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Analysis: Pakistan Politics In Wake Of Attacks

STEVE INSKEEP, Host:

And we're going to talk about all this with Rashed Rahman. He's a journalist and analyst in Lahore. Welcome back to the program, sir.

RASHED RAHMAN: Thank you very much.

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INSKEEP: It sounds like rather than waiting for that military offensive, the militants struck first.

RAHMAN: Yeah, there are two views on that. One view is that they're trying to distract the military. And the other view is that, you know, this is probably the worst time to start an offensive in South Waziristan because of the onset of winter. So that view holds that perhaps they're trying to provoke the offensive right now on their terms that will be much more favorable to them weather-wise.

INSKEEP: In other words, almost daring the Pakistani military to come after them where they think they're strongest.

RAHMAN: I think the word I want is provoking.

INSKEEP: Provoking. And they certainly have been provocative. Of course, yesterday's bombing in Peshawar, sad to say, that's near the tribal areas that have been difficult to control. It's an area where there have been bombings before. But the attack on military headquarters in Rawalpindi, that's pretty striking.

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RAHMAN: Well, that was the most audacious attack so far. They've been striking relatively soft targets until now. General headquarters of the military was considered a very, very difficult target to reach, let alone cause, you know, harm or injury.

INSKEEP: What has all of this action done to the public opinion of the Pakistani military and public confidence in the Pakistani military?

RAHMAN: That image, I'm sure, has been dented to some extent by the fact that their very nerve center can be hit in this manner. So, on the whole, it doesn't portray the image of a very alert military, if you know what I'm trying to say.

INSKEEP: And what does it do to the image of the civilian government that is, at least in principle, in law, in charge of the military and in charge of the campaign against the militants?

RAHMAN: Well, you know, in theory, that is all absolutely correct, but we know that in this case, in a sense, the tail always wags the dog. It's the military which is handling this, of course, with support and help from the civilian government. The actual operational detail, the strategy, the tactics and so on are largely left to the military itself.

INSKEEP: Well, as the Pakistani military prepares for this offensive in Waziristan, near the border with Afghanistan, how helpful, if at all, has the United States been in all of this?

RAHMAN: Well, you know, the United States, no matter how well-intentioned it may be, has a very bad image here in Pakistan. There's a lot of baggage from history. As you may have read and heard, the controversy on the Kerry-Lugar bill is an indicator of how deep feelings run here.

INSKEEP: I just want to make sure that this is understood for an American audience. You referred to the Kerry-Lugar bill. That was a measure providing billions of dollars in aid over several years to Pakistan, and the idea was to support Pakistan's civilian democratic institutions and provide a longer term commitment to Pakistan. It was intended, I believe, as a gesture of friendship, but you're saying it has been received as precisely the opposite.

RAHMAN: All this has rankled badly with the security establishment and the military. And in my view, at least, there has been an orchestrated through the media and via the opposition in parliament to paint the Kerry-Luger bill not in helpful or friendly colors, but as one more example of American bullying, interference and encroachment on our sovereignty.

INSKEEP: Rashed Rahman is a journalist and political analyst in Lahore, Pakistan. Thanks very much.

RAHMAN: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.