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Is The U.S. Finally Winning The War In Iraq?

By Linton Weeks

Published October 14, 2008 at 9:01 PM PDT

This story was published more than 16 years ago.

Iraqi police commandos stand guard following the groundbreaking ceremony of the Baghdad airport road improvement project on July 5. The airport road was once one of the most dangerous in Baghdad, but violence started to ebb following a U.S. troop surge.

Nearly everyone agrees that the surge — or some confluence of events — has improved security in Iraq. But the idea that the United States is winning the war is debatable. And that's precisely the issue that a quartet of interested parties took on recently in New York City: They argued the proposition "America Is Finally Winning the War in Iraq."

Part of the ongoing Intelligence Squared U.S. series, the debate was held at the Rockefeller University in New York. The series, modeled after a program begun in London in 2002, pits experts on either side of an issue against each other in an Oxford-style debate.

Built into the process is a chance for the audience to vote on the motion before and after the debate. (Spoiler alert: At the onset of the Oct. 7 debate, 20 percent were for the motion, "America Is Finally Winning the War in Iraq," and 54 percent against. After the event, 36 percent believed that the U.S. is winning the Iraq war and 53 percent did not.)

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The very idea raises certain questions, Intelligence Squared U.S. Chairman Robert Rosenkranz pointed out at the beginning of the evening. For instance: What does it mean to be "winning" the war in Iraq? At a minimum, Rosenkranz said, when the U.S. leaves the country there cannot be sectarian violence or a civil war. In the wake of the war, Iraq must have a "reasonably decent society, a reasonably representative government" for the U.S. to declare success.

For strategic reasons, to "win" also would be to ensure that Iraq is friendly toward the U.S. — for our national interest in energy and military staging possibilities. And there would be strategic regional considerations to take into account. "We'd like to be able to manage Kurdish aspirations without doing violence to our ongoing relationship with Turkey," Rosenkranz said. And "we'd like to be able to manage Shia aspirations without handing Iran even more influence in the region than it already has."

The debate was moderated by John Donvan, a correspondent for ABC News. Here are some highlights: