron Roberts said.

The supervisors said future growth prospects will be constrained by a finite available water supply. Supervisor Bill Horn pointed out that transportation funding has been cut sharply by Sacramento and is likely to be limited for at least the next five years.

The board voted unanimously to work with SANDAG on its 2050 2050 Regional Growth Forecast, which is expected to be complete next February.

Comments

Avatar for user 'RichardRider'

RichardRider | September 24, 2009 at 11:05 a.m. ― 4 years, 10 months ago

The "housing shortage" is an overblown problem. The population projections are bogus -- based on a different era in California. SANDAG and other government agencies overestimate housing needs because it makes their role more important (and financially more secure).

People are looking to LEAVE the state -- especially people who could afford to buy homes. Given our economic situation, that's not going to change for years to come.

Consider California’s net domestic migration (migration between states). From April, 2000 through June, 2008 (8 years, 2 months) California has lost a NET 1.4 million people. The departures slowed this past year only because people couldn’t sell their homes.
www.mdp.state.md.us/msdc/Pop_estimate/Estimate_08/table5.pdf

These are not welfare kings and queens departing. They are the young, the educated, the productive, the ambitious, the wealthy (such as Tiger Woods), and retirees seeking to make their pensions provide more bang for the buck.

The irony is that a disproportionate number of these seniors are retired state and local government employees fleeing the state that provides them with their opulent pensions – in order to avoid the high taxes that these same employees pushed so hard through their unions.

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Avatar for user 'RichardRider'

RichardRider | September 24, 2009 at 11:07 a.m. ― 4 years, 10 months ago

Breaking Bad: California vs. the Other States
by Richard Rider, Chairman, San Diego Tax Fighters
Version 1.491 Revised 19 September, 2009

Here’s a depressing comparison of California taxes and economic climate with the rest of the states. The news is breaking bad, and getting worse (I keep updating this article):

California has the 4th highest state income tax in the nation. 9.55% at $47,055. 10.55% at $1,000,000

By far the highest state sales tax in the nation. 8.25% (not counting local sales taxes)

Corporate income tax rate is the highest in the West (our economic competitors). 8.84%

2009 Business Tax Climate ranks 48th in the nation.
www.taxfoundation.org/research/topic/15.html

Fourth highest capital gains tax 9.55%
www.thereibrain.com/realestate-blog/capital-gains-tax-rates-state-by-state/109/

Highest gasoline tax (averaging 64.5 cents/gallon) in the nation (July, 2009). When gas hits $3.00/gallon, we are numero uno – because unlike many states, we charge sales tax on gasoline purchases (built into the price).
www.api.org/statistics/fueltaxes/

Fourth highest unemployment rate in the nation. (August, 2009) 12.2%. National rate 9.7%.
www.bls.gov/news.release/laus.nr0.htm

One of the highest state vehicle license car taxes. 1.15% per year on value of vehicle, up from 0.65% in 2008.
http://tinyurl.com/lrvmtd

California’s 2009 “Tax Freedom Day” (the day the average taxpayer stops working for government and start working for oneself) is again the 4th worst date in the nation – up from 28th worst in 1994.
www.taxfoundation.org/research/show/387.html

To offset lower state revenues, 29 states are proposing 2009 state tax and fee increases totaling $24 billion. California, with 12% of the nation’s population, is proposing 47% of that increase (6/5/09).
http://money.cnn.com/2009/06/04/news/economy/states_budget_crises/index.htm

1 in 5 in LA County receiving public aid.
www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-welfare22-2009feb22,0,4377048.story

California has 12% of the nation’s population, but 36% of the country’s TANF (“Temporary” Assistance for Needy Families) welfare recipients – more than the next 7 states combined. Unlike other states, this “temporary” assistance becomes much more permanent in CA.
http://weblog.signonsandiego.com/weblogs/afb/archives/034662.html

California prison guards highest paid in the nation.
www.caltax.org/caltaxletter/2008/101708_fraud1.htm

California teachers easily the highest paid in the nation.
www.nea.org/home/29402.htm (CA has the second lowest student test scores)

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Avatar for user 'RichardRider'

RichardRider | September 24, 2009 at 11:09 a.m. ― 4 years, 10 months ago

You want more of this? I've GOT more of this!!

(continued)

California now has the lowest bond ratings of any state, edging out Louisiana.
www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/03/19/BA7F16JLKH.DTL

California ranks 44th worst in “2008 lawsuit climate.”
www.instituteforlegalreform.com/component/ilr_featured_tools/29/item/LAI/19.html

In 2005 (latest figures), for every dollar Californians sent to D.C. in taxes, we got back 78 cents – 43rd worst.
www.taxfoundation.org/taxdata/show/22685.html

America’s top CEO’s rank California “the worst place in which to do business” for the fourth straight year (3/2009). But here’s the interesting part – they think California is a great state to live (primarily for the great climate) – they just won’t bring their businesses here because of the oppressive tax and regulatory climate.
Consider this quote from the survey (a conclusion reflected in the rankings of the characteristics of the state): “California has huge advantages with its size, quality of work force, particularly in high tech, as well as the quality of life and climate advantages of the state. However, it is an absolute regulatory and tax disaster.”
http://tinyurl.com/cyvufy

California, a destitute state, still gives away college education at fire sale prices. Our community college tuition is by far the lowest in the nation. How low? Nationwide, the average community college tuition is 4.5 times higher than California CC’s. This ridiculously low tuition devalues education to students – resulting in a 30+% drop rate for class completion. In addition, 2/3 of California CC students pay no tuition at all – filling out a simple unverified “hardship” form that exempts them from any tuition payment, or receiving grants and tax credits for their full tuition.
www.sacbee.com/static/weblogs/capitolalertlatest/020722.html
www3.signonsandiego.com/stories/2009/jun/29/1n29fees225829-two-year-colleges-fees-likely-rise-/

On top of that, California offers thousands of absolutely free adult continuing education classes – a sop to the upper middle class. In San Diego, over 1,400 classes for everything from baking pastries to ballroom dancing are offered totally at taxpayer expense.
www.sdce.edu

California residential electricity costs an average of 35.4% more than the national average. For industrial use, CA electricity is 56.2% higher than the national average (2007).
www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/epa/fig7p5.html
www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/epm/table5_6_a.html

It costs 38% more to build solar panels in California than in Tennessee – which is why European corporations have invested $2.3 billion in two Tennessee manufacturing plants to build solar panels for our state.
http://tinyurl.com/llussb

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Avatar for user 'RichardRider'

RichardRider | September 24, 2009 at 11:10 a.m. ― 4 years, 10 months ago

Conclusion:

As taxes rise and jobs disappear, we lose our tax base, continuing California’s state and local fiscal death spiral. This spiral must stop NOW.

NOTE: If you would like to receive my free periodic “Richard Rider Rant” e-newsletter with more of this type of information and analysis, just drop me an email at RRider@san.rr.com. To see the latest version of this “Breaking Bad” column, plus samples of my free “Richard Rider Rant” e-newsletter, go to my blog at www.open.salon.com/blog/richard_rider. This report also is available as a 2 page Word file for formatted printing.

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