It has been more than a year since Fidel Castro handed over power to his brother Raul. A mass exodus of Cuban refugees has not materialized, but the U.S. government is preparing for just such an emergency. It even has stepped up efforts to catch Cuban migrants before they set foot on American soil.
Nearly 20,000 Cubans have arrived in the United States since October by air, land or sea — an increase from the previous year.
Andy Gomez, who studies Cuban migration patterns at the University of Miami, says that the method of entry to the United States is changing. The Coast Guard still intercepts plenty of rafts and overloaded fishing boats, but increasingly it is chasing high-speed boats operated by smugglers. Gomez says the smugglers charge Cubans anywhere from $8,000 to $12,000 for their ride to the United States.
Gomez and others who track Cuban migration warn that a mass exodus of Cubans is still possible, and even likely, once Fidel Castro dies.
The Coast Guard, state and local authorities are making plans to deal with an influx of refugees that some fear could exceed the 125,000 that came to Florida in 1980 as part of the Mariel boatlift.
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