President Obama in his speech Wednesday night said the strategy the U.S. would pursue against the Islamic State group in Iraq and Syria would be similar to how it targeted al-Qaida affiliates in Yemen and Somalia.
"This strategy of taking out terrorists who threaten us, while supporting partners on the front lines, is one that we have successfully pursued in Yemen and Somalia for years," Obama said. "And it is consistent with the approach I outlined earlier this year: to use force against anyone who threatens America's core interests, but to mobilize partners wherever possible to address broader challenges to international order."
In Yemen, the U.S. has conducted more than 100 airstrikes since 2002, killing at least 486 militants and 105 civilians, according to a database maintained by the Long War Journal. It also pursues what one senior administration official called "direct action" against al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula, the al-Qaida affiliate in the country.
In Somalia, the strikes have been fewer, but have succeeded in killing key militant leaders, including last week Ahmed Abdi Godane, the head of al-Shabab, al-Qaida's franchise in Somalia.
A senior administration official told reporters U.S. the strategy against the Islamic State "is going to look like the type of counterterrorism campaign that we waged against different al-Qaida affiliates."
"I think that there is a rhythm that people are accustomed to in Yemen and Somalia, where we are providing support to security forces on the ground and we are taking airstrikes as necessary," the official said.
But how effective has U.S. strategy in Somalia and Yemen been?
Both countries remain deeply unstable despite years of U.S. involvement. As New York Times columnist Nicholas Kristof said, "Obama may be the only person in the world who would cite conflict-torn Yemen and Somalia as triumphs."
Yemen
Gregory Johnsen, author of The Last Refuge: Yemen, al-Qaeda and America's War in Arabia, tells NPR's Robert Siegel that despite U.S. operations in Yemen al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula has only grown in size.
"The problem however is that in Yemen at least the U.S. has confused killing with winning," Johnsen says.
Indeed, the State Department, in its most recent worldwide terrorism report, said, "Of the AQ affiliates, AQAP continues to pose the most significant threat to the United States and U.S. citizens and interests in Yemen."
The State Department report added that the Yemeni government struggled in its effort against the group "due to an ongoing political and security restructuring within the government itself. AQAP continued to exhibit its capability by targeting government installations and security and intelligence officials, but also struck at soft targets, such as hospitals."
Bill Roggio, editor of the Long War Journal, says al-Qaida's affiliate in Yemen "continued to gain territory in the country."
"It's not enough," Roggio says of the U.S. effort there.
Somalia
The State Department, in its report, also called al-Shabab, the group that carried out the attack on the Westgate Mall in Nairobi, Kenya, "the primary terrorist threat" in Africa.
The report said that while Somali security forces combined with African Union troops made gains against the group, "an inability to undertake consistent offensive operations against the group allowed al-Shabab to develop and carry out asymmetric attacks, including outside of Somalia."
Using Yemen and Somalia — despite their instability — as successful examples for the strategy against the Islamic State poses a problem, Roggio says.
"Yemen and Somalia both have governments willing to work with us," he says, adding that's questionable in Iraq because of Iran's influence, and not true of Syria where the U.S. wants President Bashar Assad to go.
And, he adds, Obama has committed to a counterterrorism strategy against an insurgent threat.
"Counterinsurgency requires troops on the ground," Roggio says. "The administration is not willing to do that."
Administration's Position
Susan Rice, President Obama's national security adviser, tells NPR's Steve Inskeep Somalia and Yemen are successful models not because they are successful states, but "it is fair to say that we haven't been attacked directly out of Somalia or Yemen in several years.
"I will knock on wood as I say that. But it is a fact that cooperating with Yemenis cooperating, with Somalis and the African Union we have been able to contain and roll back the terrorist threat in both those countries and to do so with partners on the ground and U.S. air power."
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