MICHELE NORRIS, host:
In Colombia, the army says guerillas known as the FARC are on the run. That's thanks, in part, to billion of dollars in American aid. Some government officials are predicting a victory in a conflict that goes back decades, but the peasant-based guerillas remain in the countryside, and they promise more trouble for Washington's closest ally in Latin America.
Juan Forero reports.
JUAN FORERO: This stretch of Caribbean coast is marked by oven-hot plains and dusty towns.
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FORERO: This is the music of the region - accordion-laced vianatos(ph). Some say the music speaks to the pain people have suffered, pain from the long guerilla war, one that's cost thousands of lives. On a recent day here in Rio Lacha, the largest town around, senior military commanders are visiting. They've come to talk to local officials. Mayors and small-town dignitaries file into a meeting room. They praise the army for having pushed back the rebels, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC. But they say they're still suffering. Just recently, a train was derailed by the guerillas. Trucks were set on fire. There have been some killings.
Daimar Marin(ph) is a state assemblyman. He says the FARC's days might be numbered, but they're certainly not yet finished.
Mr. DAIMAR MARIN: (Through translator) We can still be cannon fodder. The FARC can come with four guys and take you out of your home and kidnap you.
FORERO: Colombians are used to war. It's touched every part of the country.
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Unidentified Man #1: (Speaking foreign language)
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FORERO: For years, FARC guerillas have destroyed small towns and attacked military posts. They've often videotaped their attacks, as in this relentless assault on the southeastern town of Mitu. But for the first time in years, people are raising the possibility the war could end. In recent weeks, Colombia's army has scored important blows against the FARC. Backed by American money, training and intelligence, the army killed two commanders of the group's ruling directorate in March. And then last month, the rebels announced that their legendary leader, Manuel Marulanda, had died.
Unidentified Man #2: (Speaking Spanish)
FORERO: Marulanda had been fighting the state for 60 years, predating the creation of the FARC. In an interview with NPR, Defense Minister Juan Manuel Santos said the army is aggressively searching for other FARC commanders.
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FORERO: A modern fleet of helicopters and fighter planes regularly pound FARC units, which are mostly found in the south.
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FORERO: And rebel radio signals like this one are increasingly intercepted. Intelligence officers are also extracting crucial information from hundreds of FARC deserters. Santos said the idea is to weaken the FARC so much that its leaders will negotiate with President Alvaro Uribe's government.
Mr. JUAN MANUEL SANTOS (Colombian Defense Minister): They are continuing to say that with President Uribe they will not negotiate. Well, then they're going to have to suffer the military pressure that is increasing every day.
FORERO: Santos says he expects the guerillas to continue with acts of terror. The group has lost seasoned veterans, but it's big, with perhaps 10,000 fighters. But it's rare to hear such admissions by the army. Clearly, the latest blows against the FARC have the generals feeling giddy. General Mario Montoya commands the army.
General MARIO MONTOYA (Colombian National Army): (Through translator) We are rapidly reaching the breaking point, which we can reach in one or two years.
FORERO: Moritz Akerman is one of Colombia's most astute observers of the conflict. He was once in the Communist Party and was close to Alfonso Cano, now the FARC's supreme commander. He agrees the army has the upper hand.
Mr. MORITZ AKERMAN: (Through translator) I think all guerilla groups in these conditions can be defeated, and I think the FARC can be defeated.
FORERO: But he warns that achieving peace through war could still be long and costly.
Juan Forero, NPR News, Riohacha, Colombia. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
