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Report Points To Economic Impact Of San Diego County's Housing Crisis

The Civita housing development in San Diego, June 30, 2017.
Nicholas McVicker
The Civita housing development in San Diego, June 30, 2017.
Report Points To Economic Impact Of San Diego County's Housing Crisis
Report Points To Economic Impact Of San Diego County's Housing Crisis GUESTS: Gary London, senior principal, London Moeder Advisors

>>> An analysis of San Diego County housing crisis finds that the lack of affordable housing is beginning to affect the economy. A commission by the San Diego regional Chamber of Commerce is a follow-up to one conducted in 2016. According to the numbers in the report, the region is not meeting housing goals and not building the types of housing that will satisfy the needs of San Diego and -- San Diegan's to the middle of the century. Joining me as senior principal of London advisors that conducted the study for the Chamber. Welcome back, Gary. How far below the housing goals are we? >> We can take one set of numbers that we look at for the county, projections that were made by Sandag for the years 2012 through 2020. They had a targeted 65,000 units to be built we have 42,000 units still to build. We are halfway at that point. That means that we have a deficiency of 20,000 units right now. The deficiencies are very significant both in the unincorporated areas and the incorporated areas. We will not reach the goal at all. >>> You're report says that in San Diego there is a disconnect between where the jobs are expected to be and where the housing can be built can you explain that for us? >> The core part of the study was to marry our economy with the housing crisis. I discovered over the years that the talk about a housing crisis does not resonate to people who own a home. What we are trying to do in this report is to help people understand that our very economic sustenance is tied to the ability to house people affordably. One of the key takeaways from the report is that we tend to house people in the South County but we employ people in the North County. That is the disconnect. What is that cause? That causes longer commutes, more carbon footprint and pollution issues, greater stress, and in fact we have discovered in this report to a survey we did that it is what keeps employers up at night. >>> What are some of the other ways housing shortages affect our economy. >> What we have discovered over the past 10 years and beyond is that our level of domestic net migration has gone lower. So most of our growth is attributed to natural increase, once they get to adult age, they leave. Why do they leave? Because they cannot establish an employment or economic foothold in San Diego. That is a tragedy for our region. It has never been like that. Brought the whole last half of the 20th century most of our growth was attributable to net immigration. That was seen we had jobs and economic growth. We have economic growth but just barely holding on. If and when, the operative word is when, when the cycle turns we are not in a good position. >>> One of the good inclusions he found is that the region has passed the so-called peak urban millennial culture and needs to build more single-family housing. What does that mean? >> Most of the housing that has been built in the region over the past 10 years has been Apartments. Some condominiums but most multi family units. That was fine when the great book get -- bucket of our population was millennials in their 20s and early 30s. What has happened is we are now post peak urban millennial which means the oldest millennial's are well into their mid-to-late 30s. They are raising families. Most of them are not going to raise their families in an apartment. That is another disconnect. We need to build more single-family housing. >>> The state has enacted laws attempting to streamline the approval process for new construction. Do you expect that to have a positive effect? >> Yes. It is a way The state tells the municipalities you have been bad at this, you let the needs overcome the communities and decision-making. You have to do a better job. We will force you to do a better job. The problem is it does not deal with the disconnect associated with the kind of housing we need. The emphasis has been urban transit urban development. We need that also boat where we are especially deficient is in family housing that we have traditionally accommodated in the suburbs. The problem is we ran out of suburbs except for the unincorporated areas of San Diego County. >>> You listed the number of kinds of single-family housing that we don't think of a single family housing. >> Is the same thing that the various minister polities can get their arms around. It is what I call row homes and townhome. Utilizing the precious lessening amounts of land we have in our region that is available for development and stuffing more built environment or housing on it. The way you do that is to create a smaller lot so that you don't have a traditional backyard or front yard. The separation is very close. But the bill tome can be about the same size. 1500 2000 feet that's plenty to accommodate families of four or five people. We can do a better job and that department. I like that solution because it does not fundamentally change the character of the buildings. I think that is the one thing that bothers people the most. >>> There is an ominous line in this report that states has Pat -- time passes the consequences of housing shortage will be irreversible why? >> What is happening now is we are building 4 to 8 housing -- 4 to 8 thousand housing units a year when we should have 40 to 80,000 housing units a year. The more time that passes where we increased that deficiency, the more complicated the problem becomes for our San Diego regional economy. What it does is it bids up housing prices. >>> I have been speaking of the new San Diego housing study at the economic impacts with Gary London. Thank you so much, Gary. >> You are very welcome.

An analysis of San Diego County’s housing crisis finds that the lack of affordable housing is beginning to affect the region’s economy.

The report, commissioned by the San Diego Regional Chamber of Commerce, is a follow-up to one conducted in 2016. According to the numbers in the report, the region is not meeting the housing goals needed to meet demand and not building the types of housing that will satisfy the needs of San Diegans through the middle of the century.

Gary London, senior principal at the real estate analysis firm London Moeder Advisors, joins Midday Edition Thursday to discuss the report findings.