Came Tom Fudge and you're listening to Midday Edition on KPBS. Thank you for joining us this afternoon. Worktop story and midday, weather forecasters had predicted a Godzilla El Niño this year. Where is it? This February has been the warmest February on record, and El Niño rains have gone on vacation. Can mimic a come back in March and stop the consecutive years of drought in California? Joining us to talk about this subject are Alex Tardy and David Wagner. Alex is a meteorologist with the National Weather Service Bureau, and Alex good to see you again. Think you for having me. David Wagner is the KPBS science reporter. He has been tracking the drought. David, thank you. Good to be here. Alex, we keep hearing about El Niño is weakening the is it weakening is that would explains the lack of rain this February? Tom, looking at her window here in Southern California, the answer would be yes, but scientifically and technically El Niño is as strong as it has been all year. We have to remember it's the tropical ocean conditions, and that's where we measuring. In magnitude remains a very strong El Niño. But we are not seeing the impacts we normally expect. So a weaker El Niño means difference in ocean temperatures and that's not what were seeing? Yes we can base it on the ocean in ocean temperatures at least in the El Niño region. There other things going on in the Pacific Ocean beside the fact that the Pacific Ocean is the warmest we've ever seen across the entire basin. Using differences from the sure Laster more than just not seeing rain, but believe it or not you it's driving the extreme -- storms north of Hawaii. But the storms are missing a singling to the north. Where they missing us? A We're looking at different reasons and trying to figure out. But one of the biggest culprits is the warm waters are not as far east up to South America like we normally expect. And that prevents or create a more of what we call a higher pressure or double -- Delmo -- dome affect. It has been dry. Back in the years of drought, we used to talk about the ridiculously resilient Ridge do I have that right? You have that right. I don't know if it's an official phrase, you do have it right. And that Ridge, atmospheric Ridge has returned, and that is what is causing the El Niño storms do not reach us, to a have that right You are correct in general. That Ridge of high pressure basically jocks -- blocks are jet stream. The difference with the drought, we have big and large storms in the Pacific and that is evident by the swells we've been getting. But they have not been making it East. Not only do we have the Ridge they are talking about blocking the storms, we have the storms as well. And that is amplifying the Ridge itself. Things just are not moving along like we expected. The pattern is blocked. There is a time when Northern California was getting storms and we want. But I think they've been dry up there as well You are absolutely right. It is not only safe to assume that someone is getting the rain. The rain has been so far away that I -- even Northern California has been warm and dry. There is some good news and horizon potentially for March. In terms of our snowpack it is a little above average in California right now. But it is still starting to melt prematurely. But indications do you have that March might be different? We look at a few things other than just hope. We've got historically, March has been one of our wettest month on record on any year. And especially I El Niño year like 1983. In 1998 and a few other years like 1958. The problem is we actually need to see that in our future computer model forecast. The good news is every day we look at them, and every day it's it dictating that March is not going to be just average but it will be above average. Instead of getting 2 inches of rain, we could get 3 inches or 4 inches. Until it happens, we are having trouble believing it as well. Let me go to David Wagner. David you have been tepee -- keeping tabs on the drought for KPBS. Tell me on the KPBS drought tracker what is it joining us today and how does that compare to a go. Sure. The KPBS drought tracker is an online tool that we've created to look at statewide rainfall and the Sierra snowpack which is a crucial source of water for much of the state. The idea here with this tool is we want to give people a way to quantify how much rain and snow is actually falling in the state with a strong El Niño in effect. So we are looking at the wet season here, it stretches from October to April. And we are getting data on a daily basis from climate researchers at the script research Institute -- they say what we want to see is rain and snow levels hit around 150% of what normally falls in the state by April 1. Meaning that by the time the wet season draws to a close, we want to see rain and snow levels 50% higher than a typical year. At this point, we have a very long way to go to reach that goal. So far this season, we have been seen just about average amounts of rain and snowfall. It is in the average range. Now averages a big improvement over previous years in the drought which were well below average. So far, it's not really been enough to improve drought conditions all that much. Okay. But 150% of precipitation, is that typical of an El Niño year? One thing that the tool does is look back to previous years including 1998, the last major El Niño in California. What we see is depressing. On this day in 1998, rain and snow levels were pretty much already at 150% of normal. So it happens in previous El Niño's. Just not this one. David, if we don't get the rain the Alex is predicting are hoping for next month, what happens then? Is that another year of drought? What very well could happen is if we had 100% exactly on April 1, that means we've had a perfectly typical year. That could mean the drought hasn't necessarily gotten worse, but it has not gotten better either. Alex, the me ask you whether models -- the models for weather for April and May, could they really late in the game? That is a good question and potential we look at past El Niño's. It's not always the future prediction. We ask ourselves, what to expect from El Niño? Typically what we expect his above average rainfall. 120%, 150% like David was talking. We don't expect to see flooding and historical rainfall even in past El Niño's. 1990 happen to be super when February. March was super wet and 83. El Niño does not know the calendar. The short answer of that question is we could see storms all the way into April and May. But there is no guarantee they are going to bring big amounts that we desperately need. It wouldn't be surprising to see several storms in March and a few in April as well. Last year we saw some in May. But the storms we take it this year were incredible in January. Were running just below average in San Diego. But this month is the whole 180° extreme the other way. This is a crazy question but I received there's answer to it much rainfall does California need or how much rainfall to San Diego need to get out of the drought? Back the -- The drought tracker shows we're at about 80% of the seasonal normal. If we get 20% more over the next month, if it pushes up 20%, then we will have a had a perfectly typical year. As I said before, does not make the drought better, it just doesn't make it worse. We need a heckuva lot. Alex, any last word? Yes when you look at the numbers, we need the snowpack, especially not just rainfall. Our reservoirs are big reservoirs of 30% to 60% of capacity. That is a big improvement. But the snowpack in April is going to be critical. We cannot have these warm temperatures. We need rain and snow. And to check out the latest KPBS trip -- drought tracker numbers, go to kpbs.org/drought tracker. My guess on this first part of Midday Edition have been Alex Tardy, meteorologist with the National Weather Service. Alex, thank you very much. And David Wagner, KPBS science reporter who has been tracking the drought. Thanks to you. Back thank you, Tom. [ Music ] You listening to Midday Edition when the California commission last week top fired its top staffer Charles Lester, the negative reaction was fast and strong. In fact 100 -- hundreds of environmentalists came to urge to not fire Lester. There was talk of favoring developers over the environment. Now California assembly speaker Toni Atkins a San Diego Democrat has made -- a bill by Atkins to make it more transparent. Tony thank you very much. Good afternoon, Tom. First contentless which would to change in the way the commission does business. Only introduced a bill AB2002. I call it sunshine. Other lobbyists are already doing business with the state. This is a transparency bill. It's pretty simple. Other lobbyists are all pretty required to do this when they lobby state lawmakers? Correct. So it sounds like you are closing a lobbying loophole that exists in the coastal commission process. Tom, that is exactly right. We have already over 100 numbers in the legislature and the Senate who signed on for this. We think it's really important. And we believe we have the public sentiment behind moving this piece of legislation. What you think this was never required before? That is a good question and one I have not been asked. I don't know. Just didn't get around to it? I don't know I guess not. We see all the time things that need to be corrected and loopholes that need to be close. When it comes to light, we address it. This came to light in the most astounding way. 29,000 California's in emails before the commission all weighed in favor of not losing Charles Lester as the CEO. I think that the time is right for us to close this loophole because I think the public has spoken. You got me to my next subject which was to ask about the firing of Charles Lester. A resort set by that? Here is an individual who has led this organization in a theory objective, fair, manner. And that's what we expect. The coastal commission is charged with one of the most important missions in the state of California, to protect 1100 miles of our coast. And the public cared so much about that that several decades ago they supported the coastal act and creation of the coastal commission to do just that. And there was a pause. Since that time there have been two directors, Peter Douglas and Charles Lester stepped in after him. The whole role of the commission of the director in the staff is to give objective analysis. I think you heard such an outpouring of support from people across the spectrum, from environmental groups for crystal advocates. From developers even. And of course newspaper editorial boards we do know it as well. The media was very present. They think that the system is working. That the analysis, the remote -- reports that come from the commission have been that, fair, many times applications are approved with conditions. So it's a dynamite -- dialogue with communities and developers about how development should occur on our coastline. And it has been working. We don't know by Charles Lester was fired. The decision to fire him was made in closed session. What you think he was fired? I don't know the answer to that. When I look at the work of the commission under Charles Lester's direction, it seemed to be following the mission of the coastal act. I think the issues that were put forward I some of the commissioners during the hearing or management issues. I think so many of us are still scratching our heads. We all have management issues. I have management issues, I have staff issues. I have huge numbers of staff the deal with management issues. The goal -- if the goal is being met, I don't know why you change that. I think that is why people are scratching their heads. They were given permission by attorneys repeatedly that they had the green light to explain the reason for Doctor Lester's firing and the declined to do it. One of the commissioners devoted to fire Lester's was Mark Vargas, your appointee. Impact is to Vargas went all the way to Ireland meet with the edge before voting to approve a very questionable development by that artist. I was very disappointed in this particular vote. There have been a number of votes by any of the commissions that I have appointed over a period of time that I have felt good about, maybe had questions about. But this is the most perplexing. The firing of Mark chart dose Charles Lester is the most perplexing. If you look at the red guard, Lester and his staff has continue to a term -- development has continue to occur. The commission has been very good to the San Diego region in terms of the dialect -- dialogue how the developments will go forward. When I appointed commissioners and I had the opportunity to appoint to cut even though we have a third one from San Diego on the commission that was not my appointment. That was my predecessor's appointment. I did the commissioners, the applicant's to make sure that they understood my concern was the coastal action -- act and coastal act balance. And I like to the direction the commission was going and. So I did the Commissioner applications with that in mind. That is why I was so disappointed with the outcome. We will have to leave it at that. I've been speaking with Alfred yes of the speaker Toni Atkins, San Diego Democrat. She is introducing new legislation to bring more transparency to the lobbying of the California coastal commission. Toni Atkins, thank you very much. Tom, thank you.
State regulators on Thursday will provide their monthly update on how well Californians are conserving water during a historic drought.
The State Water Resources Control Board is set to provide the figures for January, the eighth month of mandatory conservation. Gov. Jerry Brown last year required residents and businesses to use 25 percent less water compared to use in 2013, the year before declaring a drought emergency.
In December, Californians used 18 percent less water, falling short of the target for a third straight month. The state, however, had saved a combined 25.5 percent since June.
California has endured its driest four-year period on record. Early winter El Niño storms, however, blanketed the Sierra Nevada with an above-average snowpack. It has since dipped below normal, according to the state's electronic sensors.
Officials recently extended the conservation order through October, uncertain if the El Niño will ease drought. They said that in April — when the snowpack is typically at its deepest — they could scale back or even end the mandate if storms continue.
The state on Wednesday doubled the amount of water it expects to deliver this year to districts that serve 25 million residents as far south as San Diego and nearly 1 million acres of farmland, with a warning that an extended dry spell could result in cutbacks.
Districts served by the State Water Project will receive 30 percent of their contracted amount, the Department of Water Resources said in a statement. Officials estimated providing 15 percent of contracted amounts in January.
"Today's increase, although good news, does not mean the drought is ending," said agency director Mark Cowin. "After more than four dry years, we still have a critical water shortage. We need a lot more wet weather this winter to take the edge off drought."
